College Football Playoff Betting Frenzy: Ohio State and Underdogs Steal the Spotlight
As the College Football Playoff (CFP) approaches, excitement is reaching a fever pitch, especially among bettors. Bookmakers are buzzing with activity, estimating that a whopping 90% of the action on the opening round will be placed this week. The anticipation is palpable as fans and gamblers alike gear up for the four on-campus games kicking off this Friday. The action starts with an intriguing in-state clash featuring the beloved underdog Indiana Hoosiers and culminates in a potential redemption game for the Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday night at the iconic Horseshoe.
Point spreads were released last week when the CFP bracket was unveiled, and they’ve remained relatively stable. The higher seeds, including the Texas Longhorns, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Penn State Nittany Lions, and Ohio State Buckeyes, are all favored by at least a touchdown. Meanwhile, the Oregon Ducks, Georgia Bulldogs, and two long shots, the Boise State Broncos and Arizona State Sun Devils, are eagerly awaiting the winners of these opening-round games.
Toughest Road to Glory
The top half of the CFP bracket is a veritable gauntlet, featuring the top three teams in most oddsmakers’ power ratings: Oregon, Texas, and Ohio State, albeit in varying orders. It’s a consensus among oddsmakers that the team emerging from this half of the bracket will likely be favored in the championship game.
Ed Salmons, a seasoned oddsmaker for the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, shared his insights with ESPN, saying, “That half of the bracket is just so much harder than the other one. You basically could argue that there are three teams that could be No. 1 seeds.”
Currently, Oregon and Texas are listed as approximately +350 co-favorites to win the national championship at ESPN BET and other sportsbooks. Georgia, at +400, is ahead of Ohio State (+500) at ESPN BET, but this is primarily due to the Bulldogs having a seemingly easier path to the championship game, which will be held on January 20 in Atlanta.
Oddsmakers suggest that Ohio State would likely be favored over Georgia, especially considering the Bulldogs’ injury situation at quarterback.
Georgia’s Odds Reflect Backup QB Situation
Early lookahead lines for second-round games have Georgia as a slight underdog to Notre Dame, a reflection of the Bulldogs being quarterbacked by backup redshirt sophomore Gunner Stockton. Starter Carson Beck injured his right elbow late in the second half of the SEC Championship Game and was sidelined for all but one play in the second half. Despite this, Georgia triumphed, defeating Texas for the second time this season.
Georgia head coach Kirby Smart mentioned last week that Beck underwent an MRI and was evaluating his options. The university has not provided a timeline for Beck’s potential return, but oddsmakers aren’t expecting him to play in Georgia’s quarterfinal game on January 1.
Joey Feazel, who oversees college football odds for Caesars Sportsbook, stated, “At this time, we are pricing Georgia with Carson Beck doubtful at best. The strength of the Bulldogs is not their QB, so we do not expect a large decrease in their probability of winning the national championship.”
Salmons of the SuperBook highlighted the challenge of assessing Stockton’s capabilities after just one half of football and noted that the Bulldogs have been inconsistent offensively, even with Beck at the helm.
“It’s an unknown right now,” he said. “Usually when a quarterback goes out, you drop a team seven points in the power ratings. But I don’t know how much to drop this Georgia team.”
Despite the quarterback uncertainties, Georgia remains a favorite to reach the semifinal round at sportsbooks and boasts the best odds of any team to make the championship game at +130 at ESPN BET.
Ohio State’s Enduring Appeal Among Bettors
The betting public is heavily invested in Ohio State to win the national championship. More bets have been placed and more money wagered on the Buckeyes to win the CFP than any other team at multiple sportsbooks. Oddsmakers maintain that Ohio State remains at or near the top of their power ratings, even after their shocking loss to Michigan.
In one of the season’s biggest upsets, the Buckeyes fell as three-touchdown home favorites to the Wolverines. However, this did not deter the betting public’s interest in Ohio State. In the first 24 hours following the Michigan loss, ESPN BET reported receiving more action on the Buckeyes than any other team.
Ohio State appeared conservative and tense against the Wolverines, particularly quarterback Will Howard. Nevertheless, oddsmakers still believe the Buckeyes possess the talent to potentially play at the highest level of football.
“They got sucked into Michigan’s game and then they played conservative in the second half,” Salmons said. “Hopefully, they learned a lesson from it, from their end. The lesson of how not to do it when you’ve got so much more talent than the other team. We know their talent.”
Ohio State opened as a consensus 7-point home favorite over Tennessee in its first-round matchup on Saturday in Columbus.
“The only sharp action we’ve seen was as soon as we put Ohio State -7, one of our sharper players laid seven right off the bat,” Salmons said.
Early Action on Underdog Hoosiers
Bettors are rallying behind Indiana in their cross-state first-round matchup with Notre Dame. Notre Dame started the week as a 7-point favorite, but the early action favored the underdog Hoosiers, particularly at sportsbooks located in Indiana. As of Monday at BetMGM’s Indiana sportsbooks, seven out of every ten bets on the game’s point spread were on the Hoosiers.
Feazel of Caesars Sportsbook noted, “The only opinionated sharp action we have seen for the first-round games has been on the Indiana Hoosiers at +7.5. The sharp action we have seen thus far has been to a minimum. I expect to see some sharper action in the middle of this week on the first-round playoff games.”
Salmons of the SuperBook mentioned that as of Sunday, the largest bet they had taken on a CFP game was $40,000 on Indiana +7.5, placed last week in Las Vegas.
“I was surprised to see a bet that big that early,” Salmons said. “We’re pretty one-sided [on Indiana] right now, but it’s still early. Usually, 90% of the money comes in Friday and Saturday.”
Chris Andrews, a veteran Las Vegas sportsbook director at the South Point casino, opened the Fighting Irish as 9-point favorites, higher than other sportsbooks, and quickly took bets on the Hoosiers. Within three days of opening, Andrews had dropped the line to Notre Dame -7.
“I like Notre Dame, so I opened that a little high,” Andrews said. “I’ve got a lot of action on that game.”
Originally Written by: David Purdum
