Women’s Final Four: Can UConn Overcome the Odds?

The 2025 Women’s Final Four: A Clash of Titans in Tampa

TAMPA, Fla. — The 2025 women’s Final Four has finally arrived, and it’s shaping up to be a thrilling showdown between some of the best teams in college basketball. This year, we have a No. 2 seed and three No. 1 seeds battling it out in Friday’s national semifinals. It’s a lineup that promises excitement and drama, with each team bringing its own unique strengths to the court.

The first game of the evening, scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, is an SEC showdown between the Texas Longhorns and the South Carolina Gamecocks. These two teams have already faced off three times this season, with the defending NCAA champion Gamecocks holding a 2-1 advantage over the Longhorns. It’s worth noting that this is Texas’s first Final Four appearance since 2003, adding an extra layer of anticipation to the matchup.

Later in the evening, at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN, the UCLA Bruins will take on the UConn Huskies. These two teams haven’t met since November 2023 during a Thanksgiving event in the Cayman Islands, where the Bruins emerged victorious. However, UConn holds a 7-1 advantage in their overall series. While the Bruins are making their first NCAA Final Four appearance, the Huskies have been a fixture in this stage, having played in 16 of the past 17 Final Fours and 24 overall.

Despite the rich history of these programs, players and coaches emphasized on Thursday that past achievements have little bearing on the present. ESPN takes a closer look at the matchups, offering predictions on the winners and which team will ultimately cut down the nets after Sunday’s title game at 3 p.m. ET on ABC.

UCLA: The Overlooked No. 1 Seed?

Katie Barnes: It’s interesting to see how sportsbooks are treating the Bruins as underdogs, with ESPN BET listing UCLA as a 7.5-point underdog. While I’ve picked the Huskies to win this matchup, it’s important to acknowledge that UCLA is a formidable team. They have Lauren Betts and have only suffered a loss to USC this year. In today’s competitive landscape of women’s college basketball, it’s nearly impossible to go through a season without any “bad losses.” UCLA has managed to do just that, especially in the challenging Big Ten conference. The Bruins are more than capable of giving UConn a tough fight and potentially winning on Friday night. They seem to have a chip on their shoulder about being underestimated.

Andrea Adelson: During a news conference on Thursday, I began a question to UCLA coach Cori Close with, “You are the No. 1 overall seed…” and she quickly interjected, saying it didn’t feel that way based on the coverage UCLA has received all season. With UConn being the favorite and having extensive Final Four experience, it’s understandable why UCLA is perceived as the underdog. Paige Bueckers and Geno Auriemma naturally draw attention, and while the Bruins have spent more time at No. 1 this season, it’s easy to fall back on the team with a storied history. “This is this year’s UConn team, not the last 10 or 20 years of UConn teams, and this is our UCLA team,” Close said. “I have a lot of confidence, both mentally and physically and tactically, in this UCLA team.”

Michael Voepel: The Bruins have maintained a steady demeanor throughout the season. However, they’ve also displayed more grit and determination than they did last year when they were eliminated in the Sweet 16 by LSU. Guard Kiki Rice and forward Angela Dugalic credit junior forward Janiah Barker, a transfer from Texas A&M, for bringing a new edge and mentality to the team. “She’s done a great job just bringing a different edge, a mentality to our team,” Rice said. “It started in the summer in pickup. I think that toughness and mentality shift in confidence — where we expect to find a way to win — is something we really needed.”

All of this, combined with their talent, suggests that the Bruins might not be the underdogs they appear to be. While these programs differ significantly in Final Four experience and history, UCLA should be able to make this a highly competitive game.

Can Anyone Slow Down UConn’s Paige Bueckers?

Alexa Philippou: This version of Bueckers seems different from previous years. Auriemma has noted that Bueckers is playing with less pressure this postseason compared to last year when she felt the need to score 30-35 points a night for the Huskies to win. This year, she’s putting up impressive numbers — 105 points and 59.1% shooting from the field and 61.9% on 3-pointers over the past three games — because she wants to. “She’s got a whole different vibe about her,” Auriemma said. “Maybe she’s lighter, she’s not putting as much pressure on herself, and it’s just coming easier.”

UCLA will likely focus on limiting the Huskies’ 3-point attempts, backdoor cuts, and defensive rebounding, as these factors are key predictors of UConn’s success. Bueckers’ efficiency has been remarkable, but the Huskies have other players who can hit from deep, including Azzi Fudd, Sarah Strong, and Ashlynn Shade. It’s a formidable challenge, especially if they can get out in transition.

Voepel: Bueckers is so locked in that it seems unlikely she can be slowed down much. UCLA knows that. So the Bruins’ focus might be more on trying to make her work a little harder for her points and being as physical as they can be with her. But Bueckers is the type of player who almost constantly rises to the occasion, no matter how big the occasion is.

Lauren Betts: The X Factor in the Final Four?

Philippou: The Huskies don’t have a dominant center who matches up with Betts, but Auriemma knows about coaching such players. “When we came [to the Final Four] with Kara [Wolters],” Auriemma said Thursday, “I thought it’s impossible for us to lose.” At 6-foot-7, Wolters was a key member of the Huskies’ 1994-95 championship team that went 35-0. Also 6-7, Betts has proved to be that difference-maker all season for the Bruins.

“It doesn’t matter what’s going on on the offensive end,” Auriemma said Thursday. “When it all breaks down and you really need a bucket bad, you got something nobody else has, and that’s what [the Bruins] have.”

But UCLA isn’t just Betts. The Bruins surround her with shooters who can knock down 3-pointers, and she excels in passing out of double teams. That’s why Bueckers said the Huskies have to pick their poison: Is it best to prioritize slowing down Betts or shutting down the Bruins’ shooters? We’ll find out what the Huskies think early on Friday.

Voepel: As Alexa said, super high-quality centers are rarer than any type of player, so Betts stands out in this Final Four. And she has proved herself to be a big-game player who can be dominant on offense and defense. If she has a monster game, UCLA’s odds of making the final become particularly good. Betts is the biggest reason, in fact, I’m picking the Bruins to win.

South Carolina’s Joyce Edwards: Ready for a Comeback?

Adelson: South Carolina coach Dawn Staley said last week that to win the national championship, the Gamecocks will need more production out of Edwards than they have gotten in the past three NCAA tournament games, where she scored a combined 15 points. Edwards had some of her least productive games of the season in the three previous meetings against Texas, so at this point — given not only that history but the recent NCAA tournament history — it is hard to envision a breakout game, particularly since Texas plays smothering defense and has limited the leading scorers of its past three opponents to well below their averages.

Philippou: The thing about South Carolina is that even if Edwards isn’t playing great, teammates are stepping up around her, primarily Sania Feagin and Chloe Kitts, who was the SEC tournament MVP and the Birmingham Regional 2 Most Outstanding Player. Kitts leads the team in scoring this postseason at 14.1 points per game on 60.3% shooting from the field, the bump in production something she feels is a product of her increased confidence. While Staley surely wants Edwards to return to form, it at least helps to have Kitts playing at such a high level.

Voepel: While Edwards hasn’t played well of late, it should be to her advantage that the Gamecocks are playing Texas next. Staley said in Birmingham that things come at players quickly once the NCAA tournament starts, which can be especially hard for a freshman. But Edwards already knows Texas well, scoring 10 and 11 points against the Longhorns in the Gamecocks’ two wins. Edwards said Thursday she hasn’t been through many “slumps” as a player, and she’s ready to end this one.

Texas vs. South Carolina: The Winning Formula

Adelson: Let’s be clear: Texas beat South Carolina just a few months back, ending the Gamecocks’ 57-game SEC regular-season winning streak. South Carolina has shown vulnerabilities throughout the season, and its 67-50 loss in January wasn’t particularly close. This is a Gamecocks team that can go cold at times because of its poor shot selection and has a propensity for careless mistakes. In the earlier loss, multiple players got into foul trouble, which Staley said forced South Carolina to change its rotation of players and got the team out of sync. Texas has a formidable defense, so that is No. 1. If Madison Booker can continue with the production she has had the past four games, the Longhorns will give themselves a chance to win.

Philippou: The Longhorns’ defense has consistently held the Gamecocks in the 60s this season, but Texas has scored anywhere from 45 to 66 points against them. While posts Taylor Jones and Kyla Oldacre will have to have big nights for Texas to win, no player is as important to the Longhorns’ success as Booker. In the Longhorns’ pair of losses to the Gamecocks, she scored 17 combined points on 7-for-32 shooting. In the Longhorns’ win? Twenty points on 7-for-22 shooting. She didn’t shoot efficiently, but it was just enough with what Jones and Oldacre did to get Texas the win

Voepel: Booker’s pull-up midrange jump shot makes her so dangerous and difficult to guard. South Carolina defensive specialist Bree Hall said Thursday that kind of shot causes more trouble for defenders than any other because it is hard to stop. We should also mention freshmen guards Jordan Lee and Bryanna Preston, who combined for 25 points off the bench in Texas’ Sweet 16 victory over Tennessee. Both can help provide a lifeline for Texas’ offense. Booker also complimented the youngsters on helping the rest of the Longhorns stay loose and relaxed.

Predictions: Who Will Advance to the Title Game?

• Adelson: South Carolina, UConn
• Barnes: South Carolina, UConn
• Philippou: South Carolina, UConn
• Voepel: South Carolina, UCLA

Who Will Win the NCAA Championship?

Adelson: UConn. The Huskies are the most talented team top to bottom, starting with Bueckers, who seems to be on a mission to etch her name among the all-time UConn greats with a national championship of her own. UConn is playing its best basketball at the right time.

Barnes: UConn. My gut tells me UConn. Bueckers is playing like she desperately wants a championship. She’s taking over games in a way I haven’t seen her do consistently since the last time the Huskies played for a title, back in 2022. (Who could forget that double-overtime thriller against NC State?) It’s hard to pick against the best player remaining in the tournament, and Bueckers is that player.

Philippou: UConn. Aside from what Katie and Andrea said about Bueckers, the trio of Bueckers, Strong and Fudd is what makes the Huskies most dangerous. That’s the best collection of talent left in the tournament, and combined with the coaching of Auriemma and the rest of their depth, is enough to get the Huskies back on the mountaintop.

Voepel: South Carolina. The Gamecocks know what’s in them: The ability to bombard teams with so many scoring options. We didn’t see that against Duke in the Elite Eight, but it’s happened many times this season. If South Carolina can utilize its bench effectively and put together some good scoring spurts — along with the good defense that is always expected — the Gamecocks can bring another trophy home.