Women’s Final Four 2025: Can UConn Overcome the Odds?

Women’s Final Four 2025: A Clash of Titans in Tampa

TAMPA, Fla. — The 2025 women’s Final Four is finally here, and it’s shaping up to be a thrilling showdown between some of the best teams in college basketball. With a No. 2 seed and three No. 1 seeds, the stage is set for an epic battle in Friday’s national semifinals.

The first game, scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, is an SEC showdown between the Texas Longhorns and the South Carolina Gamecocks. These two teams have already faced each other three times this season, with the defending NCAA champion Gamecocks holding a 2-1 advantage over the Longhorns. This marks Texas’s first Final Four appearance since 2003, adding an extra layer of excitement to the matchup.

In the second game, set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN, the UCLA Bruins will take on the UConn Huskies. These teams last met in November 2023 during a Thanksgiving event in the Cayman Islands, where the Bruins emerged victorious. However, UConn holds a 7-1 advantage in their series history. While this is UCLA’s first NCAA Final Four appearance, the Huskies have been a dominant force, appearing in 16 of the past 17 Final Fours and 24 overall.

Despite the history and statistics, players and coaches emphasized on Thursday that past performances have little bearing on the present. ESPN takes a closer look at the matchups, offering predictions on who will advance to Sunday’s title game at 3 p.m. ET on ABC.

UCLA: The Overlooked No. 1 Seed?

Katie Barnes: It’s interesting to note that sportsbooks are treating the Bruins as underdogs, with ESPN BET listing UCLA as a 7.5-point underdog. While I picked the Huskies to win, it’s important to acknowledge that UCLA is a formidable team. With standout player Lauren Betts leading the charge, the Bruins have only been defeated by USC this year. In today’s competitive landscape of women’s college basketball, avoiding “bad losses” is a significant achievement, especially in deep conferences like the Big Ten. UCLA has managed to do just that, and they are more than capable of challenging UConn and potentially winning on Friday night. It seems they have a chip on their shoulder about being underestimated.

Andrea Adelson: During a news conference on Thursday, I began a question to UCLA coach Cori Close with, “You are the No. 1 overall seed…” and she quickly interjected, noting that it hasn’t felt that way based on the coverage UCLA has received all season. With UConn being the favorite and having extensive Final Four experience, it’s understandable why UCLA is perceived as the underdog. Paige Bueckers and Geno Auriemma are major talking points, and while UCLA has spent more time at No. 1 this season, it’s easy to default to the team with a storied history. Close expressed confidence in her team, both mentally and physically, stating, “This is this year’s UConn’s team, not the last 10 or 20 years of UConn teams, and this is our UCLA team.”

Michael Voepel: The Bruins have maintained a steady demeanor throughout the season, but they’ve also shown a level of grit and determination that was perhaps lacking last year when they were eliminated in the Sweet 16 by LSU. Guard Kiki Rice and forward Angela Dugalic credited junior forward Janiah Barker, a transfer from Texas A&M, for bringing a new edge and mentality to the team. “She’s done a great job just bringing a different edge, a mentality to our team,” Rice said. “It started in the summer in pickup. I think that toughness and mentality shift in confidence — where we expect to find a way to win — is something we really needed.”

All of these factors, combined with their talent, suggest that the Bruins may not be the underdogs they appear to be. While UCLA and UConn are miles apart in terms of Final Four experience and history, UCLA is poised to make this a highly competitive game.

Can Anyone Slow Down UConn’s Paige Bueckers?

Alexa Philippou: This postseason, Bueckers seems to be playing with a different mindset. Auriemma has noted that she appears to be under less pressure compared to last year when she felt the need to score 30-35 points a night for the Huskies to win. This year, she’s putting up impressive numbers — 105 points and 59.1% shooting from the field, along with 61.9% on 3-pointers over the past three games — because she wants to. “She’s got a whole different vibe about her,” Auriemma said. “Maybe she’s lighter, she’s not putting as much pressure on herself, and it’s just coming easier.”

UCLA will likely focus on limiting UConn’s 3-point attempts, backdoor cuts, and defensive rebounding, as these are key predictors of the Huskies’ success. Bueckers’ efficiency has been remarkable, but UConn has other players who can score from deep, including Azzi Fudd, Sarah Strong, and Ashlynn Shade. It’s a challenging task to stop them, especially if they can get out in transition.

Voepel: Bueckers is so focused that it seems unlikely she can be slowed down significantly. UCLA is aware of this, so their strategy might involve making her work harder for her points and being as physical as possible with her. However, Bueckers is the type of player who consistently rises to the occasion, regardless of the stakes.

Lauren Betts: The X Factor in the Final Four?

Philippou: The Huskies lack a dominant center to match up with Betts, but Auriemma is no stranger to coaching such players. “When we came [to the Final Four] with Kara [Wolters],” Auriemma said Thursday, “I thought it’s impossible for us to lose.” At 6-foot-7, Wolters was a key member of the Huskies’ 1994-95 championship team that went 35-0. Similarly, Betts, also 6-7, has been a game-changer for the Bruins all season.

“It doesn’t matter what’s going on on the offensive end,” Auriemma said Thursday. “When it all breaks down and you really need a bucket bad, you got something nobody else has, and that’s what [the Bruins] have.”

But UCLA isn’t just about Betts. The Bruins have a strong supporting cast of shooters who can hit 3-pointers, and Betts excels at passing out of double teams. This versatility is why Bueckers mentioned that the Huskies have to choose their strategy carefully: Should they focus on slowing down Betts or shutting down the Bruins’ shooters? We’ll see what the Huskies decide early on Friday.

Voepel: As Alexa mentioned, high-quality centers are rare, making Betts a standout in this Final Four. She has proven herself to be a big-game player, capable of dominating on both offense and defense. If she has a standout performance, UCLA’s chances of reaching the final increase significantly. Betts is the primary reason I’m picking the Bruins to win.

South Carolina’s Joyce Edwards: Ready for a Comeback?

Adelson: South Carolina coach Dawn Staley emphasized last week that to win the national championship, the Gamecocks need more production from Edwards, who has scored a combined 15 points in the past three NCAA tournament games. Edwards struggled in the three previous meetings against Texas, making it difficult to envision a breakout game, especially given Texas’s strong defense, which has limited leading scorers of its past three opponents to well below their averages.

Philippou: Despite Edwards’s recent struggles, South Carolina has other players stepping up, notably Sania Feagin and Chloe Kitts, who was the SEC tournament MVP and the Birmingham Regional 2 Most Outstanding Player. Kitts leads the team in scoring this postseason with 14.1 points per game on 60.3% shooting from the field, attributing her increased production to growing confidence. While Staley wants Edwards to return to form, having Kitts perform at a high level is a significant advantage.

Voepel: Although Edwards hasn’t been at her best lately, facing Texas could work in her favor. Staley mentioned in Birmingham that the NCAA tournament can be overwhelming for players, especially freshmen. However, Edwards is familiar with Texas, having scored 10 and 11 points against them in the Gamecocks’ two wins. Edwards expressed her determination to end her slump, stating that she hasn’t experienced many “slumps” as a player and is ready to bounce back.

Texas’s Strategy to Defeat South Carolina

Adelson: It’s important to remember that Texas defeated South Carolina just a few months ago, ending the Gamecocks’ 57-game SEC regular-season winning streak. South Carolina has shown vulnerabilities throughout the season, and their 67-50 loss in January wasn’t particularly close. The Gamecocks can struggle with poor shot selection and careless mistakes. In the earlier loss, multiple players got into foul trouble, disrupting South Carolina’s rotation and rhythm. Texas’s formidable defense is key, and if Madison Booker continues her recent production, the Longhorns have a chance to win.

Philippou: Texas’s defense has consistently held South Carolina in the 60s this season, but their own scoring has varied from 45 to 66 points against the Gamecocks. While posts Taylor Jones and Kyla Oldacre need to perform well, no player is more crucial to Texas’s success than Booker. In the Longhorns’ losses to South Carolina, she scored 17 combined points on 7-for-32 shooting. In their win, she scored 20 points on 7-for-22 shooting. Although her shooting wasn’t efficient, it was enough, along with contributions from Jones and Oldacre, to secure the victory.

Voepel: Booker’s pull-up midrange jump shot makes her a formidable and challenging player to defend. South Carolina’s defensive specialist Bree Hall noted that this type of shot is particularly difficult to stop. Additionally, freshmen guards Jordan Lee and Bryanna Preston contributed 25 points off the bench in Texas’s Sweet 16 victory over Tennessee. Their presence can provide a boost to Texas’s offense, and Booker praised the young players for helping the team stay relaxed and focused.

Predictions: Who Will Advance to the Title Game?

• Adelson: South Carolina, UConn
• Barnes: South Carolina, UConn
• Philippou: South Carolina, UConn
• Voepel: South Carolina, UCLA

Who Will Win the NCAA Championship?

Adelson: UConn. The Huskies are the most talented team from top to bottom, starting with Bueckers, who seems determined to secure a national championship and etch her name among UConn’s all-time greats. UConn is playing its best basketball at the right time.

Barnes: UConn. My gut tells me UConn. Bueckers is playing like she desperately wants a championship. She’s taking over games in a way I haven’t seen her do consistently since the last time the Huskies played for a title, back in 2022. (Who could forget that double-overtime thriller against NC State?) It’s hard to pick against the best player remaining in the tournament, and Bueckers is that player.

Philippou: UConn. Aside from what Katie and Andrea said about Bueckers, the trio of Bueckers, Strong, and Fudd is what makes the Huskies most dangerous. That’s the best collection of talent left in the tournament, and combined with the coaching of Auriemma and the rest of their depth, is enough to get the Huskies back on the mountaintop.

Voepel: South Carolina. The Gamecocks know what’s in them: The ability to bombard teams with so many scoring options. We didn’t see that against Duke in the Elite Eight, but it’s happened many times this season. If South Carolina can utilize its bench effectively and put together some good scoring spurts — along with the good defense that is always expected — the Gamecocks can bring another trophy home.