The Road to the 2025 Women’s Final Four: Surprises, Disappointments, and Predictions
As we find ourselves at the midpoint of the 2024-25 women’s college basketball season, the excitement is palpable. With two months down and two to go, the journey to the 2025 women’s Final Four in Tampa is heating up. This season has been anything but predictable, offering plenty of unexpected twists and turns. Unlike last year, when South Carolina was the clear favorite on its way to an undefeated season, this year, there is no obvious national title front-runner.
One of the standout stories of the season has been Hannah Hidalgo from Notre Dame, who has emerged as the favorite for Player of the Year. This development comes after preseason predictions pointed to a two-player race between JuJu Watkins of USC and Paige Bueckers of UConn. But as league competition progresses, everything is still up for grabs. January promises some intriguing matchups, with four Top 25 games scheduled for Thursday alone, and the second half of the season could bring even more surprises.
ESPN’s women’s college basketball experts have been busy analyzing this season’s biggest surprises and disappointments. They’ve also revisited their November predictions, updating their thoughts on conference champions, end-of-season awards, Final Four teams, and more.
Biggest Surprises of the Season
Michael Voepel: The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have been a revelation. Picked 10th in the ACC preseason poll, they now stand at 15-0 overall and 3-0 in the league. Freshman Dani Carnegie is averaging 16.0 points and shooting 42.1% from 3-point range. Alongside juniors Kara Dunn and Tonie Morgan, they form a formidable backcourt on a guard-heavy team that averages 9.4 3-pointers per game. Coach Nell Fortner, in her sixth season, has led the team to NCAA tournament appearances in 2021 and 2022. With two big road tests against Louisville and Notre Dame looming, the Yellow Jackets are buzzing with potential.
Charlie Creme: Vanderbilt has also been a pleasant surprise. After leading the Commodores to their first NCAA tournament since 2014, Shea Ralph has them off to a 14-2 start. Sophomore Khamil Pierre (22.8 PPG) and freshman Mikayla Blakes (20.6 PPG) are the top scoring duo in the nation and lead a team that tops the country in steals. Despite a recent loss to Kentucky, Vanderbilt looks like an NCAA tournament team that could threaten for a top-four seed.
Alexa Philippou: The Tennessee Lady Volunteers have been intriguing under Kim Caldwell’s first year. Her unorthodox style of play, characterized by fast-paced action, full-court pressure, and frequent 3-point shots, has translated well to the Power 4 and SEC. Despite a recent loss to Oklahoma, the Lady Vols have shown promise, winning their first 13 games. With Caldwell’s recruiting and entertaining brand of basketball, Tennessee fans have reason to be excited.
Preseason Misjudgments
Philippou: I underestimated Maryland. Ranked No. 23 in my preseason poll, they now sit eighth in the country at 14-1. With 10 new players, including seven transfers, Brenda Frese’s squad has coalesced quickly. They beat Duke early in the season and have shown a strong defense. Despite a recent loss to USC, Maryland looks like a Final Four contender.
Voepel: I thought Iowa State was the best team in the Big 12, but they haven’t lived up to expectations. At 11-6 overall and 2-2 in the league, they’ve struggled against top teams like South Carolina and UConn. While sophomores Audi Crooks and Addy Brown are performing well, the team hasn’t taken the expected step forward.
Creme: I thought it would take time for Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles to develop chemistry at Notre Dame, but they hit the ground running. Their impressive performances against top teams like USC, UConn, and Texas have shown their seamless integration.
Biggest Disappointments
Kendra Andrews: Iowa State was ranked No. 8 in the preseason poll but is now unranked. A stunning loss to Northern Iowa and struggles against top teams have been disappointing. There’s still time for them to turn things around, but they’ve been a letdown so far.
Creme: UConn hasn’t gotten as much out of Kaitlyn Chen as expected. Her point guard skills were supposed to ease the burden on younger guards, but she’s averaging just 6.1 points per game. UConn needs more from Chen to contend for a national title.
Philippou: Stanford has been a disappointment. With a 0-3 record in the ACC, they’re in danger of missing the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1987. The departure of key players and a coaching change have contributed to their struggles.
Title Contenders
Voepel: I’m sticking with South Carolina to win the 2025 NCAA title. Despite losing Ashlyn Watkins to injury, their depth and experience make them formidable. Coach Dawn Staley has plenty of options in the post, and their balanced scoring and defense make them tough to beat.
Creme: I agree with Voepel. South Carolina’s championship pedigree and depth make them the team to beat. Joyce Edwards will be key to their success, especially with Watkins out.
Andrews: I’m picking Notre Dame to snatch the title. Their nonconference wins over UConn and USC show their potential. With Hidalgo and Miles forming a dynamic backcourt and Maddy Westbeld returning, they have the depth and talent to go all the way.
Philippou: I’m going with UCLA. Their undefeated record and depth make them a strong contender. With Lauren Betts playing like an All-American and a versatile roster, they have the tools to win it all.
Key Factors for the Season’s Outcome
Creme: Three key games will determine the No. 1 seeds: South Carolina at Texas on Jan. 12, Texas at South Carolina on Feb. 9, and UConn at South Carolina on Feb. 16. These matchups will likely decide the SEC title and could influence the national championship race.
Philippou: Health will be crucial. Injuries have impacted teams like Notre Dame and UConn in recent seasons. Keeping key players healthy will be vital for title contenders.
Voepel: The Final Four matchups will be decisive. Teams with experience in high-pressure situations, like South Carolina and UConn, have an edge. For less-experienced teams, facing another newcomer in the semifinals could be advantageous.
- Which team will win the ACC? Notre Dame
- Which team will win the Big Ten? UCLA
- Which team will win the Big 12? Kansas State
- Which team will win the SEC? South Carolina
- Which teams will reach the Final Four? South Carolina, UCLA, Notre Dame, USC
- Which team will win the NCAA title? Notre Dame over South Carolina
- Who will be the national player of the year? Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame
- Who will be the freshman of the year? Sarah Strong, UConn
- Who will win coach of the year? Niele Ivey, Notre Dame
- Which players will make the All-America first team? JuJu Watkins, USC; Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame; Paige Bueckers, UConn; Ta’Niya Latson, Florida State
Originally Written by: ESPN
