The Formula 1 Offseason: A Time for Speculation and Predictions
The Formula 1 offseason is upon us, and what better time to indulge in some speculation about the upcoming season? The 2025 F1 campaign is shaping up to be a thrilling one for a multitude of reasons. With Lewis Hamilton‘s high-profile move to Ferrari and a field that promises to be as competitive as last year, this season might just be the hardest to predict in recent memory. Preseason testing in Bahrain from February 26-28 might offer some insights, but with just over a month until the Australian Grand Prix, let’s dive into a few bold predictions for 2025.
Leclerc to Outshine Hamilton Early On
The buzz around Ferrari’s new driver lineup of Hamilton and Charles Leclerc has been palpable. Hamilton’s move to Ferrari has been the talk of the town, and his early days in the iconic red have captured the imagination of fans worldwide. The burning question is: who will come out on top? While it’s challenging to predict over a 24-race season, there are compelling reasons to believe Leclerc will have a stronger start.
Why this isn’t far-fetched: Hamilton had a rollercoaster final year with Mercedes, whereas Leclerc has been in top form. From the summer break onward, Leclerc arguably was F1’s best driver, with victories in Monza and Austin, adding to his earlier win in Monaco. His performance helped Ferrari challenge McLaren in the constructors’ championship, and his past inconsistency issues seem to be diminishing.
Ferrari’s 2024 resurgence was built on improving the SF-24, which had previously faded during races. This improvement means Leclerc, known for his qualifying prowess, can convert strong grid positions into wins and podiums more frequently. This year’s car is expected to be similar.
On the other hand, Hamilton, despite being statistically the greatest qualifier, has struggled with one-lap pace in the new generation of cars since 2022. “I’m just slow. Same every weekend,” he lamented in Qatar last November. This will be crucial as Hamilton adjusts to Ferrari. The team’s race operations have improved under Frédéric Vasseur, enhancing the chances for whoever leads the team during a grand prix.
While Hamilton is expected to win races for Ferrari, a slower start compared to Leclerc seems plausible given their current trajectories.
Verstappen’s Potential Departure from Red Bull
With new regulations looming and Red Bull showing signs of strain in 2024, this year could be pivotal for Max Verstappen‘s career. Whether it happens in 2026 or 2027, this could be the year the four-time world champion decides his best chance under the new rules lies elsewhere.
Why this isn’t far-fetched: Red Bull’s 2024 was tumultuous, with team principal Christian Horner’s misconduct investigation and a rift with Verstappen’s father, Jos, making headlines. Design legend Adrian Newey and sporting director Jonathan Wheatley left for rivals. Despite winning seven of the first ten races, the team lost the constructors’ championship, with Verstappen’s talent keeping the drivers’ title at Red Bull.
The upcoming regulations will be a major focus. After this season, Honda will leave Red Bull for Aston Martin, while Red Bull will partner with Ford to produce its own engines—a significant challenge for a team with limited engine manufacturing experience.
Verstappen will have many suitors, including longtime admirer Toto Wolff. The Mercedes boss has expressed interest in signing Verstappen, and the door seems open. The Daily Mail recently suggested Aston Martin owner Lawrence Stroll is eyeing a £1 billion move for Verstappen.
Verstappen himself has not directly addressed his future, and although he is contracted until 2028, things can change quickly in F1. Being in the wrong place during a new regulation era would be a nightmare. Mercedes’ struggles since 2022, with Hamilton and George Russell limited to a few wins, illustrate how rapidly fortunes can shift.
If Red Bull’s 2024 issues continue into 2025, or doubts about the Ford partnership grow, other teams will sense an opportunity. If Mercedes or Aston Martin appear more promising long-term, Verstappen might consider a change, even if it means signing for a future season. Stay tuned.
Alonso’s Return to the Podium with Aston Martin
The 2024 season was tough for Aston Martin, especially after Fernando Alonso‘s impressive podium streak in 2023. With the team’s focus on the future, including a new factory in Silverstone and Newey’s arrival, the short term seemed bleak. However, Alonso could make a podium comeback this year.
Why this isn’t far-fetched: It’s Alonso, for one, but also because team owner Lawrence Stroll won’t tolerate another year of mediocrity. While Newey’s focus is on 2026 and beyond, Aston Martin’s new leadership, including ex-Mercedes engine chief Andy Cowell and former Ferrari man Enrico Cardile, aims for operational improvements. The new factory is still yielding benefits, and we should see more of that this season.
Aston Martin may not leap up the order, but the lead pack has converged, and opportunities could arise if the team improves. If that happens, Alonso is the driver you want in the cockpit.
A Rookie to Win a Race
Since Hamilton’s rookie win for McLaren in 2007, no rookie has achieved this feat, highlighting its difficulty. A driver needs talent and a capable car. This year might break that record.
Why this isn’t far-fetched: Two drivers might have the right combination this year.
- One is a pure rookie: Hamilton’s replacement, Italian wunderkind Andrea Kimi Antonelli, arrives in F1 with immense hype. Despite a rough practice debut at Monza, Mercedes believes in his pace. If the car is competitive, Antonelli could make a name for himself.
- The other is Red Bull’s Liam Lawson. Although he has 10 races under his belt, this is his first full F1 season. He will support Verstappen but aims to establish a baseline that Sergio Pérez couldn’t. Lawson’s aggressive style and confidence could lead to a grand prix win if he rises to the challenge.
Piastri to Lead the Championship at the Summer Break
For the first time in recent memory, McLaren enters a season as a favorite for both titles. Lando Norris won four races in 2024, with Oscar Piastri securing two. Both are expected to add to those numbers, but Piastri might be the early championship leader.
Why this isn’t far-fetched: Piastri’s rise has been remarkable. Norris was excellent, but McLaren anticipates challenges managing its two top drivers. The Hungary and Monza incidents highlighted management struggles. Piastri’s move on Norris in Italy was a statement of intent.
While Norris’ clutch performance in Abu Dhabi secured McLaren the constructors’ title, his inconsistent season means he faces more pressure in 2025. If Piastri can address his inconsistency, expect the Australian to underline his championship credentials.
Originally Written by: Nate Saunders
