LaLiga Title Race: Who Will Emerge Victorious?
As we return from the international break, the LaLiga title race is heating up with Atlético Madrid, Barcelona, and Real Madrid all vying for the top spot. The competition is fierce, and the stakes are high as each team harbors hopes of clinching the coveted title.
Since the start of the year, the top three teams have all experienced the highs of leading the league and the lows of being caught by the chasing pack. The most recent twist in this thrilling saga occurred on March 16 when Atlético, leading 2-0 against Barça with just 20 minutes left, ended up losing 4-2. This result brought Barça level with Madrid on 60 points, but they edged ahead due to their head-to-head record, courtesy of a stunning 4-0 victory at the Bernabéu in October. Atlético, meanwhile, are on 56 points.
Following Barça’s 3-0 win over Osasuna in their rearranged match on Thursday, each of the top three teams now has 10 LaLiga games left to play. Despite Hansi Flick’s side being three points clear after that win, this season has shown that there are still plenty of challenges ahead before any team can be crowned champions of Spain.
To delve deeper into the title race, ESPN’s Real Madrid correspondent Alex Kirkland and Barcelona correspondent Sam Marsden are joined by LaLiga experts Sid Lowe and Graham Hunter. They discuss the main talking points of the title race so far, look at what is to come, and, crucially, each predict their winner.
Who Were Your Title Favourites at the Start of the Season, and Are They Still Now?
Alex Kirkland: I backed Real Madrid to win LaLiga this season. It wasn’t a controversial suggestion: Madrid were reigning champions, and they’d just signed Kylian Mbappé. Simple. But two things caught me by surprise: Madrid’s all-round performance as a team getting worse, or at least becoming less consistent, post-Mbappé; and Barcelona’s near-instantaneous improvement under Hansi Flick.
Sam Marsden: Madrid were the obvious pick, but with the glorious benefit of hindsight, did we underestimate two Germans — Flick and Toni Kroos? The former has far exceeded all expectations at Barça so far; the latter’s retirement has left a gaping hole in Madrid’s midfield.
Sid Lowe: Carlo Ancelotti tried to tell us. Kroos, he said, even towards the end of last season, was the truly irreplaceable player. And while we’re talking in truths, Mbappé was a footballer they didn’t need. Note: need. Which isn’t to say it wasn’t good to have him, of course it was. He may well be the best player in the world, his performances have been good — yes, even early on when everyone was saying he was a problem — and there is probably no front line quite like theirs anywhere (although Barcelona have forced us into rethinking that.)
Graham Hunter: My refrain in August was: Atleti “should,” Barça “could”… but Madrid “will.” The ebb and flow over the subsequent months has been tremendous fun: sometimes confusing, but hugely entertaining. I hope it has won some converts to LaLiga, which is still, by some considerable distance, the best-quality championship in the world.
Why Has the League Leader Changed So Many Times?
Marsden: What is hard to explain is how quickly Barça and Madrid gave up commanding leads. Barça led Madrid by nine points and Atlético by 10 at the start of November, yet they were knocked off top spot before Christmas. Madrid moved four clear of Atlético and 10 ahead of Barça at the end of January; they then won one of their next five. Atlético, meanwhile, won eight in a row to reach the summit just before Christmas. Since getting there, they have won just three of their subsequent nine league games.
Lowe: There isn’t one single reason, I don’t think, but here are a few: the number of games, injuries, and new-ness. Which is to say: the fact that Atlético is a new-ish project with new players (and in truth, their elite players might not be quite up there with those of the other two … Rodrigo De Paul and Julián Alvarez, you ask? Maybe); that Barcelona were doing something new, too (and are young and have a new idea to bed in); and that Madrid had a balance to find.
Hunter: Focus, energy and good coaching. The focus part is underlined by the fact that, until very recently, all three of LaLiga’s leading clubs were competing for the Treble — Madrid, in fact, began the 2024-25 season with the opportunity to win an unbelievable seven trophies. When you consistently play three games in seven or eight days, it is an immensely difficult job to focus, rest, correct errors, refocus, repeat the process and keep winning.
Apart from the Clásico in Mid-May, Where and How Else Could the Title Be Won and Lost?
Lowe: The beauty of football of course is precisely the fact that you don’t know … So you look for the games where you think that the three sides might drop points, but maybe that’s the wrong thing to do. And here’s a thought: rather than looking at opponents, should we be looking at dates? And, in particular, dates in other competitions?
Hunter: The winning and losing of this league title will principally be determined by the side that makes the fewest errors on the pitch, in preparation, in mentality and in how to keep their best players fit. The obvious thing is arithmetic — who wins the most points from now on — but the cold winds which can cause a champion-elect to catch a chill can, and will, come from the Copa del Rey and the Champions League. And let’s not forget that every club will be anxious to avoid any injury concerns which may arise from the March international break.
We Could Have the Lowest Title-Winning Points Total Since Madrid Won in 2006-07 with 76 Points. What Does That Say About the League?
Hunter: The main explanation is the extraordinary match load that Spain’s top teams, particularly Madrid, have to bear. There are more Champions League matches, the Spanish Supercopa is played abroad in midseason, Spain’s three biggest clubs are all still involved in the Copa del Rey at the semifinal stage and Los Blancos had the Intercontinental Cup to jam into their calendar. And this is all after a long summer for many of the top players. Clubs who would aspire to register a 100-point season have footballers who are at their absolute outside limit of creativity and athleticism. The quality we see, in context, is miraculous, but the points totals suffer.
Marsden: I also think there is more belief among the other teams that they can beat the top sides. During that era when Barça and Madrid were touching 100 points, it often felt like the opposition would write off visits to Camp Nou or the Bernabéu. All the points Graham rightly makes have perhaps contributed to that changing. The Lionel Messi–Cristiano Ronaldo factor has also been removed, which has had a double effect: it reduces the fear factor for opponents (although, moving forward, there is an emerging crop of world-class talent at all three clubs to fear) and makes dropped points feel less critical at the top of the table. That said, from now, every draw or defeat will feel crucial.
And, Finally, Who Will Win LaLiga and Why?
Kirkland: Barcelona. They’re consistently playing the best football, scoring the most goals, and they showed against Atlético that they’re capable of winning even when they’re not at their best. And I’d tip them to beat Madrid in what might be a decisive Clásico at Montjuïc on May 11.
Marsden: Given how the campaign has gone, I expect all three teams to drop more points, but Barça have room for error now. They could even lose the Clásico 3-0 and still win the league if they win their game in hand and match Madrid’s results in the other fixtures. Plus, they’re the in-form team right now after eight straight wins in LaLiga. Don’t rule Madrid out, though. It will go to the wire.
Lowe: I always feel like Madrid will somehow find a way, but Barcelona’s lead does matter and they too are finding a way this year. I still think Europe and the Copa may help to decide the league. I want to hang on to Atlético, but I think it’s Barcelona as favourites and Madrid very, very close but now just behind.
Hunter: It’s a two-horse race now. Any new injuries might become a decisive factor.
Originally Written by: ESPN
