LaLiga Title Race: A Thrilling Three-Way Battle
As we emerge from the international break, the LaLiga title race is heating up with Atlético Madrid, Barcelona, and Real Madrid all vying for the top spot. The competition is fierce, and the stakes are high as each team harbors hopes of lifting the coveted trophy.
Since the start of the year, the top spot has been a revolving door, with each of the three teams having their moment as league leaders, only to be caught by the chasing pack. The latest twist in this thrilling saga occurred on March 16, when Atlético Madrid, leading 2-0 against Barcelona with just 20 minutes left, suffered a shocking 4-2 defeat. This result left Barcelona level with Real Madrid on 60 points, but ahead on head-to-head thanks to their stunning 4-0 victory at the Bernabéu in October. Atlético, meanwhile, sits on 56 points.
Barcelona has a chance to pull ahead when they play their rearranged match against Osasuna on Thursday (stream LIVE at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+ in the U.S.). A win would put them three points clear, but this season has shown that the road to the title is fraught with challenges.
To delve deeper into the title race, ESPN’s Real Madrid correspondent Alex Kirkland and Barcelona correspondent Sam Marsden are joined by LaLiga experts Sid Lowe and Graham Hunter. They discuss the main talking points, what lies ahead, and crucially, each predicts their winner.
Who Were Your Title Favourites at the Start of the Season, and Are They Still Now?
Alex Kirkland: I backed Real Madrid to win LaLiga this season. It wasn’t a controversial suggestion: Madrid were reigning champions, and they’d just signed Kylian Mbappé. Simple. But two things caught me by surprise: Madrid’s all-round performance as a team getting worse, or at least becoming less consistent, post-Mbappé; and Barcelona’s near-instantaneous improvement under Hansi Flick.
Sam Marsden: Madrid were the obvious pick, but with the glorious benefit of hindsight, did we underestimate two Germans — Flick and Toni Kroos? The former has far exceeded all expectations at Barça so far; the latter’s retirement has left a gaping hole in Madrid’s midfield.
Sid Lowe: Carlo Ancelotti tried to tell us. Kroos, he said, even towards the end of last season, was the truly irreplaceable player. And while we’re talking in truths, Mbappé was a footballer they didn’t need. Note: need. Which isn’t to say it wasn’t good to have him, of course it was. He may well be the best player in the world, his performances have been good — yes, even early on when everyone was saying he was a problem — and there is probably no front line quite like theirs anywhere (although Barcelona have forced us into rethinking that.)
Graham Hunter: My refrain in August was: Atleti “should,” Barça “could”… but Madrid “will.” The ebb and flow over the subsequent months has been tremendous fun: sometimes confusing, but hugely entertaining. I hope it has won some converts to LaLiga, which is still, by some considerable distance, the best-quality championship in the world.
Why Has the League Leader Changed So Many Times?
Marsden: What is hard to explain is how quickly Barça and Madrid gave up commanding leads. Barça led Madrid by nine points and Atlético by 10 at the start of November, yet they were knocked off top spot before Christmas. Madrid moved four clear of Atlético and 10 ahead of Barça at the end of January; they then won one of their next five. Atlético, meanwhile, won eight in a row to reach the summit just before Christmas. Since getting there, they have won just three of their subsequent nine league games.
Lowe: There isn’t one single reason, I don’t think, but here are a few: the number of games, injuries, and new-ness. Which is to say: the fact that Atlético is a new-ish project with new players (and in truth, their elite players might not be quite up there with those of the other two … Rodrigo De Paul and Julián Alvarez, you ask? Maybe); that Barcelona were doing something new, too (and are young and have a new idea to bed in); and that Madrid had a balance to find.
Hunter: Focus, energy and good coaching. The focus part is underlined by the fact that, until very recently, all three of LaLiga’s leading clubs were competing for the Treble — Madrid, in fact, began the 2024-25 season with the opportunity to win an unbelievable seven trophies. When you consistently play three games in seven or eight days, it is an immensely difficult job to focus, rest, correct errors, refocus, repeat the process and keep winning.
Kirkland: It really is striking how each of these three teams has suffered a near-catastrophic wobble at some point. Barcelona’s was the most eye-catching: one win in eight league games between November and January was historically bad, making their subsequent recovery even more impressive. Although it’s also worth saying that in a number of those games, they didn’t actually play that badly.
Apart from the Clásico in Mid-May, Where and How Else Could the Title Be Won and Lost?
Lowe: The beauty of football of course is precisely the fact that you don’t know … So you look for the games where you think that the three sides might drop points, but maybe that’s the wrong thing to do. And here’s a thought: rather than looking at opponents, should we be looking at dates? And, in particular, dates in other competitions?
Hunter: The winning and losing of this league title will principally be determined by the side that makes the fewest errors on the pitch, in preparation, in mentality and in how to keep their best players fit. The obvious thing is arithmetic — who wins the most points from now on — but the cold winds which can cause a champion-elect to catch a chill can, and will, come from the Copa del Rey and the Champions League.
Marsden: Like Sid says, there are fixtures and dates that can be singled out, but ultimately the dropped points this season have often come when least expected. Who had Barça losing at home to Las Palmas and Leganés? Madrid slipping up at Espanyol? Atleti’s long winning streak ending at Leganés?
Kirkland: I think Atlético’s next three games will determine if they’re still in the race or not. If they win at Espanyol this weekend, beat Barcelona to reach the Copa del Rey final and then get a result at Sevilla, their confidence will be high again. They’ve got some very winnable games after that.
We Could Have the Lowest Title-Winning Points Total Since Madrid Won in 2006-07 with 76 Points. What Does That Say About the League?
Hunter: The main explanation is the extraordinary match load that Spain’s top teams, particularly Madrid, have to bear. There are more Champions League matches, the Spanish Supercopa is played abroad in midseason, Spain’s three biggest clubs are all still involved in the Copa del Rey at the semifinal stage and Los Blancos had the Intercontinental Cup to jam into their calendar.
Marsden: I also think there is more belief among the other teams that they can beat the top sides. During that era when Barça and Madrid were touching 100 points, it often felt like the opposition would write off visits to Camp Nou or the Bernabéu.
Lowe: I think this ties into the above question about the lead changing so much. The top teams have stronger opponents to face and their own physical and mental fatigue to deal with.
Kirkland: It says that there are a lot of other good teams in LaLiga. Athletic Club, Villarreal and Real Betis are in fourth, fifth and sixth place for a reason.
And, Finally, Who Will Win LaLiga and Why?
Kirkland: Barcelona. They’re consistently playing the best football, scoring the most goals, and they showed against Atlético that they’re capable of winning even when they’re not at their best.
Marsden: Given how the campaign has gone, I expect all three teams to drop more points, but Barça have room for error now. They could even lose the Clásico 3-0 and still win the league if they win their game in hand and match Madrid’s results in the other fixtures.
Lowe: I always feel like Madrid will somehow find a way, but Barcelona’s potential lead does matter and they too are finding a way this year.
Hunter: It’s a two-horse race now. Any new injuries might become a decisive factor. It’s a Madrid 51%-49% Barça split.
LaLiga Title Odds per ESPN BET
- Barcelona: -160
- Real Madrid: +175
- Atlético Madrid: +850
Originally Written by: ESPN
