College Football Playoff Picture: 12-Team Format Taking Shape After Third CFP Rankings
With the release of the third College Football Playoff rankings for 2023, the playoff picture becomes more intense as teams jockey for position in the final weeks of the season. The four-team CFP format is something we’re all used to, but, beginning in 2024, there will be a seismic shift: the playoff will expand to a 12-team field! So, what’s that going to look like?
Sports enthusiasts can hardly wait, and after the third set of rankings, we’re starting to get a better idea. If the current rankings are anything to go by, the expanded 12-team playoff would create some matchups to drool over. Let’s break it down.
Current CFP Top 10 Breakdown
The most recent rankings have put the powerhouses of college football at the top. In the third release, the undefeated Georgia Bulldogs sit comfortably at the No. 1 spot. Their closest competition? The Ohio State Buckeyes, who remain undefeated at 10-0, land in the coveted No. 2 position.
Michigan, another undefeated squad at 10-0, comes in at No. 3, and Florida State caps off the top four, boasting their perfect 10-0 record. Though all four of these squads control their own destiny and stand firm in their current top-four CFP positions, there are several major upcoming challenges that could shuffle the deck.
How are the rest of the rankings shaping up? Oregon sits confidently at the No. 6 rank after last week’s release, keeping their playoff dreams alive. Alabama inches closer at No. 8, while Texas has a strong showing holding the No. 7 spot.
But, what about those teams in the looming 5-to-12 range? These are the colleges that, in the new format, would make the cut!
How Would The New 12-Team Format Look Right Now?
If the 12-team playoff format was already in effect in 2023, this is how the field would shape up from the current rankings:
Top Four Byes
As the highest-ranked conference champions in the CFP system, here’s who would get a precious first-round bye for being in the top four:
- Georgia (SEC) – No. 1
- Ohio State (Big Ten) – No. 2
- Michigan (Big Ten) – No. 3
- Florida State (ACC) – No. 4
These four teams would automatically be through to the quarterfinals, leaving them time to rest up and strategize for the next round.
Teams That Would Play First-Round Games – Ranked No. 5 to No. 12
- No. 5 Washington vs. No. 12 Tulane
- No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 11 Penn State
- No. 7 Texas vs. No. 10 Louisville
- No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 9 Missouri
Each of these head-to-head matchups would be wild in the 12-team system, giving us some of the best games we can currently dream of. Let’s dive into the possible outcomes of these clashes!
Predicted Matchups & Their Ramifications
No. 5 Washington vs No. 12 Tulane: The Washington Huskies (10-0) are still looking strong, but Tulane (9-1) could be an exciting underdog in this one. Washington would be the favorite on paper, but Tulane has proven they belong. The Huskies should be wary of any surprises!
No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 11 Penn State: The Ducks, led by quarterback Bo Nix, would enter this game as favorites. Penn State has shown flashes of brilliance, yet Oregon’s offensive firepower should give them the upper hand—but the Nittany Lions could make things interesting in this clash.
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 10 Louisville: Louisville (9-1) has been rock solid this season, but Texas (9-1) will definitely have the edge in talent and experience. However, don’t count out the Cardinals—this one could be closer than expected.
No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 9 Missouri: Alabama seems to be hitting its stride at the right time as they surge their way through the SEC. Missouri, on the other hand, is a bit of a surprise entrant and will have a mountain to climb to upset the Crimson Tide.
What Could Change Before The Final Rankings?
As we venture into the final weeks of the regular season and championship matchups loom on the horizon, there’s still room for chaos in the rankings. After all, major matchups like Ohio State vs. Michigan could easily shake up not just the Big Ten standings, but also the entire landscape of the CFP.
A key takeaway is that the teams currently on the brink, like Alabama or Texas, need to keep winning and hope the top-four teams slip up. The quest for a top-four spot, resulting in an automatic quarterfinal berth, will be fiercely contested. Meanwhile, with the 12-team expansion happening next year, those sitting just outside the top 12 will be watching closely. A late surge by programs like Ole Miss or Oklahoma could cause some last-minute drama.
What’s clear now is that Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, and Florida State control their destiny. But if any of these powerhouses fall, chaos isn’t just likely— it’s inevitable.
How Does This 12-Team Format Change the Dynamics in 2024?
The switch from four teams to 12 starting next year marks a major shift in how college football postseason will work. More schools will be involved in the playoff chase, meaning more fan bases engaged deep into the season. The biggest difference? Teams that aren’t perfect—think one-loss or even two-loss teams—could realistically still have a shot at making a run for the title.
This expanded format will reward conference champions more than ever and also create the opportunity for significant upsets. With additional first-round games on campus sites, expect the energy and atmosphere of these playoff games to skyrocket.
The Path Ahead: Can the Top Teams Hold Their Spots?
The top contenders—Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, and Florida State—all know what’s at stake: the chance to secure not just a spot in the top four this year, but starting next year, a shot at the coveted first-round bye in a 12-team playoff. Meanwhile, schools like Washington and Oregon are hungry to assert themselves and secure places in the playoff, too.
But will any stumble? It’s bound to come down to who can deliver under pressure in these final matchups. One thing’s for sure: The expanded playoff format will keep things interesting for schools, players, and, most importantly, football fans across the country.
Standout Observations from the Current CFP Rankings
Here are a few observations worth noting for the current playoff rankings:
- Both Ohio State and Michigan will meet on November 25, meaning one of these two powerhouses is destined to fall. This can completely disrupt the top four.
- Alabama and Georgia could end up meeting for the SEC Championship—resulting in another possible huge shakeup if the Tide pull off an upset.
- Florida State looks like they’ll finish the season undefeated, but the ACC is no stranger to chaos.
- Teams like Penn State and Ole Miss need to win out and might still need some help from the heavyweights stumbling.
When all is said and done, the current CFP format continues to keep the chase stressful and exhilarating, but the 12-team playoff that’s coming next season will make the fun even better!
Final Thoughts: What We Can Expect Next
The race for the 2023 College Football Playoff is heating up as teams battle it out for one of the coveted top-four spots. Everyone will be keeping their eyes peeled on the key matchups in the coming weeks. For the top schools, there’s no margin for error, while the sleepers and dark horses would love to play spoiler.
Keep an eye on those top-ranked teams that can coast into the 2023 playoff as well as the doctors of chaos that are going to turn this thing upside down. The College Football Playoff picture is starting to take shape, but the road to the National Championship is paved with unpredictable twists and turns.
And look out, folks: One year from now, it will no longer be just four; 12 teams will be vying for a chance at immortality. Buckle up for the wild ride ahead!
Originally Written by: Shehan Jeyarajah
