UFC 311: A Night of High Stakes and Unexpected Twists
As we step into 2025, the UFC had grand plans to kick off the year with a bang, aiming to captivate fans with a stellar pay-per-view event. The anticipation was palpable, with a card featuring two title fights and headlined by none other than the top-ranked fighter in mixed martial arts. But, as the saying goes, “the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry.”
Islam Makhachev, who holds the No. 1 spot in the ESPN pound-for-pound rankings, is set to defend his lightweight championship in the main event of UFC 311 this Saturday at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV. Originally, fans were eagerly awaiting a rematch between Makhachev and his division’s top contender, Arman Tsarukyan. However, a twist of fate saw Tsarukyan sidelined due to a back injury sustained on Thursday night, paving the way for Renato Moicano to step in as a late replacement.
This change in opponents marks a significant shift in the challenge Makhachev faces. With a 14-fight winning streak, Makhachev is the longest-reigning current champion in the UFC. Tsarukyan, who has been on a 9-1 run since his unanimous decision loss to Makhachev in his UFC debut in 2019, is ranked No. 2 in the ESPN lightweight rankings, just behind Makhachev. Moicano, on the other hand, is ranked much lower at No. 7.
Despite the change, Makhachev remains the favorite to retain his title, with his odds soaring to 13-to-1 according to ESPN BET by Friday afternoon. This scenario underscores why the UFC often stacks its pay-per-view events with multiple title fights. The co-main event, featuring men’s bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili against the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov, offers its own intriguing twist in the betting odds.
Dvalishvili, with an 18-4 record, is defending his belt as a +230 underdog, despite being on an impressive 11-fight winning streak. Such odds are rare, though not unheard of. In fact, only one previous UFC champion, strawweight Carla Esparza, has been a +250 or longer underdog in the 18 years that ESPN Research has been tracking odds, excluding title defenses against interim champs or rematches of upset dethronings.
Beyond the title fights, UFC 311 also features a clash of former champions as Jiří Procházka and Jamahal Hill vie for a spot among the light heavyweight contenders. Both fighters are eager to reclaim their positions at the top, but only one can succeed. The question remains: who will it be?
These three fights are the highlights of this weekend’s card. But how does the entire lineup measure up? Let’s delve into the details.
Good Things Happen in Threes
Men’s Bantamweight Championship: Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Umar Nurmagomedov has made a name for himself in the UFC, having never been taken down in his six fights. However, only two of his opponents have attempted to do so, with a combined 0 for 3 record. While his takedown defense remains largely untested outside of his training gym, Dvalishvili presents a formidable challenge. Known for his relentless takedowns, Dvalishvili has achieved double figures in four of his 13 UFC fights, including a bout against former champ Petr Yan, who succumbed to 11 takedowns on 49 attempts.
However, if a fighter is racking up double-figure takedowns, it means their opponents are frequently getting back to their feet. Nurmagomedov has likely been preparing for this scenario, training with elite Dagestani wrestlers to hone his ability to return to standing and utilize his precise striking.
Title Bout by the Numbers
- 1,950: Strikes landed in the UFC by Dvalishvili, the most in bantamweight history.
- 72: Takedowns for Dvalishvili in UFC bantamweight fights, the most ever in the division. His overall UFC total of 85 puts him five behind all-time leader Georges St-Pierre.
- 63.1: Significant striking accuracy percentage for Nurmagomedov, the best ever among UFC 135-pounders.
Light Heavyweight: Jiří Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill
Both Procházka and Hill are coming off losses to Alex Pereira, who knocked them out in their respective last fights. Despite this, both fighters are focused on another shot at the current champ. However, they must first face each other in what promises to be an exciting bout. Procházka is known for his aggressive style, with 26 knockouts and three submissions among his 30 wins. His approach could lure Hill into a brawl, making for an entertaining fight.
Lightweight Championship: Islam Makhachev (c) vs. Renato Moicano
The main event of UFC 311 is noteworthy primarily because it features the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport, Islam Makhachev. Despite the late change in opponent, Makhachev’s presence alone is a treat for fans. While he may not have the same aura as Alex Pereira, Makhachev’s performances are always impressive. Moicano, who has won four in a row, faces long odds but has the potential to create a historic upset.
Title Bout by the Numbers
- 13: Consecutive lightweight wins for Makhachev, the longest streak in division history. His overall win streak of 14 puts him third in UFC history, behind Anderson Silva and Kamaru Usman.
- 60.3: Significant strike accuracy percentage of Makhachev, the best ever among UFC lightweights.
- 0-16: Combined record of fighters 35 or older in UFC lightweight title bouts. Moicano’s age is a factor to consider.
Digging a Little Deeper for Gems
Middleweight: Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
Kevin Holland is known for his entertaining style, both in and out of the Octagon. Reinier de Ridder, competing in the UFC for the second time, will need to stay focused against Holland’s unique approach. De Ridder’s experience in One Championship, where he held titles in two weight classes, will be put to the test.
Men’s Bantamweight: Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos
Payton Talbott is a rising star with a 3-0 UFC record and 9-0 overall, including seven knockouts. His impressive performance on “Dana White’s Contender Series” earned him a spot on the roster. Raoni Barcelos, who has lost four of his last six fights, sees this as an opportunity to turn his fortunes around.
Heavyweight: Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac
Jailton Almeida is a force to be reckoned with, having spent 87.3% of his UFC fight time in control of his opponents. Serghei Spivac, who ranks fourth among current heavyweights in control time, will need to find a way to counter Almeida’s dominance.
Lightweight: Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira
Diego Ferreira has revitalized his career with two consecutive wins and performance bonuses. To continue his streak, he must avoid being trapped by Grant Dawson, who has the highest top position percentage in UFC lightweight history.
The Rest of the Names … and Numbers
- Light Heavyweight: Billy Elekana vs. Bogdan Guskov
0: Decision wins by Guskov, who has two submissions and 14 knockouts. He has 12 first-round finishes and has been to a third round only twice. - Middleweight: Zachary Reese vs. Azamat Bekoev
4: First-minute finishes by Reese in nine pro fights, including a 20-second knockout of Julian Marquez last June for his first UFC win. - Women’s Bantamweight: Karol Rosa vs. Ailin Perez
2.22: Striking differential in the UFC by Rosa, the best in division history. - Men’s Bantamweight: Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov
6: Pro fights it took Nakamura to earn a UFC roster spot. Since then, he is 3-0 inside the Octagon. - Men’s Bantamweight: Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj
29: Season of “The Ultimate Fighter” on which Turcios won the bantamweight tournament. - Men’s Flyweight: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter
47: Percentage of Ulanbekov’s fights that he has won by submission.
ESPN’s Andres Waters contributed to this article.
Originally Written by: Jeff Wagenheim
