Weekend College Basketball Rematches: What to Expect
As we dive into another thrilling weekend of college basketball, fans might notice the absence of a 1 vs. 2 matchup. However, don’t let that fool you into thinking this weekend lacks excitement. On the contrary, it’s packed with intriguing rematches that promise to shake up conference races and influence NCAA tournament seeding.
The expansion of power conferences this season has altered the landscape, meaning we won’t always see a round-robin schedule or two head-to-head matchups. In fact, we had to look back to March 2024 for one particular instance. But fear not, basketball enthusiasts, because the lineup this weekend is nothing short of spectacular.
First up, we have Kentucky vs. Alabama, a guaranteed offensive showdown. Then there’s Iowa State vs. Houston, a defensive battle that will keep you on the edge of your seat. Saint Mary’s vs. Gonzaga offers must-watch West Coast basketball, while St. John’s vs. UConn brings classic Big East action to Madison Square Garden.
Now, you might be wondering why Duke vs. Illinois (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, Fox) at MSG isn’t on the list. Well, the Blue Devils and Illini haven’t faced off since December 2020. Similarly, Tennessee at Texas A&M (Saturday, noon ET, ESPN) played twice last season, but both teams have five first-year transfers in their starting lineups. Meanwhile, Michigan-Michigan State (Friday, 8 p.m. ET, Fox) hasn’t played this season. With a new coach and roster, the Wolverines are set to battle the Spartans for first place in the Big Ten.
ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf are here to break down what to expect in four big rematches this weekend. All times are Eastern.
Iowa State Cyclones at Houston Cougars (Saturday, 2 p.m., ESPN)
Last meeting: Iowa State def. Houston 69-41 in last year’s Big 12 title game
What’s at stake: Houston’s recent road win at Arizona has given the Cougars a two-game lead over the Wildcats and Texas Tech in the Big 12 standings. This puts Kelvin Sampson on track to secure back-to-back regular-season championships since joining the league.
Iowa State, on the other hand, has bounced back after losing three consecutive games in late January and early February. While the Cyclones are likely out of the 1-seed and Big 12 title race, they’re still in contention for a 2-seed and have a chance to finish the regular season strong.
What’s changed since the first meeting? This is the only game without a head-to-head meeting this season. Yet, both teams have maintained remarkable continuity from last season, a rarity in an era where teams are constantly rebuilding. Houston has four starters back from the team that started the Big 12 title game, but the departure of All-American Jamal Shead is significant. He’s been replaced by Milos Uzan, an Oklahoma transfer who is playing his best basketball, averaging 13.9 points and 4.6 assists over his previous eight games.
Iowa State returned three starters from that game, as well as sixth man Curtis Jones, who returned to the bench with the return of Milan Momcilovic. TJ Otzelberger’s two new starters, Joshua Jefferson and Dishon Jackson, have transformed the Cyclones’ offense.
What to expect this weekend: Expect a defensive battle. Houston boasts the top defense in the Big 12 and one of the five best in the country, while Iowa State ranks third in the conference and in the top 10 nationally. The teams combined to score 100, 138, and 110 points in their three meetings last season, with Iowa State winning the first and last of those games.
Iowa State needs to take care of the ball to have a chance to win again. The Cyclones turned it over on at least 22% of their possessions in four of their six games entering Monday and rank 11th in the Big 12 in turnover percentage. Houston is the best in the league at forcing turnovers.
Meanwhile, will the Cougars continue to make shots from the perimeter? They rank ninth nationally in 3-point percentage and are the best shooting team Sampson has had since 2017, while 3-point defense has been a vulnerability for Iowa State. Four of the Cyclones’ previous eight opponents have made double-digit 3s. — Borzello
Kentucky Wildcats at Alabama Crimson Tide (Saturday, 6 p.m., ESPN)
Last meeting: Alabama def. Kentucky 102-97 on Jan. 18
What’s at stake: For Alabama, this is another key matchup in a string of eight consecutive games against top-25 teams to end the regular season. However, the Crimson Tide has already lost the first two games of that stretch (Auburn, Missouri), so Kentucky represents an opportunity to stay in the hunt for the SEC title and, more importantly, maintain its case for a top seed in the NCAA tournament.
A short-handed Kentucky team has already proved itself with wins over multiple top-25 squads, though it has lost three of its past six games. Beating Alabama will boost the Wildcats’ odds of locking up a favorable tournament seed and potentially help avoid another tough first-round matchup.
What’s changed since the first meeting? Kentucky could be without its starting backcourt this time. In the first matchup, Jaxson Robinson and Lamont Butler combined to score 28 points, but both could miss Saturday’s rematch due to injuries. That’s been Mark Pope’s greatest obstacle this season.
Alabama has been one of the nation’s best offensive teams. Coach Nate Oats moved Chris Youngblood (38% from beyond the arc in SEC play) into the starting lineup after defeating the Wildcats. The Tide has connected on 39% of their 3-point attempts in the seven games Youngblood has started, but Alabama’s back-to-back losses are the result of a problematic defense (10th in the league) that has haunted the Tide for weeks.
The personnel changes from the first game could be the difference in the outcome Saturday.
What to expect this weekend: Both teams combined to manufacture one of the most breathtaking offensive displays of the season when they first met: Kentucky registered 124 points per 100 possessions and connected on 52% of its shots inside the arc and 40% of its 3-point attempts. And that wasn’t enough to outscore an Alabama squad that registered 131 points per 100 possessions, made 51% of its shots inside the arc, and 38% of its 3-point attempts.
This time, the Wildcats will need to make Mark Sears uncomfortable, a daunting task for a team that might not have its best guards on the floor. But Sears is shooting just 35% in his team’s five losses.
Alabama can largely play the same style and win, especially since this game is at home. The last meeting was a 78-possession affair, a comfortable pace for Alabama against a now-shorthanded Kentucky squad. A few more stops will be beneficial, but Nate Oats has the comfort of knowing he defeated Kentucky at full strength in the first outing. — Medcalf
Saint Mary’s Gaels at Gonzaga Bulldogs (Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPN)
Last meeting: Saint Mary’s def. Gonzaga 62-58 on Feb. 1
What’s at stake: Twice. That’s all. Since 2000, Gonzaga has only failed to win all or part of the West Coast Conference regular-season title twice: 2012, 2024. It’s the most dominant run in men’s college basketball. But Saint Mary’s edge in this season’s conference race is significant historically, and because another Gonzaga loss could expose the Bulldogs’ lukewarm résumé.
After a lopsided win over Baylor in its season opener, Gonzaga has secured just one top-50 KenPom win this season (San Diego State). Saint Mary’s has two (Gonzaga, Nebraska). The winner of this rematch will boost its résumé and potentially elevate its potential seed on Selection Sunday. The loser — especially if it’s Gonzaga — could find itself on the wrong end of a tough matchup in the opening round.
What’s changed since the first meeting? Augustas Marciulionis had to weather a weird midseason funk, punctuated by a 3-for-9 outing against the Zags. Since that game, however, Marciulionis has found his rhythm again and averaged 19.5 points in the four games entering this week’s slate.
That’s bad news for Gonzaga. But Graham Ike, who scored 24 points in the first meeting, leads a team that’s made strides since that loss, ranking 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency in that span. The improved defensive effort could be crucial in the rematch.
What to expect this weekend: Gonzaga has played at a top-50 tempo this season but was forced into its slowest game (61 possessions) by Saint Mary’s — which impacted the outcome. Mark Few’s program has to put itself in a position to push the pace this time. Plus, the energy of a home crowd should shift the vibe in this meeting.
Saint Mary’s was successful on the offensive glass (37% rebounding rate) and second-chance opportunities. That, along with keeping to their more methodical pace, could help the Gaels secure their third consecutive win against Gonzaga in the final WCC matchup before Gonzaga leaves for the Pac-12. — Medcalf
UConn Huskies at St. John’s Red Storm (Sunday, Noon, Fox)
Last meeting: St. John’s def. UConn 68-62 on Feb. 7
What’s at stake: St. John’s is aiming for its first Big East regular-season championship since 1992, holding a 2.5-game lead in the league standings.
UConn’s hopes for a share of the Big East regular-season title were dashed after it suffered a shocking loss at Seton Hall on Saturday. The Huskies need to find consistency. They haven’t won two games in a row since the start of January, and their NCAA tournament seed is slipping.
What’s changed since the first meeting? Not a ton has changed. The biggest development is that Liam McNeeley has gotten more healthy. The teams’ first meeting was McNeeley’s first game back after missing eight games with an ankle injury, and while he finished with 18 points and 11 rebounds off the bench, he struggled to hit shots from the perimeter. He followed that performance with 38 points and five 3s against Creighton, so chances are McNeeley’s shooting woes won’t repeat themselves.
On the St. John’s side, it’s worth noting it allowed Villanova and Creighton to each surpass one point per possession — the first time since November that back-to-back opponents reached that mark.
What to expect this weekend: This is a matchup of the Big East’s best offense and best defense in conference play. UConn needs its big three to play well. Alex Karaban went for 20 against Seton Hall and is showing signs of breaking out of his slump. Solo Ball was incredible while McNeeley was out, and he has to continue shooting it with confidence.
At the other end, can St. John’s dictate on the offensive glass? The Red Storm surprisingly didn’t have a ton of success on second-chance opportunities in the first meeting given they’re the best offensive rebounding team in the league and UConn has struggled on the glass at times. Their lack of shooting from the perimeter makes it imperative that they get easy baskets around the rim. If it’s a close game, Rick Pitino will like his chances, thanks to the recent forms of Kadary Richmond and RJ Luis Jr. — Borzello
Originally Written by: Jeff Borzello,Myron Medcalf
