Michigan vs. Ohio State: A Rivalry Renewed with Defensive Fireworks
It’s that time of year again, folks. The leaves have fallen, the air is crisp, and one of college football’s most storied rivalries is set to take center stage. On Saturday, the Michigan Wolverines (6-5, 4-4 Big Ten) will march into The Horseshoe to face the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1, 7-1). While the stakes may not be as high as in years past, the intensity of this matchup remains as fierce as ever.
For the Buckeyes, this game is personal. After losing three straight to their bitter rivals, Ohio State is hungry for revenge. Each of those losses has kept them out of the Big Ten championship game, a bitter pill to swallow for a program that had previously dominated the series with eight consecutive wins. On the other side, Michigan, the defending national champions, comes into this game unranked for the first time since 2017. The Wolverines just became bowl eligible last week, but don’t let their record fool you—this team is still dangerous.
Ohio State, the national championship favorite at +260, hasn’t beaten Michigan at The Horseshoe since 2018. Saturday’s showdown will mark the 120th meeting between these two powerhouses, with kickoff set for Noon ET on Fox. Buckle up, because this one promises to be a slugfest.
The Betting Lines
Let’s talk numbers. Here’s how the odds stack up for Saturday’s clash:
- Spread: Ohio State -21
- Moneyline: Ohio State -2500, Michigan +1100
- Over/Under: 42.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
- First-half spread: Ohio State -11.5 (-110), Michigan +11.5 (-110)
- First-half moneyline: Ohio State -1400, Michigan +700
- First-half total points: 23.5 (Over -Even/Under -120)
According to ESPN’s analytics, Ohio State has a 91.9% chance to win. That’s a daunting number for Michigan fans, but as we all know, anything can happen in a rivalry game.
Defensive Showdown: Why the UNDER is the Play
When it comes to this year’s matchup, all signs point to a defensive battle. Both teams boast elite defenses that excel at controlling the line of scrimmage and disrupting offensive rhythm. Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has been a mastermind this season, dialing up creative blitz packages and simulated pressures that have left opposing offenses in shambles. In their game against Indiana, the Buckeyes’ innovative 3-2-6 defensive scheme produced five sacks and a forced fumble, holding the Hoosiers to just 153 total yards.
Michigan’s defense has been equally dominant. The Wolverines’ front seven is relentless, earning the highest-graded pass rush in the country according to PFF. Against Indiana, Michigan pressured quarterback Kurtis Rourke on a staggering 62% of his dropbacks, resulting in four sacks, eight tackles for loss, and an interception. Players like Jaishawn Barham and TJ Guy have been wreaking havoc in the backfield, combining for three sacks and 4.5 tackles for loss in their last outing.
On the Ohio State side, linebacker Cody Simon has been a standout performer. In his last game, Simon recorded 2.5 sacks, 10 tackles, and a forced fumble, showcasing his ability to be a game-changer. With both defenses excelling at neutralizing big plays and limiting scoring opportunities, this game feels destined to stay under the total of 42.5 points.
Betting Trends to Watch
Here are some key trends to keep in mind as you prepare for Saturday’s showdown:
- The current spread of 20.5 ties the second-largest spread in this rivalry since 1978 (largest since 2014).
- Michigan would be the third national champion to be a 20-point underdog at any point the following season since 1978 (2011 Auburn, 2020 LSU).
- The over has hit in 10 straight meetings between these teams.
- Michigan is 12-5 ATS on the road since 2021 (seventh-best in FBS over that span).
- Michigan has covered in each of its past three meetings against Ohio State. The last team to cover in four straight in this series was Ohio State from 1986-89.
- Ohio State is 13-0 SU at home over the last two seasons. The Buckeyes are 9-4 ATS over that span (T-7th in FBS).
Final Thoughts
Saturday’s game is shaping up to be a classic Big Ten battle—gritty, hard-fought, and low-scoring. With both teams wielding elite defenses, expect sacks, turnovers, and limited scoring opportunities. Whether you’re a die-hard fan or a casual observer, this is a game you won’t want to miss. Rivalry Week is here, and Michigan vs. Ohio State is ready to deliver another chapter in college football history.
Originally Written by: Maldonado
