Men’s Final Four: A Clash of Titans with All No. 1 Seeds
For the first time since 2008, the men’s Final Four is set with all No. 1 seeds, promising an electrifying showdown in San Antonio. The Florida Gators and Auburn Tigers will kick off the semifinal action at 6:09 p.m. ET on Saturday, followed by the Houston Cougars and Duke Blue Devils at 8:49 p.m. ET, both games airing on CBS.
With the stage set on the San Antonio River Walk, the question on everyone’s mind is: Who will advance to the national championship on April 7? Our college basketball experts have weighed in, breaking down how each team reached the NCAA tournament national semifinals, their keys to advancing to the title game, and their predictions for the winners. Spoiler alert: there’s consensus on one matchup, but not the other.
Final Four Preview
Florida vs. Auburn
What to Know About Florida
The No. 1 factor that helped Florida reach the Final Four: The Gators have been masters of turning games in their favor with devastating runs. Down nine points with 3:14 to play against Texas Tech, they ended the game on an 18-4 run, a pattern seen multiple times this season. In the tournament, they outscored Maryland 47-33 in the second half of their Sweet 16 win and had 53 points in less than 17 minutes against Norfolk State in the opening round.
Florida is akin to a home run hitter in the bottom of the ninth inning. It’s never over with the Gators because of their ability to seize control of games, even when they seem out of reach.
Florida’s key against Auburn: Walter Clayton Jr.’s brilliance. The Final Four is all about stars, and Clayton Jr. might be the biggest star next to Cooper Flagg. His sheer will and talent could be the deciding factors in whether the Gators win the title. — Myron Medcalf
What to Know About Auburn
The No. 1 factor that helped Auburn reach the Final Four: Tightening up defensively. When Auburn struggled down the stretch, losing three of four games, they fell apart defensively. However, since the NCAA tournament began, they have looked more like the team that started the season 27-2. Bruce Pearl’s team has done a much better job limiting easy opportunities, allowing only Creighton to reach one point per possession.
Auburn’s key against Florida: Johni Broome. Broome took an awkward fall during the Elite Eight win over Michigan State but returned to give Auburn a boost. He will need to be at 100 percent to compete with Florida’s deep and talented frontcourt. — Jeff Borzello
Florida vs. Auburn Prediction
- Jeff Borzello: Florida wins, 82-79
- Joe Lunardi: Florida wins, 85-80
- Myron Medcalf: Florida wins, 88-84
Florida led the first meeting between these teams by as many as 21 points before winning 90-81 on the road. The Gators made 13 3s against the Tigers’ SEC-best 3-point defense, and Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr. cemented his case as the best guard in the country. Can Denver Jones limit Clayton’s clean looks? The Gators have the size and depth inside to make life difficult for Johni Broome and can win in more ways than the Tigers can. — Jeff Borzello
Houston vs. Duke
What to Know About Houston
The No. 1 factor that helped Houston reach the Final Four: 3-point shooting. The Cougars lead the country in 3-point shooting, making nearly 40% of their shots from behind the arc, with three starters shooting 42% or better. They have averaged nine made 3s per game in the NCAA tournament.
Houston’s key against Duke: Defense > offense. Saturday’s showdown against Duke will feature the most efficient offense in the KenPom era against the nation’s best defense. Can the Cougars slow down the Blue Devils? Houston will need to muck up the game and rely on its experience and physicality. — Jeff Borzello
What to Know About Duke
The No. 1 factor that helped Duke reach the Final Four: Duke is simply more talented than any other team. Cooper Flagg and fellow NBA prospects Khaman Maluach and Kon Knueppel deserve most of the credit, but the fleet of talent down the roster has enhanced everything that coach Jon Scheyer has done with it.
Duke’s key against Houston: The Blue Devils’ ability to protect the rim and defend the paint. This Duke team has one of the top defensive units in recent program history. Against an Alabama squad that made 25 3-pointers in the Sweet 16, the Blue Devils forced the Crimson Tide into awkward, off-balance shots. — Myron Medcalf
Houston vs. Duke Predictions
- Jeff Borzello: Duke wins, 70-68
- Myron Medcalf: Duke wins, 74-70
- Joe Lunardi: Houston wins, 75-70
This is going to be an incredible contrast of elite offense versus elite defense, featuring one of the youngest teams in the country versus one of the oldest teams. The problem for the Cougars is that the Blue Devils also have an elite defense to go with their historically good offense. Duke can switch everything and is able to run good shooters off the 3-point line with Khaman Maluach in the paint to protect the rim. Houston will try to disrupt Duke, but the Blue Devils’ offense has been unfazed by pretty much anything all season. That will continue in San Antonio. — Jeff Borzello
Duke freshmen Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel, Khaman Maluach and Patrick Ngongba II make up as good a frontcourt as any college coach could want. They are also 18, 19, 18 and 19 years old, respectively. Houston will counter with J’Wan Roberts (age 23, 170 career games), Ja’Vier Francis (22, 128 games), Terrance Arceneaux (22, 83 games) and Joseph Tugler (20, 66 games). It is a massive difference in experience and basketball maturity.
Generally, I would still pick talent over experience, but it’s not like the Houston guys are unaccomplished. The Cougars have won 159 games in the J’Wan Roberts-Kelvin Sampson era. This is their second Final Four together. The Cougars, at 17 victories in a row, can also claim the nation’s longest current winning streak. They have lost just once since November and have lost only once in regulation all season.
This is a fabulous matchup in every way, but I’m taking the experienced veterans over the most talented freshmen in the tournament. — Joe Lunardi
Originally Written by: Myron Medcalf,Jeff Borzello
