Latest bowl projections: Who benefits most from a wild weekend?

College Football Chaos: Seven Ranked Teams Fall, CFP Picture Shaken

What a weekend, folks! If you thought college football couldn’t get any crazier, Week 13 just proved you wrong. Seven ranked teams went down in flames, including two previously unbeaten squads, leaving the College Football Playoff (CFP) race and bowl season in complete disarray. The SEC race? Scrambled. The Big 12? A total mess. And the CFP implications? Let’s just say the selection committee has its work cut out for it after one of the wildest weekends in recent memory.

Here’s the damage report: No. 5 Indiana, No. 7 Alabama, No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 14 BYU, No. 15 Texas A&M, No. 16 Colorado, and No. 19 Army all suffered losses. So, who’s left standing in the CFP race, and what does this mean for the rest of the bowl picture? Let’s break it all down.

The New 12-Team CFP Format

First, a quick refresher on the new, expanded 12-team playoff. The five highest-ranked conference champions automatically qualify, along with the next seven highest-ranked teams. The top four conference champions earn first-round byes, while the remaining eight teams face off in first-round games at the campus sites of the Nos. 5-8 seeds.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals are played in what were previously the New Year’s Six bowls, culminating in the national championship game on Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. But that’s just the CFP. Don’t forget the 36-game bowl slate, starting with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 14 and wrapping up with the Bahamas Bowl on Jan. 4. It’s a lot to digest, but that’s what makes this time of year so thrilling.

First-Round CFP Matchups

Here’s how ESPN’s bowl experts Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach see the first-round games shaping up:

• Bonagura: No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Ohio State
• Schlabach: No. 12 SMU at No. 5 Ohio State
• Bonagura: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Notre Dame
• Schlabach: No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Notre Dame
• Bonagura: No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Penn State
• Schlabach: No. 10 Arizona State at No. 7 Penn State
• Bonagura: No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia
• Schlabach: No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Texas

Specific game times and networks are still to be determined, but the action kicks off Dec. 20-21 on ABC/ESPN or TNT Sports.

Winners and Losers from the Chaos

Bonagura: “Well, that looks a lot different, doesn’t it? After such a chaotic weekend of college football, the most agreeable take here is that trying to make sense of all of this in a straightforward, logical way is a fool’s errand. Comparing teams within the same conference isn’t what it used to be given the inconsistency in what teams play each other, which leaves us … here. The obvious big winner this week is Arizona State. The Sun Devils have emerged as the favorite in the Big 12 and a serious playoff contender at the perfect time. Indiana backed into a more comfortable position thanks to all the losses in the SEC, and Tennessee is a win against Vanderbilt away from sealing a playoff spot.”

Schlabach: “One of the craziest Saturdays in recent memory has completely altered my 12-team CFP bracket as well. After Alabama, Ole Miss, Colorado, Texas A&M, and Indiana fell Saturday, I’m projecting Oregon to win the Big Ten, Miami to take the ACC, Georgia to claim the SEC, and Arizona State to survive the Big 12. Boise State is my No. 4 seed as the projected Mountain West champion, although struggling Wyoming put up a good fight in the Broncos’ 17-13 win Saturday. I think there’s a chance the Sun Devils would end up being the No. 4 seed if they win the Big 12 and beat BYU or Iowa State in the Big 12 title game based on schedule strength. I also considered Ole Miss, Alabama, Clemson, and South Carolina for the last two at-large bids, but went with SMU and Indiana.”

Quarterfinals and Beyond

Looking ahead to the quarterfinals, Bonagura and Schlabach agree on some matchups but differ on others. Here’s a quick snapshot:

• Bonagura: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Boise State
• Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Boise State
• Bonagura: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Miami
• Schlabach: No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 2 Miami
• Bonagura: No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 1 Oregon
• Schlabach: No. 8 Texas vs. No. 1 Oregon

Both analysts have Oregon and Ohio State advancing to the semifinals, but their national championship predictions differ. Bonagura has Texas facing Oregon, while Schlabach predicts a Georgia-Oregon showdown.

What’s Next?

With Selection Day looming on Dec. 8, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Every game from here on out will have massive implications, not just for the CFP but for the entire bowl season. So buckle up, college football fans. If this weekend was any indication, we’re in for a wild ride.