Home Teams Heavily Favored in First Round of Historic 12-Team College Football Playoff

Home Teams Heavily Favored in First Round of Historic 12-Team College Football Playoff

The College Football Playoff (CFP) is officially entering a new era, and the betting lines are already setting the stage for some high-stakes drama. For the first time ever, the CFP will feature a 12-team format, and the opening round has all four higher-seeded home teams entering as touchdown-or-greater favorites, according to ESPN BET odds. If you’re a fan of underdog stories, you might want to buckle up because the odds are stacked against the lower seeds in this historic debut.

Let’s start with the biggest favorite of the round: Texas. The Longhorns opened as 10.5-point favorites against Clemson, who barely squeezed into the playoff field thanks to a nail-biting ACC Championship win over SMU. That victory came on a last-second field goal, and while it was enough to punch Clemson’s ticket, the oddsmakers aren’t exactly giving them much of a chance against Texas. Meanwhile, SMU, who also made the playoff, opened as 8.5-point underdogs for their road matchup against Penn State. However, the line quickly shifted to +7.5, signaling at least some confidence in the Mustangs to keep it close.

Breaking Down the Odds

Here’s a quick look at the betting odds for the top teams in the CFP field:

• Georgia: +350
• Oregon: +350
• Texas: +350
• Ohio State: +475
• Penn State: +650
• Notre Dame: +1200
• Tennessee: +2500
• Indiana: +4000
• Arizona State: +5000
• Clemson: +5000
• SMU: +5000
• Boise State: +6000

One of the biggest surprises in this year’s playoff field was the inclusion of SMU over Alabama. The Crimson Tide, a perennial playoff contender, seemed like a lock to make the field after a significant odds shift earlier in the week. But Clemson’s ACC title win ultimately bumped Alabama out of contention, and SMU became a near certainty to make the playoff as Sunday morning progressed. By 11 a.m. ET, SMU’s odds to make the field were sitting at -1200.

Other Key Matchups

Notre Dame opened as 8.5-point favorites for their in-state showdown against Indiana, a game that’s sure to draw plenty of attention from fans in the Hoosier State. Meanwhile, the 8 vs. 9 seed matchup between Tennessee and Ohio State is shaping up to be the tightest betting contest of the first round. The Buckeyes opened as 7-point favorites over the Volunteers, but don’t be surprised if this one turns into a nail-biter.

At the top of the bracket, Oregon locked in the No. 1 seed after winning the Big Ten Championship and earned a first-round bye. When the bracket was first revealed, the Ducks were the standalone favorites to win the national championship at +325. However, their odds have since lengthened to +350, putting them in a three-way tie with Georgia and Texas as co-favorites. It’s worth noting that Penn State’s odds have shortened from +900 to +650, signaling growing confidence in the Nittany Lions as potential title contenders.

Underdogs and Long Shots

While the top seeds are getting most of the attention, the lower seeds are hoping to make some noise in this expanded playoff format. Clemson’s championship odds took a hit after the bracket reveal, lengthening from +3000 to +5000. SMU and Arizona State are also sitting at +5000, while Boise State, despite earning a first-round bye, has the longest odds in the field at +6000.

For fans of college football, this new 12-team format is a game-changer. It’s not just about the top four teams anymore; it’s about giving more programs a shot at glory. And while the odds may favor the higher seeds, the unpredictability of college football means anything can happen. Will the favorites hold serve, or will we see some Cinderella stories emerge? One thing’s for sure: the road to the national championship just got a whole lot more exciting.