Giant Killers: Predicting 10 Women’s March Madness Early-Round Upsets

Giant Killers: Predicting 10 Women’s March Madness Early-Round Upsets

March Madness is upon us, and with it comes the thrill of potential upsets in the women’s NCAA tournament. While upsets can be a rare occurrence, they are the moments that make the tournament so exciting. Last year, we saw only one lower seed triumph in the first round when No. 11 seed Middle Tennessee took down No. 6 Louisville. In 2023, there were four such upsets, and in 2022, there were five. The second round has also seen its share of surprises, with one upset last year and two the year before.

So, where might we see those thrilling upsets this year? Enter Giant Killers, a mix of analytics and the eye test, forecasting potential upsets in the first two rounds of the women’s bracket. For our purposes, an upset is defined as any seed separated by three lines. A No. 10 over a No. 7 counts just like a No. 6 beating a No. 3 in the second round.

Here are 10 games we project to end in an upset over the tournament’s first four days, listed in order of most likely to occur, with ESPN BPI projections noted where the data is available.

Note: Because the first First Four isn’t played until Wednesday and Thursday, the Giant Killers model takes all possible matchups into consideration.

• (10) South Dakota State vs. (7) Oklahoma State

  Upset chance: 32.6%
  First round: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN2 (Storrs, Connecticut; Spokane 4)

  Two years ago, the Jackrabbits made waves by beating USC in an 8-9 game. In 2019, they reached the Sweet 16 as a No. 6 seed, upsetting third-seeded Syracuse in the second round. Coach Aaron Johnston has a knack for success in March. After facing the nation’s 13th-most-difficult nonconference schedule, South Dakota State is ready for the challenge. While analytics favor the Cowgirls, if South Dakota State’s Brooklyn Meyer (17.6 PPG) outshines Oklahoma State’s Stailee Heard (16.7 PPG), an upset is on the horizon.

• (10) Harvard vs. (7) Michigan State

  Upset chance: 24.2%
  First round: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPNews (Raleigh, North Carolina; Spokane 1)

  While BPI heavily favors the Spartans, Harmoni Turner is on fire, averaging 31.3 points over the Crimson’s past four games. Harvard’s defense, allowing just 52.5 points per game, ranks fourth best in the nation. A combination of a hot player and a strong defense could spell trouble for the Spartans, especially since they lack the size to intimidate Harvard.

• (12) Fairfield vs. (5) Kansas State

  Upset chance: 6.5%
  First round: 2:30 p.m. ET Friday, ESPNews (Lexington, Kentucky; Spokane 4)

  This game has the most lopsided BPI projection on our list. However, Kansas State has been inconsistent, going 7-6 since Ayoka Lee was sidelined due to a foot injury. Lee is expected to return for the tournament, but Fairfield’s ability to make 8.9 3-pointers per game could be the key to an upset if they can outshoot Kansas State.

• (11) Murray State vs. (6) Iowa

  Upset chance: 14.7%
  First round: noon ET Saturday, ESPN (Norman, Oklahoma; Spokane 4)

  The Racers live up to their name, playing at a fast pace and leading the nation with 87.8 points per game. Katelyn Young, a 3,000-point career scorer, could be the standout player in this matchup. If Young can outperform Iowa’s Hannah Stuelke and Lucy Olsen, Murray State might just pull off the upset.

• (7) Vanderbilt vs. (2) Duke

  Second round: TBD Sunday (Durham, North Carolina; Birmingham 1)

  Both teams are expected to win their first-round games, setting up a clash between Vanderbilt’s high-scoring duo, Mikayla Blakes and Khamil Pierre, and Duke’s top-five defense. Duke’s impressive performance in the ACC tournament championship game is a distant memory, and Blakes, who has scored 50 points twice this season, could be the key to an upset.

• (11) Iowa State vs. (6) Michigan

  First round: 11:30 a.m. ET Friday, ESPN2 (Notre Dame, Indiana; Birmingham 3)

  Both teams are known for their offensive efficiency, but they achieve it in different ways. Audi Crooks is the difference-maker for Iowa State, and Michigan might struggle to contain her. The Cyclones need to get past Princeton in the First Four, but with a 70.2% chance to do so, they could be poised for an upset.

• (7) Louisville vs. (2) TCU

  Second round: TBD Sunday (Fort Worth, Texas; Birmingham 3)

  Louisville has a strong NCAA tournament history under Jeff Walz, with six consecutive Sweet 16 appearances. This year, they are a young team with nothing to lose. TCU, on the other hand, is a veteran team with high expectations. The pressure could be a hindrance, especially in close games. Louisville’s familiarity with Hailey Van Lith could give them an edge.

• (12) Green Bay vs. (5) Alabama

  Upset chance: 7.5%
  First round: 1:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN2 (College Park, Maryland; Birmingham 3)

  Green Bay’s deliberate style of play could frustrate Alabama, who prefers a faster pace. If Green Bay can control the tempo and keep the score low, they might catch Alabama off guard. The Phoenix’s ability to hit 36% of their 3-pointers could be the key to an upset.

• (11) George Mason vs. (6) Florida State

  Upset chance: 18%
  First Round: 7:45 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN2 (Baton Rouge, Louisiana; Spokane 1)

  Despite BPI giving the Seminoles an 82.0% chance to win, George Mason’s recent form suggests they could pull off an upset. The Patriots have won their past four games by an average of 19.0 points, and their remarkable turnaround under Vanessa Blair-Lewis has been impressive. Slowing down Ta’Niya Latson will be crucial for George Mason’s chances.

• (11) Washington vs. (6) West Virginia

  First round: 2 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPNews (Chapel Hill, North Carolina; Birmingham 2)

  Washington must first get past Columbia in a First Four matchup, where they have a 58.1% chance to win. If they do, their strong shooting could be the key to overcoming West Virginia’s defense. Washington ranks in the top 10 in field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage, and if they can break West Virginia’s press, they could find success from beyond the arc.