Giant Killers: Predicting 10 Women’s March Madness Early-Round Upsets

Giant Killers: Predicting 10 Women’s March Madness Early-Round Upsets

March Madness is upon us, and while the men’s tournament often steals the spotlight with its unpredictable nature, the women’s NCAA tournament has its own share of surprises. Upsets might be less frequent in the women’s bracket, but when they happen, they are nothing short of thrilling. Last year, we witnessed only one lower seed triumph in the first round when No. 11 seed Middle Tennessee toppled No. 6 Louisville. In 2023, there were four such upsets, and the year before that, five. The second round has also seen its share of surprises, with one upset last year and two the year before.

So, where might we see those upsets this year? Enter Giant Killers, a blend of analytics and the good old eye test, forecasting potential upsets in the first two rounds of the women’s bracket. For our purposes, an upset is defined as any seed separated by three lines. A No. 10 over a No. 7 is just as significant as a No. 6 beating a No. 3 in the second round.

Here are 10 games we project to end in an upset over the tournament’s first four days, listed in order of most likely to occur, with ESPN BPI projections noted where the data is available.

Note: Because the first First Four isn’t played until Wednesday and Thursday, the Giant Killers model takes all possible matchups into consideration.

• (10) South Dakota State vs. (7) Oklahoma State

  Upset chance: 32.6%
  First round: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN2 (Storrs, Connecticut; Spokane 4)

  Two years ago, the Jackrabbits made headlines by defeating USC in an 8-9 game. In 2019, they reached the Sweet 16 as a No. 6 seed, upsetting third-seeded Syracuse in the second round. Coach Aaron Johnston has a knack for March success. After facing the nation’s 13th-most-difficult nonconference schedule, South Dakota State is battle-tested. While analytics favor the Cowgirls, if South Dakota State’s Brooklyn Meyer (17.6 PPG) outshines Oklahoma State’s Stailee Heard (16.7 PPG), an upset is on the horizon.

• (10) Harvard vs. (7) Michigan State

  Upset chance: 24.2%
  First round: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPNews (Raleigh, North Carolina; Spokane 1)

  While BPI heavily favors the Spartans, Harmoni Turner is on fire, averaging 31.3 points over the Crimson’s past four games. Harvard’s defense, allowing just 52.5 points per game, ranks fourth in the nation. A combination of a hot player and a strong defense could spell trouble for the Spartans, especially since they lack the size to disrupt Harvard’s rhythm.

• (12) Fairfield vs. (5) Kansas State

  Upset chance: 6.5%
  First round: 2:30 p.m. ET Friday, ESPNews (Lexington, Kentucky; Spokane 4)

  This matchup has the most lopsided BPI projection on our list. However, Kansas State’s recent 7-6 record since Ayoka Lee was sidelined due to a foot injury could be a factor. Lee is expected to return for the tournament, but Fairfield’s ability to make 8.9 3-pointers per game could be the key to an upset if they can outshoot Kansas State, who ranks similarly in 3-point production.

• (11) Murray State vs. (6) Iowa

  Upset chance: 14.7%
  First round: noon ET Saturday, ESPN (Norman, Oklahoma; Spokane 4)

  The Racers live up to their name with a fast-paced style, ranking seventh in the country in pace and leading the nation with 87.8 points per game. Katelyn Young, a 3,000-point career scorer, could be the standout player in this game. While Iowa’s Hannah Stuelke and Lucy Olsen will challenge Young, if she dominates, the Racers could pull off the upset.

• (7) Vanderbilt vs. (2) Duke

  Second round: TBD Sunday (Durham, North Carolina; Birmingham 1)

  Both teams are expected to win their first-round games, setting up a clash between Vanderbilt’s high-scoring duo of freshman Mikayla Blakes (23.2 PPG) and sophomore Khamil Pierre (20.5 PPG) against Duke’s top-five defense. Duke’s impressive performance in the ACC tournament championship game against NC State was a highlight, but that momentum may have waned. Blakes, who scored 50 points twice this season, has proven herself against tough defenses like South Carolina and Texas in the SEC.

• (11) Iowa State vs. (6) Michigan

  First round: 11:30 a.m. ET Friday, ESPN2 (Notre Dame, Indiana; Birmingham 3)

  Both teams are known for their offensive efficiency, but they achieve it in different ways. Audi Crooks is a key player for Iowa State, and Michigan may struggle to contain her. The 6-3 sophomore post player was a force against Maryland last year, scoring 40 points, and Michigan’s smaller lineup could face challenges. The Cyclones must first get past Princeton in the First Four, where they have a 70.2% chance to advance, according to ESPN Analytics.

• (7) Louisville vs. (2) TCU

  Second round: TBD Sunday (Fort Worth, Texas; Birmingham 3)

  Despite last year’s setback, the Cardinals have been a formidable NCAA tournament team under Jeff Walz, making six consecutive Sweet 16 appearances. This year, Louisville is a young team with nothing to lose. In contrast, TCU, with eight seniors or graduates, faces internal pressure to make a deep run. This pressure can be a hindrance in close games. One of TCU’s veteran players, Hailey Van Lith, was part of Louisville’s postseason success before moving on to LSU and now Fort Worth, Texas. However, if any coach knows how to defend Van Lith, it’s Walz.

• (12) Green Bay vs. (5) Alabama

  Upset chance: 7.5%
  First round: 1:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN2 (College Park, Maryland; Birmingham 3)

  The Phoenix prefer a deliberate style of play, ranking 339th in the country in possessions per 40 minutes. Alabama, on the other hand, aims to create space for Sarah Ashlee Barker, Zaay Green, and Aaliyah Nye. If Green Bay can control the pace and keep the score in the 50s or low 60s, Alabama might struggle. The Phoenix also boast a 36% success rate from beyond the arc, and hitting timely 3-pointers in a low-scoring game could lead to a major upset.

• (11) George Mason vs. (6) Florida State

  Upset chance: 18%
  First Round: 7:45 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN2 (Baton Rouge, Louisiana; Spokane 1)

  This matchup is a gut feeling. BPI gives the Seminoles an 82.0% chance to win, but the Patriots have been on a roll, winning their past four games by an average of 19.0 points, including a 15-point victory in the Atlantic 10 tournament championship game. Under Vanessa Blair-Lewis, the program has undergone a remarkable transformation. The Patriots won just three games the season before her arrival, and now, four years later, they have 27 wins and are making their first NCAA tournament appearance. Slowing down Ta’Niya Latson will be a challenge, but if the nation’s leading scorer has an off game, George Mason could ride its momentum to an upset.

• (11) Washington vs. (6) West Virginia

  First round: 2 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPNews (Chapel Hill, North Carolina; Birmingham 2)

  The Huskies must first overcome Columbia in a First Four matchup, where they have a 58.1% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics. The Mountaineers bring a strong defensive presence, but Washington’s ability to make shots is the best counter to full-court pressure. Washington ranks in the top 10 in field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage. If they can break West Virginia’s press, there should be plenty of opportunities for leading scorers Elle Ladine and Sayvia Sellers to shine.