FCS Playoffs: The Road to the Championship
As we dive into the 2024 FCS playoffs, the landscape of the top teams has been quite clear. Montana State, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, and South Dakota have all had stellar seasons, going unbeaten against FCS opponents. These teams have navigated through various challenges, but their consistent performance has led them to the semifinals, where they were heavily favored to land. Now, with the semifinals upon us, only two of these powerhouses will advance to the national title game in January. It’s time to see who will rise to the occasion and who will fall short.
The semifinals are set to deliver thrilling matchups. First, we have a Dakota Marker rematch between No. 3 South Dakota State and No. 2 North Dakota State. This marks the sixth playoff meeting between these two rivals in 13 years. Following that, No. 4 South Dakota will face off against No. 1 Montana State, the only unbeaten team in the subdivision. Weather conditions are unlikely to play a significant role, as NDSU’s game is indoors, and temperatures in Bozeman are expected to be in the 40s. Fans are in for a treat with these exciting matchups.
Updated Projections
At the start of the playoffs, these four teams had a combined 86.5% chance of winning the title, according to SP+. The remaining 20 teams had just a 13.5% chance. As we approach the semifinals, the odds haven’t shifted significantly for any of the teams. However, South Dakota State’s odds have improved the most, thanks to their recent impressive performances. Over the past five games, they’ve exceeded SP+ projections by an average of 13.9 points.
Despite losing key players from their remarkable 2023 team, SDSU has found their rhythm under Jimmy Rogers. Their recent 55-14 victory over Incarnate Word showcased their potential. While all four semifinalists are in good form, SDSU and Montana State have been the most impressive in recent weeks.
Last Week’s Recap
In the quarterfinals, our semifinalists dominated their opponents, winning by an average score of 43-15. They held double-digit leads for a combined 136.2 of the 240 minutes played. South Dakota was the only team to experience any second-half anxiety, facing the fifth-best team in FCS, UC Davis.
Montana State faced a brief challenge against Idaho, tied 10-10 late in the second quarter. However, they quickly turned the tide with a 28-0 run, ultimately winning 52-19. Quarterback Tommy Mellott was instrumental, throwing for 174 yards and rushing for 131 yards, contributing to three touchdowns. Adam Jones added four rushing touchdowns. Despite allowing 407 yards to Idaho, MSU’s defense made crucial plays with three sacks and two takeaways.
South Dakota State wasted no time in their quarterfinal matchup, with two 35-yard touchdown passes from Mark Gronowski to Griffin Wilde putting them up 14-0 early in the second quarter. They extended their lead to 38-0 before Incarnate Word scored. SDSU’s defense sacked Zach Calzada three times and intercepted him once. The trio of Amar Johnson, Kirby Vorhees, and Chase Mason combined for 235 rushing yards.
Both North Dakota State and South Dakota faced tougher challenges. NDSU’s Cam Miller and Bryce Lance connected for two early touchdowns, but the Bison led by only 17 until a late Barika Kpeenu touchdown secured a 31-7 victory. South Dakota led most of the way against UC Davis but only held a 28-21 lead midway through the fourth quarter before sealing a 35-21 win with a 75-yard touchdown drive.
No. 3 South Dakota State at No. 2 North Dakota State
The upcoming clash between South Dakota State and North Dakota State is highly anticipated. NDSU’s offensive SP+ ranking is second, while SDSU’s is third. On defense, SDSU ranks first, and NDSU sixth. Both teams boast several first-team all-conference selections on both sides of the ball.
North Dakota State ended a five-game losing streak against SDSU with a 13-9 victory on October 19. Cam Miller’s late touchdown pass to RaJa Nelson secured the win. Despite SDSU’s slight advantages in yardage and yards per play, they struggled to convert opportunities into points, and a late interception by Logan Kopp sealed the Bison’s victory.
Since that game, NDSU has shown their potential, scoring at least 28 points in their last six games and holding opponents to 21 or fewer points four times. However, they did face a setback with a 29-28 loss to South Dakota to end the regular season and allowed 31 points in a playoff win over Abilene Christian.
SDSU, on the other hand, has been on a tear, winning their last six games by an average of 44-11. Gronowski has been efficient, completing 59% of his passes for 11 touchdowns and just one interception. Amar Johnson has been a force in the running game, averaging 7.5 yards per carry. Despite missing No. 2 RB Angel Johnson last week, SDSU didn’t miss a beat, defeating Montana and UIW by a combined 90-32.
The first meeting between these teams in 2024 was defined by explosive plays rather than steady dominance. With both teams in top form, this semifinal promises to be a thrilling contest.
ESPN BET projection: SDSU 24.0, NDSU 22.5 (SDSU -1.5, over/under 46.5) SP+ projection: SDSU 24.9, NDSU 24.6
No. 4 South Dakota at No. 1 Montana State
The second semifinal features South Dakota against Montana State. MSU’s offensive SP+ ranking is first, while USD’s is fourth. On defense, MSU ranks second, and USD fifth. Both teams have several first-team all-conference selections.
South Dakota has made significant strides under head coach Bob Nielson, with their offense improving dramatically since the arrival of offensive coordinator Josh Davis. Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis have been a dynamic duo in the backfield, while Aidan Bouman has been efficient in the passing game. Defensively, the Coyotes have been strong, led by standout Mi’Quise Grace.
Montana State, meanwhile, has been dominant at home, winning 34 of their last 35 games at Bobcat Stadium. Tommy Mellott has been a dual-threat quarterback, excelling in both the passing and running game. The Bobcats’ offense is loaded with talent, and their defense is relentless, with a deep roster of playmakers.
Head coach Brent Vigen has been building towards this moment, and MSU has been the best team in FCS throughout the season. However, facing two Dakota teams in the playoffs will require near perfection.
ESPN BET projection: MSU 32.25, USD 24.25 (MSU -8, over/under 56.5) SP+ projection: MSU 29.7, USD 21.2
Originally Written by: Bill Connelly
