FCS Playoffs: The Road to the Championship
As we dive into the 2024 FCS playoffs, the landscape of the top teams has been quite clear. Montana State, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, and South Dakota have all had stellar seasons, going unbeaten against FCS opponents. These teams have navigated through various challenges, but their consistent performance has led them to the semifinals, where they were heavily favored to land. Now, with the semifinals upon us, only two of these powerhouses will advance to the national title game in January. It’s time to see who will rise to the occasion and who will fall short.
The semifinals are set to deliver thrilling matchups. First, we have a Dakota Marker rematch between No. 3 South Dakota State and No. 2 North Dakota State (Saturday, noon ET, ABC). This marks the sixth playoff meeting between these two teams in 13 years. Following that, No. 4 South Dakota will face No. 1 Montana State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+), the only unbeaten team in the subdivision. Weather won’t be a factor, as NDSU plays indoors and Bozeman’s temperatures are expected to be in the 40s. Fans are in for a treat with these matchups.
Updated Projections
At the start of the playoffs, these four teams had a combined 86.5% chance of winning the title, according to SP+, with the other 20 teams sharing just 13.5%. As we approach the semifinals, the odds haven’t shifted significantly. However, South Dakota State’s chances have improved the most, thanks to their recent performance. The Jackrabbits have exceeded SP+ projections by an average of 13.9 points over their last five games.
Despite losing key players from their 2023 team, SDSU has found their rhythm under Jimmy Rogers. Their 55-14 victory over Incarnate Word last week showcased their potential. While all four semifinalists are in good form, SDSU and Montana State have been particularly impressive, consistently outperforming expectations.
Last Week’s Recap
In the quarterfinals, our semifinalists dominated, winning by an average score of 43-15. They led by double digits for a combined 136.2 of the 240 minutes played. South Dakota was the only team to experience any second-half anxiety, facing the fifth-best team in FCS, UC Davis.
Montana State was tied 10-10 with Idaho late in the second quarter but quickly turned the game around with a 28-0 run, ultimately winning 52-19. Quarterback Tommy Mellott was instrumental, throwing for 174 yards and rushing for 131 yards, contributing to three touchdowns. Adam Jones added four rushing touchdowns. Despite Idaho’s 407 yards, MSU’s defense secured the win with three sacks and two takeaways.
South Dakota State’s victory was even more decisive. Two 35-yard touchdown passes from Mark Gronowski to Griffin Wilde set the tone early, and a 59-yard pass to David Alpers extended their lead to 38-0. The Jackrabbits’ defense was relentless, sacking Zach Calzada three times and intercepting him once. Their rushing trio of Amar Johnson, Kirby Vorhees, and Chase Mason combined for 235 yards.
North Dakota State and South Dakota faced tougher challenges against Mercer and UC Davis, respectively. Cam Miller and Bryce Lance connected for two early touchdowns, but NDSU only secured a 31-7 win with a late Barika Kpeenu touchdown. South Dakota maintained a lead against UC Davis, eventually winning 35-21 with a decisive touchdown drive.
South Dakota State vs. North Dakota State
The rivalry between South Dakota State and North Dakota State is intense, with NDSU finally breaking a five-game losing streak against SDSU with a 13-9 win on October 19. Cam Miller’s late touchdown pass to RaJa Nelson sealed the victory. Despite SDSU’s slight yardage advantage, their inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities cost them the game.
NDSU has shown potential in recent games, scoring at least 28 points in their last six outings. However, they have also displayed vulnerabilities, losing to South Dakota and allowing 31 points to Abilene Christian. Against Mercer, they struggled to dominate despite a 24-point win.
SDSU, on the other hand, has been on a roll, winning their last six games by an average of 44-11. Gronowski has been efficient, and Amar Johnson has been a force on the ground. Even without No. 2 RB Angel Johnson, the Jackrabbits have thrived, defeating Montana and UIW convincingly.
The first meeting between these teams in 2024 was defined by explosive plays rather than trench warfare. With both teams in top form, expect a similar dynamic in the semifinals.
ESPN BET projection: SDSU 24.0, NDSU 22.5 (SDSU -1.5, over/under 46.5) SP+ projection: SDSU 24.9, NDSU 24.6
South Dakota vs. Montana State
South Dakota and Montana State have only met twice before, with MSU winning both encounters in 2008-09. South Dakota has come a long way since then, with head coach Bob Nielson transforming the program. The Coyotes’ offense, led by coordinator Josh Davis, has improved significantly, averaging 37.2 points per game in 2024. Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis have been dominant in the backfield, while Aidan Bouman has been efficient through the air.
Defensively, South Dakota has been solid, allowing just 16.6 points per game. Mi’Quise Grace has been a standout, particularly against top opponents. The Coyotes have proven themselves against NDSU and SDSU, and now they face the ultimate test against Montana State.
Montana State has been a powerhouse at home, winning 34 of their last 35 games at Bobcat Stadium. Tommy Mellott is a unique talent, excelling both as a passer and a runner. With a strong supporting cast, including backs Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones, and a formidable offensive line, MSU’s offense is a force to be reckoned with.
The Bobcats’ defense is equally impressive, with a deep roster of playmakers. Head coach Brent Vigen has built a team capable of achieving greatness, but they must overcome the challenge posed by South Dakota to reach the championship game.
ESPN BET projection: MSU 32.25, USD 24.25 (MSU -8, over/under 56.5) SP+ projection: MSU 29.7, USD 21.2
Originally Written by: Bill Connelly
