FCS Quarterfinals: A Weekend of Heavyweights and Underdogs
Every tournament has its own unique vibe, doesn’t it? Sometimes, we’re treated to a flurry of early-round upsets that leave us buzzing, only to see those Cinderella stories fizzle out in blowout losses later on. Other times, the early rounds stick to the script, setting the stage for epic heavyweight showdowns in the later rounds. The 2024 FCS playoffs? They’ve chosen the latter path, and we’re here for it.
The first two rounds weren’t without their fireworks. Lehigh stunned Richmond in the opening round, Illinois State survived a chaotic turnover-filled battle against SE Missouri State, and 10 of the 16 games saw teams light up the scoreboard with at least 34 points. Who doesn’t love points, right?
But when the dust settled, the top eight seeds all advanced to the quarterfinals with little drama. And now, we’re staring down four tantalizing matchups this weekend. Here’s what’s on tap:
- No. 8 Idaho at No. 1 Montana State (Friday, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
- No. 6 Incarnate Word at No. 3 South Dakota State (Saturday, noon, ESPN)
- No. 5 UC Davis at No. 4 South Dakota (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+)
- No. 7 Mercer at No. 2 North Dakota State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)
Let’s break down each matchup, one by one, and see what’s at stake as these teams battle for a spot in the semifinals.
No. 8 Idaho at No. 1 Montana State
Playoff results to date: MSU def. UT Martin 49-17; Idaho def. Lehigh 34-13
Offensive SP+ rankings: MSU first, Idaho 19th
Defensive SP+ rankings: MSU second, Idaho 19th
Montana State has been nothing short of dominant this season. The Bobcats are first in SP+, first in scoring offense, first in total offense, and boast a defense that ranks second in scoring and seventh in total defense. Quarterback Tommy Mellott has been electric, throwing for 2,256 yards with a jaw-dropping 26-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio while adding 659 rushing yards. Running backs Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones have combined for 2,298 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns. This team is stacked.
Idaho, on the other hand, has been a solid squad, but they were no match for Montana State earlier this season, losing 38-7. However, there’s a twist: Idaho quarterback Jack Layne is back from injury and has been on fire, throwing for 830 yards and nine touchdowns in his last three games. Can the Vandals flip the script in the rematch? It’s a tall order, but stranger things have happened in the playoffs.
ESPN Bet projection: MSU 33.5, Idaho 22.0 (MSU -11.5, over/under 55.5)
SP+ projection: MSU 38.3, Idaho 19.0
No. 6 Incarnate Word at No. 3 South Dakota State
Playoff results to date: SDSU def. Montana 35-18; UIW def. Villanova 13-6
Offensive SP+ rankings: SDSU third, UIW 14th
Defensive SP+ rankings: SDSU first, UIW 13th
This is another rematch, and the first meeting was a thriller. South Dakota State pulled away late for a 45-24 win, but Incarnate Word outgained them on a per-play basis. UIW quarterback Zach Calzada has been sensational, throwing for 3,533 yards and 34 touchdowns. His top targets, Jalen Walthall and Roy Alexander, have both surpassed 1,000 receiving yards.
But SDSU is still the reigning champ for a reason. Their defense has been lights out, allowing just 12.9 points per game. If the Jackrabbits can slow down Calzada and company, they’ll be in great shape to advance.
ESPN Bet projection: SDSU 36.5, UIW 18.0 (SDSU -18.5, over/under 54.5)
SP+ projection: SDSU 32.2, UIW 18.3
No. 7 Mercer at No. 2 North Dakota State
Playoff results to date: NDSU def. Abilene Christian 51-31; Mercer def. Rhode Island 17-10
Offensive SP+ rankings: NDSU second, Mercer 16th
Defensive SP+ rankings: Mercer seventh, NDSU 10th
Mercer is making history with its first trip to the quarterfinals, but they’re running into a buzzsaw in North Dakota State. The Bison have been an offensive juggernaut, scoring at least 51 points in three of their last five games. Quarterback Cam Miller has been incredibly efficient, completing 74% of his passes, while the running game, led by CharMar Brown and Barika Kpeenu, has been unstoppable.
Mercer’s defense, however, is no pushover. They’re allowing just 66.9 rushing yards per game, the best in FCS. If they can slow down NDSU’s ground attack, they might have a shot. But with a freshman quarterback under center, the Bears will need a near-perfect performance to pull off the upset.
ESPN Bet projection: NDSU 36.3, Mercer 17.3 (NDSU -19, over/under 53.5)
SP+ projection: NDSU 30.8, Mercer 19.1
No. 5 UC Davis at No. 4 South Dakota
Playoff results to date: USD def. Tarleton State 42-31; UCD def. Illinois State 42-10
Offensive SP+ rankings: USD fourth, UCD ninth
Defensive SP+ rankings: USD fifth, UCD 15th
UC Davis has been one of the most exciting teams in the playoffs, led by all-purpose star Lan Larison, who has racked up 1,425 rushing yards and 842 receiving yards this season. Quarterback Miles Hastings has been equally impressive, throwing for 4,148 yards and 35 touchdowns.
South Dakota, however, has a defense that can wreak havoc. Led by Mi’Quise Grace and Nick Gaes, the Coyotes have been a nightmare for opposing offenses. If they can contain Larison, they’ll have a great chance to advance.
ESPN Bet projection: South Dakota 30.5, UC Davis 25.0 (USD -5.5, over/under 55.5)
SP+ projection: South Dakota 26.8, UC Davis 18.6
Originally Written by: Bill Connelly
