Expert Analysis and Betting Insights: UFC Fight Night’s Main Event and More
As the anticipation builds for UFC Fight Night at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri, all eyes are on the rising welterweight contenders Ian Machado Garry and Carlos Prates. This Saturday, these two fighters will clash in a bout that could propel the winner closer to a coveted title shot. The main event is set to air at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, with prelims kicking off at 6 p.m. on ESPN+.
Ian Machado Garry, currently ranked No. 7 in ESPN’s divisional rankings, is coming off the first loss of his professional career against Shavkat Rakhmonov in December. Meanwhile, Carlos Prates, who remains unranked by ESPN, has been on a tear, knocking out each of his last 10 opponents. This matchup promises to be a thrilling display of skill and strategy.
To provide some expert insight into this highly anticipated fight, Brett Okamoto spoke with retired UFC welterweight and MMA analyst Alan Jouban. Additionally, ESPN betting expert Ian Parker offers his analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets on the card.
Editor’s note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Alan Jouban’s Main Event Analysis
How Machado Garry Wins: Machado Garry is known for his speed and slickness in the octagon. One of his standout qualities is his willingness to reset his positioning, even if it means enduring boos from the crowd for a “boring” fight. This strategic approach helps him avoid getting caught in bad spots. His key to victory lies in utilizing his speed and range, constantly resetting the fight to maintain control.
How Prates Wins: Prates presents a unique challenge with his short torso and long arms, making him deceptively difficult to deal with. His style is reminiscent of UFC Hall of Famer Anderson Silva, as he looks to hold his opponent in a stationary position and unleash his left-side weapons. To secure a win, Prates must corral Machado Garry, who excels at circling away, even if it means making the fight less exciting. Additionally, Prates may need to defend against takedown attempts from Machado Garry.
X Factor: The movement. Can Prates execute a Silva-like game plan and keep Machado Garry stationary, allowing him to unleash his powerful strikes?
Prediction: Jouban believes that Machado Garry’s movement will be too much for Prates to handle. His speed and slickness give him the edge in this matchup.
Betting Analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Over 2.5 Rounds. Prates’ first UFC main event will be a significant test against a top contender like Machado Garry. Despite Prates’ impressive performances in his first four UFC fights, he has never faced someone as skilled as Machado Garry. Even in his loss to Rakhmonov at UFC 310, Machado Garry demonstrated his ability to defend takedown attempts and keep the fight standing.
To secure a victory, Machado Garry needs to fight from the outside and avoid Prates’ power. If Machado Garry wins, it will likely be by decision or a late KO/TKO if Prates starts to tire. Prates’ stamina in the later rounds is a question mark, as none of his UFC fights have gone beyond Round 2. Given Prates’ power and patience, Parker predicts that the fight will reach Round 4, making the over 2.5 rounds bet a solid choice.
Parker’s Best Bets on the Rest of the Card
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Featherweight: Giga Chikadze vs. David Onama
Chikadze to Win (+140). This matchup has the potential to be the fight of the night. Onama’s knockout power and durability have earned him this fight against Chikadze. After a seven-fight winning streak was halted by Calvin Kattar, Chikadze has lost two of his last three fights. If he can keep the fight standing, strike from a distance, and avoid Onama’s power, Chikadze is a live underdog with a chance to win.
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Middleweight: Michel Pereira vs. Abus Magomedov
Pereira to Win (-140). Magomedov has rebounded from back-to-back losses with two wins, showcasing improved cardio. However, if he can’t control Pereira on the ground for the entire fight, it’s hard to see how he wins. Pereira, known for his wild fighting style, has found more control lately, leading to an eight-fight winning streak. In his last fight, he rocked Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez early but was outworked for the remainder. Magomedov lacks Hernandez’s wrestling skills, cardio, and pace, making Pereira the favorite to win on the feet.
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Strawweight: Jaqueline Amorim vs. Polyana Viana
Amorim to Win (-950), Under 2.5 Rounds (-260). Viana, coming off back-to-back losses by finish, is likely fighting to keep her spot on the UFC roster. Outside of an armbar or a knockout strike, this matchup seems unfavorable for Viana. Once the fight hits the mat, Amorim, one of the world’s best jiu-jitsu practitioners, is expected to make quick work of her. Amorim has finished her last three UFC opponents, making her a strong favorite to win and under 2.5 rounds a viable bet. For those looking for more specificity, picking Amorim to win by submission is a solid choice.
Originally Written by: Brett Okamoto,Ian Parker
