UFC 315: Belal Muhammad’s First Title Defense and Shevchenko’s Challenge
As the excitement builds for UFC 315, fans are eagerly anticipating a night filled with thrilling matchups and high-stakes battles. The main event features UFC welterweight champion Belal Muhammad as he steps into the Octagon for his first title defense against the formidable Jack Della Maddalena. The action kicks off on Saturday night at 8 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+/Disney+, with prelims starting at 6:30 p.m. on ESPN+/Disney+.
Belal Muhammad, who is ranked No. 10 on ESPN’s pound-for-pound list, has been on an impressive winning streak, having not lost a fight since January 2019. His most recent victory was a unanimous decision win over Leon Edwards, which earned him the welterweight title. On the other side of the cage, Della Maddalena, ESPN’s No. 3-ranked welterweight, is unbeaten in the UFC, boasting seven consecutive wins. His last fight saw him pull off a comeback third-round TKO over Gilbert Burns.
In the co-main event, women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko will defend her title against Manon Fiorot. Shevchenko is currently ranked No. 2 in the ESPN pound-for-pound women’s rankings. Fiorot, who is ESPN’s third-ranked flyweight, has an impressive 12-fight winning streak, with her last five victories coming by unanimous decision.
To provide some expert insights, Brett Okamoto spoke with retired UFC welterweight Dan Hardy for his perspective on the main event, while Andreas Hale got a breakdown of the co-main event from UFC strawweight Angela Hill. Additionally, ESPN betting expert Ian Parker offers his analysis on the two title fights and other intriguing bets on the card.
Editor’s note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Welterweight: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Belal Muhammad’s journey to becoming the UFC welterweight champion was marked by his upset victory over Leon Edwards at UFC 304 in Manchester. Now, as he prepares for his first title defense, the stakes are higher than ever.
Dan Hardy, retired UFC welterweight
How Muhammad wins: Muhammad is a well-rounded fighter with a strategic approach. He’s strong but not to the point of exhausting himself. His speed is sufficient to land effective strikes. Against Della Maddalena, Muhammad will likely use his wrestling to crowd his opponent, knowing that Della Maddalena’s boxing is sharp. If I were in his corner, I’d advise Muhammad to work at a slightly longer range and incorporate a lot of kicks. Della Maddalena’s sturdy stance makes him vulnerable to leg damage, and targeting his arms could also be effective, similar to Canelo Alvarez’s strategy.
How Della Maddalena wins: Della Maddalena is known for his exceptional boxing skills in MMA. His fundamentals are solid, and he has a keen sense of movement and target recognition. To succeed, he’ll need to find space to unleash his punches without fear of Muhammad’s takedowns. His finishing instinct is an advantage over Muhammad. Della Maddalena must maintain his fundamentals and avoid overextending himself, which could present problems for the champion.
X factor: Della Maddalena’s body punches could be a game-changer. Weakening Muhammad and slowing him down could discourage takedown attempts.
Prediction: Muhammad to win by unanimous decision. While Della Maddalena is a formidable opponent, Muhammad’s well-rounded skills give him the edge.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Muhammad to win (-185). If you’re considering betting on Muhammad, now is the time. His line has dropped from -220, making it an attractive option. Muhammad’s cardio and wrestling are significant advantages over Della Maddalena’s striking and knockout power. Given Muhammad’s dominant performance against Leon Edwards, it’s hard to envision a different outcome. Expect Muhammad to push the pace and use his wrestling to secure his first successful title defense.
Women’s flyweight: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot
Valentina Shevchenko’s dominance in the women’s flyweight division is well-documented, and her upcoming title defense against Manon Fiorot promises to be a captivating showdown.
Angela Hill, UFC strawweight
How Shevchenko wins: Shevchenko’s performance against Alexa Grasso at UFC 306 was nothing short of spectacular, and she aims to replicate that against Fiorot. Shevchenko’s striking versatility and slick takedown game set her apart. Her ability to maintain top pressure and capitalize on opponents’ mistakes makes her a formidable force. Against Fiorot, who relies on counterattacks, Shevchenko’s aggressive approach and head kicks could prove decisive.
How Fiorot wins: Fiorot’s size and defensive striking are her strengths. She uses long combos, check hooks, and side kicks to keep opponents at bay. Her ability to angle off during strikes makes it challenging for opponents to execute takedowns. However, Fiorot hasn’t finished an opponent since June 2021, so she’ll need to maintain a high pace and utilize her counter-combos and footwork to keep Shevchenko at bay.
X factor: Shevchenko’s experience and adaptability in five-round fights give her an edge. Fiorot’s size could pose challenges for Shevchenko in terms of takedowns and closing the distance.
Prediction: Shevchenko to win by decision.
Betting analysis
Parker: Fiorot to win (-135). Fiorot’s aggressive striking style and strong takedown defense make her a formidable opponent for Shevchenko. If Fiorot can fend off early takedown attempts and utilize her body kicks and distance striking, she has a chance to become the new champion.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card
- Men’s bantamweight: José Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi
- Women’s flyweight: Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva
Zahabi to win (+170). Zahabi has a chance to make a statement against Aldo, who has become a low-volume striker. Zahabi’s game plan could follow the blueprint of others who have defeated Aldo.
Silva to win by decision. Silva’s speed advantage and versatility make her a tough opponent for Grasso. While a finish is unlikely, Silva’s ability to control the fight could lead to a decision victory.
Originally Written by: ESPN staff
