Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg: A Clash of Flyweight Titans at UFC Fight Night
As the Octagon lights up in Mexico City Arena this Saturday night, all eyes will be on former two-time men’s flyweight champion Brandon Moreno. Making his first appearance of 2025, Moreno is set to face off against Steve Erceg at UFC Fight Night. The event kicks off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, with prelims starting at 4 p.m. ET on the same channels.
Moreno, currently ranked No. 3 in ESPN’s divisional rankings, has had a rollercoaster of a journey since losing his title to Alexandre Pantoja in July 2023. He faced another setback against Brandon Royval in February but managed to bounce back with a unanimous decision victory over Amir Albazi in November. On the other hand, Erceg, who holds the No. 7 spot in ESPN’s flyweight rankings, is looking to break a two-fight losing streak, including a title challenge loss to Pantoja at UFC 301 last May.
To get a deeper insight into this highly anticipated matchup, Brett Okamoto spoke with Syndicate MMA coach John Wood, while ESPN betting expert Ian Parker provided his analysis and predictions for the main event and other intriguing bets on the card.
Men’s Flyweight: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg
John Wood, Syndicate MMA Coach
How Moreno wins: Moreno has shown a more composed fighting style in his recent bouts, opting for strategic pressure and pace over reckless brawling. His ability to wear down opponents is a key strength. Incorporating a few takedowns could further deplete Erceg’s stamina, especially as the fight progresses. While Erceg is a formidable striker, mixing in wrestling and grappling could be a smart move for Moreno.
How Erceg wins: Erceg’s path to victory lies in avoiding prolonged striking exchanges with Moreno. Instead, he should focus on precise counterpunches. Moreno’s tendency to get wild at times could be exploited if Erceg can catch him early. However, Erceg must take the initiative in striking exchanges, as waiting for the perfect moment could cost him rounds and potentially the fight. Leading the attack and making Moreno miss while countering with powerful shots is crucial.
X factor: The altitude of Mexico City is notorious for affecting fighters’ endurance. Given Moreno’s exceptional cardio and relentless pressure, this factor could play a significant role in the outcome.
Prediction: Moreno to win by decision.
Betting Analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Moreno to win (-245); over 2.5 rounds. Moreno’s performance against Albazi was a testament to his ability to compete at the highest level. Fighting in his home country, Moreno’s incredible cardio and high output could pose a significant challenge for Erceg, especially if the Australian fighter isn’t acclimated to the elevation.
While Erceg has a power advantage on the feet, his recent losses make it unlikely for him to outshine Moreno, particularly in this environment. Moreno is a heavy favorite, and for good reason. To improve the odds, consider betting on the fight going over 2.5 rounds, as it’s expected to reach Round 4.
Parker’s Best Bets on the Rest of the Card
- Lightweight: Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober
- Middleweight: Jose Daniel Medina vs. Ateba Gautier
Dober to win (-110). Expect fireworks when Dober and Torres clash in the Octagon. Despite Dober’s two-fight losing streak, his experience gives him an edge over Torres, who is coming off his first TKO loss. This fight will test durability, and Dober’s proven resilience makes him the favorite.
Over 1.5 rounds (-170). Gautier boasts an 83% finish rate, with five of his six wins by knockout. However, Medina’s durability and stamina could turn this into a competitive bout. Gautier is a strong favorite, but Medina’s experience and endurance make the over 1.5 rounds a safer bet. Gautier’s lack of experience fighting at elevation could also play a role if he tires himself out early.
Originally Written by: ESPN staff
