Joaquin Buckley vs. Colby Covington: Can Buckley Keep His Streak Alive?
Fight fans, get ready for a showdown that promises fireworks! Joaquin Buckley is stepping into the Octagon to face former interim UFC welterweight champion Colby Covington in the main event of UFC Fight Night. The action kicks off at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, with prelims starting at 7 p.m. on the same platform. This is a fight you don’t want to miss!
Buckley (20-6), currently ranked No. 9 in ESPN’s welterweight rankings, is riding high on a five-fight win streak. He hasn’t tasted defeat since December 2022, and his most recent victory was a stunning third-round knockout of Stephen Thompson at UFC 307 in October. On the other hand, Covington (17-4), ranked No. 8 in the same division, is looking to bounce back after a tough loss to Leon Edwards in a welterweight title fight last December. Covington has dropped three of his last five fights, making this a critical moment in his career.
To break down this electrifying matchup, ESPN’s Brett Okamoto spoke with MMA analyst and former UFC welterweight Alan Jouban. Betting expert Ian Parker also chimed in with his insights and predictions for the main event and other fights on the card. Let’s dive into what they had to say.
Welterweight: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley
Alan Jouban, MMA Analyst and Former UFC Welterweight
How Covington wins: Jouban didn’t hold back when discussing Covington’s recent performances. “Covington’s last fight left me feeling that he was done,” Jouban said. Against Leon Edwards, Covington strayed from his usual game plan. Known for his relentless takedowns and high pace, he didn’t shoot for his first takedown until the third round and instead relied on slow kicks. To win against Buckley, Covington needs to return to his roots—push the pace, take risks with his striking, and set up takedowns early and often. Jouban doesn’t see Covington finishing Buckley, so his best bet is to drag the fight into deep waters and grind out a decision.
How Buckley wins: Buckley’s evolution as a fighter has been remarkable. “His grappling is underrated,” Jouban noted. While Buckley entered the UFC as a striker, he’s recently showcased his wrestling skills, as seen in his fight against Nursulton Ruziboev, where he repeatedly took his opponent down. Jouban believes Buckley’s improved fight IQ and physicality at 170 pounds give him a significant edge. “No one will expect Buckley to come in looking to wrestle, but I think he’ll walk Covington to the fence and create an opportunity to slam him to the ground,” Jouban said.
X factor: Buckley’s physicality is a game-changer. At just 30 years old, he’s in his prime and looks phenomenal at welterweight. Even if Covington manages to take him down, Buckley has the explosiveness to get back to his feet and keep the fight standing.
Prediction: Jouban is leaning toward Buckley. “I have a hard time saying he will finish Covington,” he admitted, but he believes Buckley’s aggression and versatility will be too much for Covington to handle. If Covington fights cautiously, as he did against Edwards, it will be difficult for Buckley to secure a finish. However, if Covington takes risks, he opens himself up to being knocked out.
Betting Analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Buckley to win (-290), over 1.5 rounds. Ian Parker sees this as a tough matchup for Covington, especially given his recent struggles and the fact that he’s now training on his own. “We already know what Covington will do—push forward with a menacing pace and try to wrestle Buckley for five rounds to a decision,” Parker said. However, Buckley’s takedown defense and striking advantage make him the favorite. Parker suggests taking Buckley on the money line or pairing him in a parlay for better odds. For those looking for more value, he recommends betting on Buckley to win and the fight to go over 1.5 rounds.
Parker’s Best Bets on the Rest of the Card
- Light Heavyweight: Vitor Petrino vs. Dustin Jacoby – Parker likes Jacoby to win (+250). He sees value in Jacoby’s striking and experience, especially against a fighter like Petrino, who is coming off a first-round submission loss.
- Women’s Flyweight: Miranda Maverick vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth – Parker predicts Maverick to win inside the distance. He believes this is the easiest matchup of Maverick’s UFC career and expects a dominant performance.
- Strawweight: Josefine Knutsson vs. Piera Rodriguez – Parker picks Knutsson to win (-240). He suggests using Knutsson as part of a parlay or betting on her to win by decision for better odds.
With a stacked card and plenty of intriguing matchups, UFC Fight Night is shaping up to be a must-watch event. Will Buckley extend his win streak, or can Covington turn back the clock and reclaim his spot among the welterweight elite? Tune in to find out!
Originally Written by: Brett Okamoto
