Premier League Power Rankings: A Season of Surprises and Shifts
As we look back on the 2024-25 Premier League season, it’s clear that the journey has been anything but predictable. From the early days of August, when it seemed almost too hopeful to place Nottingham Forest at 14th, to the rollercoaster of perceptions that followed, this season has kept fans and analysts alike on their toes.
In September, the buzz was all about Brighton and Tottenham Hotspur, both of whom seemed poised to be among the top five teams in England. Fast forward to November, and the belief in Spurs as top-five contenders persisted, while Manchester United was still seen as a midtable team. By January, the spotlight had shifted to AFC Bournemouth, as they captured the imagination of many.
Recording semi-regular power rankings over a long season reveals just how fluid perceptions can be. This year, with both the title and relegation battles decided before May, we find ourselves watching Newcastle United and Aston Villa rise, while Forest falls back to their starting point. And yes, we’re still dreaming of a postseason playoff.
The Final Premier League Team Rankings
Our final updated power rankings for the 2024-25 season are here, reflecting the changes since our last update in January. Newcastle and Villa are soaring, Manchester City remains steady at No. 4, and Forest’s stumble was, in hindsight, quite predictable.
Newcastle and Aston Villa’s Late Surge
Imagine if the Premier League adopted a playoff system like the Belgian Pro League, where the top six teams play an additional round-robin to determine the champion. Using Simon Tinsley’s full-season projections, a six-team playoff would start with Liverpool at 44 points, Arsenal at 37, Manchester City and Newcastle at 35, and Chelsea and Aston Villa at 33. While catching Liverpool would be a tall order, Newcastle and Villa could realistically round out a post-playoff top three.
Newcastle has been on a tear, losing just one of their last 10 matches, while Villa has lost only three of their last 15. Since March 8, these two teams have averaged more than 2.0 points per game in league play, with Villa at 2.63 and Newcastle at 2.44. Their rise in the rankings is well-deserved.
Newcastle’s success is fueled by the dynamic wing duo of Jacob Murphy and Harvey Barnes, who have combined for seven goals and seven assists since March 8. Barnes, in particular, has been a revelation, nearly matching his previous season’s output at Leicester City in far fewer minutes.
For Villa, it’s been about solid defense and impactful substitutions. Despite a low possession rate, they’ve allowed opponents to take shots from poor positions, leading the league in expected goals (xG) per shot allowed. Late in matches, Villa has been lethal, scoring seven goals from the 70th minute onward while conceding just one.
Both teams needed this late surge. Heading into March 8, Villa was seventh with 45 points, and Newcastle was eighth with 44. Now, they’re among the top 10 teams in the world, according to the Opta supercomputer. Newcastle’s odds of finishing in the top five have surged to 95%, while Villa’s range between 37% and 42%.
Manchester City’s Struggles
Manchester City, on the other hand, never quite found their rhythm. Despite spending €218m on transfers in January, their performance has been underwhelming. Their adjusted goal difference improved slightly, but not enough to return them to their dominant form.
While City’s defense has improved, their attack has faltered. They’ve traded one form of instability for another, and their inability to generate quality attempts was evident in their recent match against Southampton.
With two games left, City is just two points clear of missing out on the Champions League. While they’re likely to hang on, significant changes are needed if they hope to contend for the Premier League title next season.
Nottingham Forest’s Fall
Nottingham Forest’s season has been a tale of overachievement and eventual regression. On April 1, they were in third place, but six matchdays later, they’re in seventh. Their recent form has been poor, and their xG numbers suggest they were always punching above their weight.
Forest’s upcoming matches against West Ham and Chelsea will be crucial, but their chances of securing a Champions League spot are dwindling.
The Midtable’s Strength
The Premier League’s midtable has been surprisingly strong this season. Teams like Brentford and Crystal Palace have impressed, and the league’s depth has made it more competitive than ever.
According to Club Elo ratings, several midtable teams rank among the top 25 in the world, highlighting the league’s overall strength. As we look ahead to next season, it’s clear that the Premier League will only get tougher.
Originally Written by: Bill Connelly,Ryan O’Hanlon
