CFP Rankings Stir Controversy: What’s a Win Really Worth?
What’s the value of a win? It’s a question that’s been debated endlessly in college football circles, and this week’s College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings have only added fuel to the fire. The top four teams remain unchanged, but the drama is everywhere else, with Indiana tumbling out of the top 10 and the Big 12 facing a potential playoff shutout. Let’s dive into the chaos and try to make sense of it all.
Indiana’s Case: Do 10 Wins Mean Anything?
Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti was visibly frustrated when asked if his 10-1 Hoosiers still deserved a playoff spot after a 23-point blowout loss to Ohio State. His argument? A 10-1 record in the Big Ten should speak for itself. But critics were quick to point out that Indiana’s lone loss came against the only SP+ top-30 team on their schedule, raising questions about the quality of their wins.
On the flip side, Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark is fighting a different battle. He’s adamant that his conference champion deserves a playoff bye, even if it means leapfrogging a Group of 5 champion. Yormark cited strength of schedule, margin of victory, and advanced metrics to make his case. But here’s the catch: the Big 12 champ could end up with two more losses than the Group of 5 representative. So, who’s right?
Crunching the Numbers
Let’s turn to the math. Using FPI’s pre-game win expectations, we can calculate the “degree of difficulty” for each team’s victories. Indiana’s 10 wins, for example, had just a 12% chance of happening, making their record statistically impressive. Compare that to Texas, whose 10 wins had a 42.4% chance of occurring. By this metric, Indiana’s season looks more remarkable than Texas’. But FPI also accounts for team quality, and Texas is simply a better team on paper.
Strength of schedule (SoS) is another factor, but it’s a tricky one. Indiana’s schedule ranked 106th nationally before their game against Ohio State, jumping to 51st afterward. Did that make their wins more impressive? Not really. They still beat teams from a weak schedule and lost to the only elite opponent they faced.
ESPN’s Strength of Record (SoR) metric offers some clarity. It ranks Texas at No. 5 and Indiana at No. 7, but the difference between the two is just 3%. That’s hardly significant, especially when you consider that teams don’t control how good their opponents are. For instance, is it Texas’ fault that Michigan, last year’s national champion, isn’t as strong this season?
Group of 5 vs. Big 12: A Brewing Storm
Nowhere is the debate more heated than in the Big 12. Imagine this scenario: Boise State and Tulane win their respective conference championships, while the Big 12 champ is a three-loss team like Kansas State or Colorado. Both Boise State and Tulane are currently ranked higher than any Big 12 team, setting the stage for a potential playoff shutout for the conference.
Yormark isn’t having it. “Based on where we sit today, I see no rationale for the Big 12’s champion not getting a first-round bye,” he told Yahoo Sports. But the committee doesn’t rank strength of schedule, and Boise State’s lone loss to Oregon looks far better than, say, Iowa State’s losses to Kansas and Texas Tech.
It’s a situation eerily reminiscent of 2014, when the Big 12 was left out of the playoff despite strong seasons from Baylor and TCU. Could history repeat itself? If it does, expect fireworks from Big 12 fans and officials alike.
Clemson’s Curious Comeback
Somehow, Clemson has clawed its way back into the playoff conversation, sitting at No. 12 with a 9-2 record. But does their résumé justify it? Their best win came against Virginia Tech, a 5-6 team on the verge of missing a bowl game. Their next-best win was a controversial victory over Pitt, a team currently mired in a four-game losing streak.
Meanwhile, Clemson’s losses to Georgia and Louisville were anything but close. So why are they ranked ahead of teams like Arizona State, BYU, and Alabama, all of whom have better Strength of Record metrics? The Tigers will face South Carolina this weekend in what could be a de facto play-in game for the playoff. But whether they deserve to be in that position is another question entirely.
Notre Dame’s Nightmare Scenario
Notre Dame sits at No. 5, the highest they can go as an independent team. But their position is precarious. With three Big Ten teams and Georgia breathing down their necks, the Irish could find themselves on the outside looking in when the final rankings are released.
Notre Dame’s résumé is strong, with six wins against teams with 7-4 records or better. But their Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois looms large. It’s the worst loss of any playoff contender and could cost them a home game in the postseason. For a team that’s outscored opponents by an average of 33 points per game during a nine-game winning streak, that would be a bitter pill to swallow.
Other Teams Feeling the Heat
- UNLV Rebels: Despite a 9-2 record and wins over Power 4 opponents, UNLV is ranked behind Tulane, a team with a weaker résumé.
- Duke and Syracuse: Both teams are 8-3 but unranked, despite having comparable or better résumés than some ranked teams.
- The Big 12: Facing the possibility of being shut out of the playoff entirely, the conference is in full panic mode.
As the regular season winds down, the CFP committee has some tough decisions to make. But one thing is clear: no matter what they decide, someone is going to be angry.
Originally Written by: David Hale
