Why This Year’s Final Four is a Historic Showdown
When I first dipped my toes into the world of broadcasting, I was labeled a “color commentator.” My role was to dissect players and teams, explaining why they were good, and to analyze game matchups, highlighting what to watch for and which factors would determine the outcome. Back in those days, we would craft a preseason top 20, trying to predict which teams and players would shine. Occasionally, we were asked for a prediction, but it wasn’t the main focus.
Somewhere along the line, I transitioned into a “basketball analyst,” a title that sounds a bit pretentious. Suddenly, we were expected to pick winners for each game, which felt counterintuitive to my instincts. After all, if I truly knew who would win, why wouldn’t I just head to Las Vegas, lounge by the pool with a drink in hand, and rake in the winnings? The truth is, nobody knows who will win. Sure, we can point to matchups and factors that will influence the game, but nobody knows for sure.
Despite this, fans get worked up over analysts’ picks, which is why our bosses insist we make them. I fill out one bracket each year, and after making my picks on Selection Sunday — in an article where I pick every men’s NCAA tournament game for your pleasure and my pain — I don’t dwell on them. I’m more interested in the action on the court. But nobody lets us forget those picks, despite their ultimate insignificance.
This year, I faced a conundrum. When I examined the paths of each No. 1 seed, I genuinely liked what I saw for each. But what were the odds that all four No. 1 seeds would reach the Final Four? Since seeding began in 1979, all four No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four only once, in 2008, in San Antonio. That year, I found myself in a similar predicament: I liked the path of each No. 1 seed independently. When filling out the bracket, I had all four advancing to San Antonio. And in the end, all four did make it. This year, the feat was accomplished for only the second time. My overall record of games picked in my article is 45-15, including the correct Final Four in San Antonio. And notwithstanding my picks or yours, this Final Four is historic, but it is not unprecedented.
It might not be as flashy; I received a tremendous amount of criticism for my picks in 2008 and again this year. But there’s something to remember: While the NCAA tournament is a spectacle, it also serves as the national championship. And we’re fortunate to have the four best teams from the season battling it out near the Alamo for the trophy and the chance to cut down the nets.
This Final Four is absolutely incredible. These four squads are the top four teams in the KenPom.com efficiency ratings (the most digestible analytics for fans) and have a combined record of 135-16. All four teams are rated in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which is amazing and unusual. Better still, these four teams are each among the top 10 most efficient in the history of KenPom.com ratings, available since 1997. Duke is No. 2 all time, Houston No. 6, Florida No. 8, and Auburn No. 10. That is all time.
Every season and every NCAA tournament is different, which is one of the beautiful things about the event. Two years ago, San Diego State and Florida Atlantic reached the Final Four, and the overarching narrative was that NIL and the transfer portal had flattened the Earth, that talent would be more spread out, and the reign of the major conferences could be over. This year, upsets were not as prevalent, and all 16 teams in the Sweet 16 were from four major conferences (seven from the SEC, four from the Big Ten, four from the Big 12, and one from the ACC). Now, it was said, the transfer portal and NIL have killed mid-majors, who are just organ donors for the major conferences.
Of course, neither is true. One data point does not make a trend, and this is just one year. Two years ago, this year’s Sweet 16 would have represented seven conferences, with Houston in the American, BYU in the West Coast Conference, and Arizona in the Pac-12. Would that make everyone feel better?
As the games approach, it’s time to forget the discourse — and, yes, the picks — and focus on the basketball that’s in store. These four teams — all-time greats — had to earn their way here and did. The competition among them will be delicious, and I cannot wait to see it.
- Florida Gators: The Gators played a solid nonconference schedule but not a powerful one. However, Florida has not lost a game against a team outside of the SEC this season. Todd Golden has the deepest team at the Final Four, and no team was playing better basketball as the NCAA tournament started than the Gators. Golden has a quartet of guards that is easily the equal of any in the nation, led by first-team All-American Walter Clayton Jr., as capable a bucket-getter as there is in the college game. Clayton, who played for Rick Pitino at Iona and was a big-time football recruit out of high school, is the one guy who can break off a play and create his own shot, and he has done so against UConn and Texas Tech. Without Clayton, Florida would not be here right now. Florida also has outstanding big men who are skilled passers, ball handlers, and offensive rebounders; they seal off help defenders as well as any bigs in the country, opening up driving lanes to the rim where a shot blocker cannot get to.
- Auburn Tigers: No team played a tougher schedule than Auburn, and none won more quality games throughout the regular season. The Tigers have some similarities to Florida regarding depth of talent, and Auburn has outstanding guards. Whether it is Miles Kelly (the best shooter), Denver Jones (the best defender and clutch performer) or Tahaad Pettiford (the lefty bucket-getter), Auburn’s guards shoot 40% from deep and 88% from the foul line. While Auburn is not a great free-throw-shooting team overall, the guards are knockdown foul shooters, which can separate the Tigers at the end of games. Of course, having Johni Broome, the lefty national player of the year contender, provides Bruce Pearl with a run stopper who can score on demand or pass out of a double-team to combat most defensive schemes.
- Duke Blue Devils: Duke is the most talented team, the longest and the biggest, and it is the only one to rank in KenPom’s top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Despite having five freshmen in the rotation (they say you can’t win with freshmen, but you can), Duke plays with the togetherness and the consistency — at both ends — of a much older, more seasoned team. Led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, the best player in the country, Duke has multiple weapons to spread the floor, knock down perimeter shots, punch the lane off the dribble or the pass, and put pressure on the rim with the vertical threat of Khaman Maluach. Duke is the best finishing team at the rim and the best free-throw-shooting squad, and it has the best 2-point defense in the Final Four.
- Houston Cougars: Houston has lost only four games this season, three of which were in overtime. The Cougars lead the nation in playing hard, and they are relentless on defense and on the glass. With traps coming off ball-screen situations and in the post, Houston makes everything difficult and is physical in layup lines. Nothing is easy against Houston, which has one of the truly admirable winning cultures in sports. To beat Houston, you must accept the physical challenge presented and play through contact. But this season, Houston is much more than an offensive rebounding and defensive team. Houston is the best perimeter shooting team in the Final Four, shooting 40% from deep as a team, with L.J. Cryer, Emanuel Sharp, and Milos Uzan all shooting better than 41% from 3, led by Uzan at 44.5%. Houston will challenge at the rim, and big men J’Wan Roberts, Joseph Tugler, and Ja’Vier Francis are all long, strong, athletic defenders and rebounders.
As we gear up for these thrilling matchups, let’s set aside the chatter and focus on the incredible basketball that’s about to unfold. These four teams have earned their place, and the competition promises to be nothing short of spectacular. I, for one, can’t wait to witness it all.
Originally Written by: Jay Bilas
