Army-Navy Game: A Historic Rivalry Meets Modern Betting Trends
When it comes to college football, few traditions are as iconic as the annual Army–Navy game. This isn’t just a football game; it’s a celebration of American history, military pride, and the enduring rivalry between the nation’s land and sea forces. Every December, fans across the country tune in to watch this storied matchup, which has become a cultural event as much as a sporting one.
But in recent years, another tradition has emerged alongside the game: betting. As the final game of the college football regular season and the only major game on that Saturday, the Army-Navy showdown has become a prime opportunity for sports bettors. And one particular trend has captured the attention of the betting public: wagering on the under.
The Undeniable Appeal of the Under
For years, betting the under in the Army-Navy game has been a near-guaranteed play. Why? It all comes down to the style of play. Army, Navy, and fellow service academy Air Force are known for their option offenses, which rely heavily on time-consuming running plays. When these teams face each other, their familiarity with the option often leads to low-scoring, defensive battles.
From 2006 to 2021, the Army-Navy game hit the under an incredible 16 consecutive times. That streak was finally broken in 2022 when the over hit by five points. However, the under made a triumphant return in 2023. The total for that game closed at a jaw-dropping 28.5 points—the lowest in the rivalry’s history and one of the lowest in college football history. Army’s dramatic goal-line stand with a 17-9 lead in the final seconds, followed by an intentional safety, sealed a 17-11 victory and preserved the under.
2024: A New Chapter in the Rivalry
This year’s 125th Army-Navy game brings a fresh layer of intrigue. Both teams have had standout seasons, which could make this matchup one of the most heavily bet games in recent memory. According to DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello, “This should be maybe an even more heavily bet game than it’s been in the past because of the success both teams have had this season.”
Army, now a member of the AAC, claimed the conference title with an 11-1 record, narrowly missing out on the College Football Playoff. Navy also impressed, finishing third in the conference. The possibility of these two teams meeting in the AAC Championship Game before their annual rivalry game was tantalizing, but it didn’t come to pass. Still, their success has sportsbooks buzzing.
Offensive Firepower Changes the Betting Landscape
One of the most surprising developments this season has been the offensive resurgence of both teams. Army is averaging 32.92 points per game, its highest mark since 1985, while Navy is close behind at 32.27 points per game, its best since 2019. This offensive explosion has led sportsbooks to open the total for this year’s game at 41.5 points—the highest since 2017 (45).
“If you want to play tradition, yeah, go ahead and bet the under,” Avello said. “But if you want to play based on what we’ve seen this year, maybe the under is not so much the play.”
Here’s a quick breakdown of the numbers:
- Army games were 7-5 to the over this season.
- Navy games hit the over at an 8-3 clip.
- Navy’s rivalry game against Air Force went over the 37.5 total in a 34-7 win.
- Army’s game against Air Force went under 38.5 in a 20-3 victory.
With these stats in mind, it’s no wonder sportsbooks are seeing action on both sides of the total. ESPN BET director of North American sports trading Adrian Horton explained, “Our internal modeling and evaluations of both teams throughout this season determined where we opened the total, which off the bat was almost two touchdowns higher than last year’s total.”
Betting Trends and Line Movements
Despite the offensive fireworks, the tradition of betting the under still looms large. Caesars Sportsbook’s head of football Joey Feazel noted, “The tradition of an Army-Navy under is still going to be on the betting public’s mind.” Early action has supported this, with ESPN BET’s total dropping to 38.5 before rebounding to 39.5. Even at that number, it would still be the highest total since 2019 (41).
On the spread, Army opened as a 2.5-point favorite but quickly jumped to -4.5 after its AAC Championship win. Heavy betting on the Black Knights pushed the line to -7 before settling at -6.5. ESPN BET reported that 95.4% of early bets and 97.5% of the handle were on Army, though those numbers have since dipped slightly.
What to Watch For
As the betting public weighs tradition against this season’s results, the 2024 Army-Navy game promises to be one of the most compelling in years. Will the under continue its dominance, or will the newfound offensive firepower of both teams lead to a high-scoring affair? One thing is certain: this game will challenge bettors to think carefully about their picks.
“I think that the bettors will view this game differently than Army-Navy games in the past,” Avello said. “It’s just not ‘bet an under with your eyes closed.’ I don’t think that’s the way this game’s going to be bet this year.”
Originally Written by: David Purdum
