NHL Playoff Watch: Eastern Conference Finals and Beyond

Exciting NHL Playoff Picture: Eastern Conference Finals and Beyond

As we approach the final stretch of the NHL regular season, each team has about 20 games left to play. However, the Florida Panthers will be without their top defenseman, Aaron Ekblad, for all 18 of their remaining regular-season games due to a suspension. This development adds an interesting twist to the playoff race, especially as we start dreaming about potential matchups for the conference finals and the Stanley Cup Final.

One of the most anticipated games in Tuesday’s 11-game lineup is a potential Eastern Conference finals preview. The Tampa Bay Lightning are set to visit the Carolina Hurricanes at 7:30 p.m. ET, available to stream on ESPN+, Hulu, and Disney+. Both teams are built for postseason success, and this matchup could offer a glimpse into what we might see later this spring.

While the winner of this game won’t necessarily have an edge heading into the postseason, we can turn to the projections from Stathletes to gauge the likelihood of a rematch. According to the Stathletes model, the Hurricanes have the highest chances of making the Eastern Conference Finals (ECF) at 48.2%, followed by the Panthers at 38.2%, the Washington Capitals at 30.6%, and the Lightning at 29.8%. The Toronto Maple Leafs round out the top five with an 18.6% chance.

If it comes down to the Hurricanes and Lightning, Tampa Bay holds the historical upper hand. They won the teams’ lone series against each other during the slightly unusual 2021 playoffs when both teams were in the realigned Central Division. This division also included the Panthers, Chicago Blackhawks, Dallas Stars, Detroit Red Wings, and Nashville Predators.

With the final day of the season set for April 17, there’s still a lot of hockey left to be played. We’ll keep you updated on the NHL playoff watch, providing details on all the playoff races and the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Current Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

• A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
• A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
• M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Columbus Blue Jackets
• M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils

Western Conference

• C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 Calgary Flames
• C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
• P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
• P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings

Tuesday’s Games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).

• Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins, 7 p.m.
• Columbus Blue Jackets at New Jersey Devils, 7 p.m.
• Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers, 7 p.m.
• Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins, 7 p.m.
• Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+)
• Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild, 8 p.m.
• New York Rangers at Winnipeg Jets, 8 p.m.
• Montreal Canadiens at Vancouver Canucks, 10 p.m.
• Washington Capitals at Anaheim Ducks, 10 p.m.
• New York Islanders at Los Angeles Kings, 10:30 p.m.
• Nashville Predators at San Jose Sharks, 10:30 p.m.

Monday’s Scoreboard

• Buffalo Sabres 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
• Ottawa Senators 2, Detroit Red Wings 1
• Colorado Avalanche 3, Chicago Blackhawks 0
• Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Utah Hockey Club 3 (SO)

Expanded Standings

Atlantic Division

• Florida Panthers: 83 points, 34 regulation wins, A1 playoff position, 18 games left, 106.3 points pace, next game @ BOS (Tuesday), 99.9% playoff chances
• Toronto Maple Leafs: 81 points, 31 regulation wins, A2 playoff position, 18 games left, 103.8 points pace, next game vs. FLA (Thursday), 99.9% playoff chances
• Tampa Bay Lightning: 78 points, 32 regulation wins, A3 playoff position, 19 games left, 101.5 points pace, next game @ CAR (Tuesday), 99.9% playoff chances
• Ottawa Senators: 71 points, 24 regulation wins, WC1 playoff position, 19 games left, 92.4 points pace, next game @ PHI (Tuesday), 91.6% playoff chances
• Montreal Canadiens: 66 points, 21 regulation wins, N/A playoff position, 19 games left, 85.9 points pace, next game @ VAN (Tuesday), 9.7% playoff chances
• Detroit Red Wings: 66 points, 22 regulation wins, N/A playoff position, 18 games left, 84.6 points pace, next game vs. BUF (Wednesday), 9.4% playoff chances
• Boston Bruins: 66 points, 22 regulation wins, N/A playoff position, 17 games left, 83.3 points pace, next game vs. FLA (Tuesday), 5.6% playoff chances
• Buffalo Sabres: 56 points, 21 regulation wins, N/A playoff position, 19 games left, 72.9 points pace, next game @ DET (Wednesday), ~0% playoff chances

Metro Division

• Washington Capitals: 92 points, 35 regulation wins, M1 playoff position, 18 games left, 117.9 points pace, next game @ ANA (Tuesday), 99.9% playoff chances
• Carolina Hurricanes: 80 points, 33 regulation wins, M2 playoff position, 18 games left, 102.5 points pace, next game vs. TB (Tuesday), 99.9% playoff chances
• New Jersey Devils: 74 points, 30 regulation wins, M3 playoff position, 17 games left, 93.4 points pace, next game vs. CBJ (Tuesday), 93.9% playoff chances
• Columbus Blue Jackets: 70 points, 23 regulation wins, WC2 playoff position, 19 games left, 91.1 points pace, next game @ NJ (Tuesday), 42.1% playoff chances
• New York Rangers: 68 points, 29 regulation wins, N/A playoff position, 18 games left, 87.1 points pace, next game @ WPG (Tuesday), 28.1% playoff chances
• New York Islanders: 65 points, 23 regulation wins, N/A playoff position, 20 games left, 86.0 points pace, next game @ LA (Tuesday), 16.9% playoff chances
• Philadelphia Flyers: 62 points, 17 regulation wins, N/A playoff position, 17 games left, 78.2 points pace, next game vs. OTT (Tuesday), 2.4% playoff chances
• Pittsburgh Penguins: 60 points, 17 regulation wins, N/A playoff position, 16 games left, 74.6 points pace, next game vs. VGK (Tuesday), 0.3% playoff chances

Race for the No. 1 Pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.

• 1. San Jose Sharks: 43 points, 12 regulation wins
• 2. Chicago Blackhawks: 49 points, 17 regulation wins
• 3. Nashville Predators: 55 points, 20 regulation wins
• 4. Buffalo Sabres: 56 points, 21 regulation wins
• 5. Seattle Kraken: 58 points, 22 regulation wins
• 6. Pittsburgh Penguins: 60 points, 17 regulation wins
• 7. Philadelphia Flyers: 62 points, 17 regulation wins
• 8. Anaheim Ducks: 63 points, 20 regulation wins
• 9. New York Islanders: 65 points, 23 regulation wins
• 10. Montreal Canadiens: 66 points, 21 regulation wins
• 11. Detroit Red Wings: 66 points, 22 regulation wins
• 12. Boston Bruins: 66 points, 22 regulation wins
• 13. Utah Hockey Club: 67 points, 20 regulation wins
• 14. New York Rangers: 68 points, 29 regulation wins
• 15. St. Louis Blues: 69 points, 22 regulation wins
• 16. Vancouver Canucks: 69 points, 23 regulation wins