Elite Goaltenders Set to Shine in Key NHL Matchups
Tuesday night’s NHL action is shaping up to be a goaltending showcase, with two marquee matchups that could feature some of the league’s top netminders. The Toronto Maple Leafs face off against the New Jersey Devils, while the Minnesota Wild take on the Utah Hockey Club. What makes these games particularly intriguing is the potential for elite goaltending on both ends of the ice. If the expected starters take the crease, we could see goalies ranked among the top 13 in goals-against average (GAA) in every net, and three of the four goalies ranked in the top six for save percentage.
Let’s break it down. Filip Gustavsson of the Wild is the undisputed leader in both GAA and save percentage among goalies with at least 300 minutes played this season. The Maple Leafs’ tandem of Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll also rank in the top five in both categories. Meanwhile, Utah’s Karel Vejmelka sits fifth in GAA and sixth in save percentage. The Devils’ Jacob Markstrom, while not as dominant, still cracks the top 13 in GAA, though his save percentage lags at 25th. Regardless, this lineup of goaltenders is nothing short of impressive and could heavily influence the outcomes of these games.
Do Elite Goalies Impact Betting Trends?
Here’s a question worth pondering: Does having a statistically elite goaltender affect sports betting outcomes, particularly when it comes to the over/under? The answer isn’t straightforward, as there are a couple of “chicken-versus-egg” dilemmas to consider.
First, sportsbooks likely account for elite goaltending when setting odds, which can skew results toward the under. For example, the Wild’s goaltending situation is a prime example of uncertainty, as Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury have vastly different statistical profiles. This season, 62% of games have had a 6.5 total for the over/under. However, when a top-tier goalie is involved, that number drops to 53%.
Second, the list of statistical leaders evolves throughout the season. Joseph Woll, for instance, wasn’t among the leaders earlier in the year due to a late start caused by injury. His current inclusion reflects his recent stellar performances rather than season-long dominance. This means that any analysis of betting trends tied to elite goaltenders is inherently tied to the current moment.
Breaking Down the Numbers
Despite these challenges, the data does suggest that elite goaltenders can influence betting outcomes. Across all games this season, 53.6% have hit the under. But when games feature goalies ranked in the top 13 for GAA, the under hits 56.5% of the time. For games with goalies in the top six for save percentage, that number jumps to an impressive 64.8%.
For games with a 6.5 over/under total, the overall under hit rate is 57.8%. However, when GAA leaders are involved, it rises to 62.6%, and for save percentage leaders, it soars to 74%. In fact, in 47 games with a 6.5 total involving the top six save percentage leaders (Gustavsson, Connor Hellebuyck, Stolarz, Lukas Dostal, Woll, and Vejmelka), 35 games have gone under.
When sportsbooks adjust for these goaltenders with a 5.5 total, the margins narrow. The overall under hit rate for 5.5 games is 46.7%, but it climbs to 49.4% for GAA leaders and 53.7% for save percentage leaders.
Tuesday’s Matchups: What to Watch
Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils
7 p.m., Prudential Center, Watch live on ESPN+, Hulu, and Disney+
- Devils (-1.5, +170), -135 money line
- Maple Leafs (+1.5, -215), +115 money line
- Total 6.5: (Over +105, Under -125)
Both teams are coming off losses, with the Leafs dropping two straight and the Devils suffering a shutout defeat. The Leafs have been rotating their goaltenders evenly, so Stolarz is likely to start if the pattern holds. Markstrom is expected in net for the Devils after Jake Allen played in Sunday’s loss to the Avalanche.
While the 6.5 total might tempt under bettors, the offensive firepower on both teams’ power plays makes this a tricky call. A safer bet might be a special prop: Both Teams To Score 3-plus Goals (+130). This offers better odds than the over and aligns with the likelihood of a high-scoring game.
Minnesota Wild at Utah Hockey Club
9:30 p.m., Delta Center, Watch live on ESPN+, Hulu, and Disney+
- Wild (-1.5, +200), -120 money line
- Utah HC (+1.5, -275), +100 money line
- Total 5.5: (Over -120, Under +100)
Gustavsson hasn’t lost since Nov. 25, though the Wild’s recent opponents haven’t been particularly challenging. Utah has also been strong, with their only recent regulation loss coming against the Dallas Stars. The Wild have been solid as road favorites, boasting a 7-4 record against the spread and 8-3 on the moneyline.
The 5.5 total reflects the quality of goaltending expected in this matchup. A potential parlay could include Wild moneyline (-120) and Under 5.5 total goals (-105) for combined odds of +226. Feeling bold? Try Wild -1.5 game spread (+200) with a custom Under 4.5 total goals (+240) for a +774 payout, though this requires a very specific outcome.
Betting Trends to Note
Through 444 games this season, 238 have gone under (53.6%), while 206 have gone over (46.4%). For games with a 6.5 total, 160 have gone under (57.8%), and 117 have gone over (42.2%). For 5.5 totals, 78 have gone under (46.7%), and 89 have gone over (53.3%).
- Betting $1 on every 6.5 under would net $18.62.
- Betting $1 on every 6.5 over would lose -$45.25.
- Betting $1 on every 5.5 under would lose -$8.59.
- Betting $1 on every 5.5 over would lose -$7.28.
The 6.5 under bet is the only strategy currently in the black, thanks to favorable odds hitting consistently. Keep an eye on matchups featuring elite goaltenders, as they often present opportunities for savvy bettors.
Originally Written by: Sean Allen
