Tracking the NFL Playoff Picture: Updates for Chances to Clinch Open Spots, Division Titles
As we dive into the final stretch of the NFL season, the excitement is palpable. With just two weeks left, the playoff picture is starting to take shape, but there are still plenty of twists and turns to come. ESPN Analytics’ live NFL playoff chances are here to guide us through the chaos. By combining current in-game win probabilities with the Football Power Index (FPI) season projections, we get a clear view of each team’s postseason likelihood as we navigate through the Week 17 and Week 18 slates. The projected final standings are updated regularly, and we’re also keeping an eye on some tight postseason races and the 2025 draft order for non-playoff teams. Let’s see how things stack up in both conferences throughout every game.
Current NFC Playoff Picture
The NFC playoff picture is as thrilling as ever. With several teams vying for those coveted spots, every game counts. The race is on, and fans are on the edge of their seats, waiting to see which teams will rise to the occasion and which will fall short. The stakes are high, and the competition is fierce.
Current AFC Playoff Picture
Over in the AFC, the drama is just as intense. The Chargers have already punched their ticket to the playoffs with a win over the Patriots. However, the Broncos missed their chance to join them after falling to the Bengals. The final spot is still up for grabs, and the tension is mounting.
Who Will Land the Final AFC Wild-Card Spot?
The Chiefs, Bills, and Texans have clinched their respective divisions, while the Ravens, Steelers, and Chargers are also in the playoff field. Baltimore is the heavy favorite to win the AFC North, which means Pittsburgh likely will be a wild-card team. There’s just one postseason spot up for grabs, with three teams — the Broncos, Bengals, and Dolphins — vying for it. Denver is still the favorite to be the 7-seed, though. The Colts were eliminated Sunday in losing to the Giants, but the Dolphins beat the Browns to stay alive.
Who Will Earn the NFC’s No. 1 Seed?
Two teams are still in play for the top seed in the NFC, which means home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and a bye in the wild-card round. The Lions — who play the 49ers on Monday (8:15 p.m. ET) — are the favorites, but this will come down to Week 18. The Lions will face the Vikings (who beat the Packers Sunday), and the winner of that game takes the NFC North and No. 1 seed.
The Eagles were looming as the third team in the mix after defeating the Cowboys on Sunday to win the NFC East, but the Vikings’ win eliminated them from the top-seed race.
Who Will Win the NFC South?
The NFC South is another division that is still up for grabs. With teams battling it out for the top spot, every game is crucial. The competition is fierce, and the stakes are high as teams fight for their playoff lives.
Projected 2025 NFL Draft Order
While 14 teams will ultimately make the playoffs, 18 others start their offseasons at the conclusion of Week 18. Those franchises will soon be making personnel decisions, evaluating their coaching staffs, working the trade market, and navigating the free agent pool. But the 2025 NFL draft also lies ahead (April 24 in Green Bay, Wisconsin), and each team will have the chance to land a top prospect in Round 1.
- Who is set up to take Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders or Travis Hunter?
- What about Miami’s Cam Ward and Penn State’s Abdul Carter?
Here is how the draft order projects at this moment for the league’s bottom 18 teams, along with their chances to pick at No. 1 and in the top five. The Patriots are now the favorites to finish with the first selection.
Methodology
Playoff probabilities are updated as the games progress, based on ESPN Analytics’ live win probabilities and its NFL Football Power Index (FPI) projections. Live in-game win probabilities measure multiple factors, including score, time remaining, field position, down-and-distance, team opponent strength, and game site. These live probabilities are used by the FPI’s projections, which simulate the season based on each team’s strength, schedule, and tiebreaking rules. The result is a live representation of a team’s various playoff, division, and seeding chances, along with an updated projection of the final standings. Those simulations also project the top 18 picks in the 2025 draft.
Edited by Ben Arledge and Dane Beavers.
Produced by ESPN Creative Studio: Dominique DeMoe, Jarret Gabel, Luke Knox, Munehito Sawada, Garrett Siegel, and Rachel Weiss.
Illustrations by Josue Evilla. ESPN Analytics: Henry Gargiulo, Chris Harden, and Matt Morris.
Originally Written by: ESPN.com
