Simulating NFL Free Agency: Predicting the Future for Top Players

Simulating NFL Free Agency: Predicting the Future for Top Players

As the NFL free agency period looms, excitement is building among fans and teams alike. The legal negotiating window is set to open on Tuesday, with the official start of the 2025 free agency just two days later. To get a sense of how this year’s free agency might unfold, we turned to the experts at NFL Nation, a group of 32 team-specific reporters who cover the NFL year-round for ESPN. Established in 2013, NFL Nation provides comprehensive coverage across ESPN.com, television shows, radio, ESPN+, and social media platforms.

In this simulation, we focused on six key players, including four defensive stars and two from the Philadelphia Eagles, who could be available. Our NFL Nation reporters took on the role of general managers for the teams they cover, making contract offers for these key free agents while staying within their team’s salary cap constraints and realistic outcomes. The goal wasn’t to “win” but to accurately reflect how a team might approach negotiations. For instance, the cap-strapped New Orleans Saints didn’t make any offers, while the New England Patriots, with money to spend, were more aggressive.

Once all the offers were in, senior NFL national reporter Dan Graziano played the role of player representative, evaluating the proposals and “signing” each of the stars to a new deal. So, who is headed to a new team, and who re-signed for another go with their current franchise? Let’s dive into the predictions for this offseason’s free agency for Sam Darnold, Ronnie Stanley, Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, D.J. Reed, and Jevon Holland.

Sam Darnold, QB

2024 team: Minnesota Vikings
Free agency ranking: No. 4

2024 stats: 4,319 passing yards, 35 TD passes, 12 INTs

• Raiders’ offer: Three years, $125 million ($55 million guaranteed)
• Titans’ offer: Three years, $120 million ($85 million guaranteed)

New Raiders coach Pete Carroll is eager to win immediately, and landing a franchise quarterback like Darnold is key. The Raiders, who were 30th in QBR last season, are ready to make a big offer. Meanwhile, the Titans’ offer includes a higher guarantee and an opt-out option after two years, making it an attractive choice for Darnold.

The decision: Darnold agrees on a new deal with the … Titans

The higher guarantee from the Titans swayed Darnold’s decision. Although there is a concern that the Titans might draft a quarterback, the Raiders pose the same risk. The Titans’ offer allows Darnold to hit free agency again at 29 or 30, making it the more appealing choice.

Ronnie Stanley, OT

2024 team: Baltimore Ravens
Free agency ranking: No. 1

2024 stats: 17 starts, 92.3% pass block win rate

• Patriots’ offer: Four years, $100 million ($65 million guaranteed)
• Ravens’ offer: Three years, $60 million ($43 million guaranteed)

The Patriots are eager to protect their quarterback’s blind side and are willing to overpay for a proven veteran like Stanley. The Ravens, on the other hand, are optimistic about reaching a deal but face tight cap constraints.

The decision: Stanley agrees on a new deal with the … Patriots

The Patriots’ offer demonstrates their commitment to building their offseason around Stanley, making it an irresistible choice for the elite left tackle.

Josh Sweat, Edge

2024 team: Philadelphia Eagles
Free agency ranking: No. 5

2024 stats: 8 sacks, 33 pressures

• Cardinals’ offer: Three years, $43 million ($21 million guaranteed)
• Commanders’ offer: Three years, $60 million ($40 million guaranteed)
• Packers’ offer: Four years, $72 million ($24 million guaranteed)
• Panthers’ offer: Four years, $78 million ($46.8 million guaranteed)

The Cardinals need a pass rusher, and Sweat’s familiarity with coach Jonathan Gannon makes him an attractive option. The Commanders, Packers, and Panthers also made competitive offers, each with its own appeal.

The decision: Sweat agrees on a new deal with the … Commanders

Washington’s offer, with the highest average annual salary and a strong guarantee, was the most appealing to Sweat, who is eager to return to the Super Bowl.

Milton Williams, DT

2024 team: Philadelphia Eagles
Free agency ranking: No. 6

2024 stats: 5 sacks, 18 pressures

• Broncos’ offer: Three years, $73 million ($40 million guaranteed)
• Patriots’ offer: Four years, $97 million ($55 million guaranteed)
• Vikings’ offer: Four years, $96 million ($75 million guaranteed)

Williams, a standout in the Eagles’ Super Bowl win, is a top target for teams looking to bolster their defensive line. The Broncos, Patriots, and Vikings all made compelling offers.

The decision: Williams agrees on a new deal with the … Vikings

The Vikings’ offer, with a strong guarantee and a fourth year, was the most appealing to Williams, who is eager to join a contender.

D.J. Reed, CB

2024 team: New York Jets
Free agency ranking: No. 2

2024 stats: 64 tackles, 10 pass breakups, 0 INTs

• Giants’ offer: Four years, $72 million ($40 million guaranteed)
• Falcons’ offer: Four years, $56 million ($33.6 million guaranteed)
• Packers’ offer: Four years, $60 million ($16.5 million guaranteed)

The Giants are in desperate need of a No. 1 cornerback, and Reed is the best option on the market. The Falcons and Packers also made offers, but the Giants’ offer was the most competitive.

The decision: Reed agrees on a new deal with the … Giants

The Giants’ offer, with a higher annual salary and guarantee, was the most appealing to Reed, who is eager to stay in New Jersey.

Jevon Holland, S

2024 team: Miami Dolphins
Free agency ranking: No. 9

2024 stats: 62 tackles, 2 pass breakups, 0 INTs

• Colts’ offer: Four years, $64 million ($30 million guaranteed)
• Jets’ offer: Four years, $80 million ($42 million guaranteed)

The Colts and Jets both made offers for Holland, but the Jets’ offer was significantly more competitive, making it an easy choice for the young safety.

The decision: Holland agrees on a new deal with the … Jets

The Jets’ offer, with a higher annual salary and guarantee, was the most appealing to Holland, who is eager to join a new regime in New York.