Simulating NFL Free Agency: Predicting the Future for Top Players
As the NFL free agency period looms, excitement is building among fans and teams alike. The legal negotiating window is set to open on Tuesday, with the official start of the 2025 free agency just two days later. To get a sense of how this offseason might unfold, we turned to the experts at NFL Nation, a group of 32 team-specific reporters who cover the NFL year-round for ESPN. Established in 2013, NFL Nation provides comprehensive coverage across ESPN.com, television shows, radio, ESPN+, and social media platforms.
In this simulation, we focused on six key players, including four defensive stars and two from the Philadelphia Eagles, who could be available. Our NFL Nation reporters took on the role of general managers for the teams they cover, making contract offers for these free agents while staying within their team’s salary cap constraints and realistic expectations. The goal wasn’t to “win” but to accurately reflect how a team might approach negotiations. For instance, the cap-strapped New Orleans Saints didn’t make any offers, while the New England Patriots, with money to spend, were more aggressive.
Once all the offers were in, senior NFL national reporter Dan Graziano played the role of player representative, evaluating the proposals and “signing” each of the stars to a new deal. So, who is headed to a new team, and who re-signed for another go with their current franchise? Let’s dive into the predictions for this offseason’s free agency for Sam Darnold, Ronnie Stanley, Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, D.J. Reed, and Jevon Holland. Zack Baun was originally part of this project, but he signed an extension. You can see offers for Baun at the bottom.
Sam Darnold, QB
2024 team: Minnesota Vikings
Free agency ranking: No. 4
2024 stats: 4,319 passing yards, 35 TD passes, 12 INTs
- Raiders’ offer: Three years, $125 million ($55 million guaranteed)
- Titans’ offer: Three years, $120 million ($85 million guaranteed)
New Raiders coach Pete Carroll is eager to win immediately, and landing a franchise quarterback like Darnold is key. The Raiders, who were 30th in QBR last season, are ready to make a big offer. Meanwhile, the Titans’ offer includes a higher guarantee and an opt-out option after two years, making it an attractive deal for Darnold.
The decision: Darnold agrees on a new deal with the … Titans
The higher guarantee from the Titans swayed Darnold’s decision. Although there is a concern that the Titans might draft a quarterback, the same concern exists with the Raiders. The Titans’ offer provides more money and the opportunity for Darnold to hit free agency again at 29 or 30.
Ronnie Stanley, OT
2024 team: Baltimore Ravens
Free agency ranking: No. 1
2024 stats: 17 starts, 92.3% pass block win rate
- Patriots’ offer: Four years, $100 million ($65 million guaranteed)
- Ravens’ offer: Three years, $60 million ($43 million guaranteed)
The Patriots are eager to protect their quarterback’s blind side and are willing to overpay for a proven veteran like Stanley. The Ravens, on the other hand, are optimistic about re-signing Stanley but need to make a competitive offer within their tight cap space.
The decision: Stanley agrees on a new deal with the … Patriots
The Patriots’ offer is a statement of intent, showing Stanley that they want to build their offseason around him. The contract reflects Stanley’s status as one of the elite left tackles in the league.
Josh Sweat, Edge
2024 team: Philadelphia Eagles
Free agency ranking: No. 5
2024 stats: 8 sacks, 33 pressures
- Cardinals’ offer: Three years, $43 million ($21 million guaranteed)
- Commanders’ offer: Three years, $60 million ($40 million guaranteed)
- Packers’ offer: Four years, $72 million ($24 million guaranteed)
- Panthers’ offer: Four years, $78 million ($46.8 million guaranteed)
The Cardinals need a pass rusher, and Sweat’s experience with coach Jonathan Gannon makes him a perfect fit. The Commanders, Packers, and Panthers also made competitive offers, each with its own appeal.
The decision: Sweat agrees on a new deal with the … Commanders
Washington’s offer has the highest average annual salary, and the guarantee is better than Green Bay’s and close to Carolina’s. The Commanders provide Sweat with a chance to return to the Super Bowl.
Milton Williams, DT
2024 team: Philadelphia Eagles
Free agency ranking: No. 6
2024 stats: 5 sacks, 18 pressures
- Broncos’ offer: Three years, $73 million ($40 million guaranteed)
- Patriots’ offer: Four years, $97 million ($55 million guaranteed)
- Vikings’ offer: Four years, $96 million ($75 million guaranteed)
Williams is a top interior disrupter, and the Broncos, Patriots, and Vikings are all eager to add him to their rosters. Each team offers a unique opportunity for Williams to make an impact.
The decision: Williams agrees on a new deal with the … Vikings
The Vikings’ offer includes a fourth year and a strong guarantee, making it the most appealing option for Williams. The team is already a contender, giving Williams a chance to return to the Super Bowl soon.
D.J. Reed, CB
2024 team: New York Jets
Free agency ranking: No. 2
2024 stats: 64 tackles, 10 pass breakups, 0 INTs
- Giants’ offer: Four years, $72 million ($40 million guaranteed)
- Falcons’ offer: Four years, $56 million ($33.6 million guaranteed)
- Packers’ offer: Four years, $60 million ($16.5 million guaranteed)
The Giants are in desperate need of a No. 1 cornerback, and Reed fits the bill. The Falcons and Packers also made offers, but the Giants’ proposal stands out.
The decision: Reed agrees on a new deal with the … Giants
The Giants’ offer is significantly better than the others, and Reed gets to stay in New Jersey, making it an easy decision.
Jevon Holland, S
2024 team: Miami Dolphins
Free agency ranking: No. 9
2024 stats: 62 tackles, 2 pass breakups, 0 INTs
- Colts’ offer: Four years, $64 million ($30 million guaranteed)
- Jets’ offer: Four years, $80 million ($42 million guaranteed)
The Colts and Jets both have a need at safety, but the Jets’ offer is significantly more lucrative, making it the clear choice for Holland.
The decision: Holland agrees on a new deal with the … Jets
The Jets’ offer is far superior, with $4 million more per year and $12 million more in guarantees, making it an easy decision for Holland.
As the free agency period approaches, these predictions provide a glimpse into the potential moves and decisions that could shape the upcoming NFL season. Stay tuned for more updates and analysis as the offseason unfolds.
Originally Written by: NFL Nation,Dan Graziano
