Simulating NFL Free Agency: Predicting the Future for Top Players
As the NFL free agency period looms, excitement is building among fans and teams alike. The legal negotiating window is set to open on Tuesday, with the official start of the 2025 free agency just two days later. To get a sense of how this offseason might unfold, we decided to simulate the market for six key players, including four defensive stars and two Eagles who could be available. This exercise involved our NFL Nation reporters acting as general managers for the teams they cover, making contract offers while staying within salary cap constraints and realistic outcomes.
The goal wasn’t to “win” but to accurately reflect how a team might approach negotiations. For instance, the cap-strapped Saints didn’t make any offers, while the Patriots, with money to spend, were more aggressive. Once all the offers were in, national NFL reporter Dan Graziano played the role of player representative, evaluating the proposals and “signing” each of the stars to a new deal.
So, who is headed to a new team, and who re-signed for another go with their current franchise? Who earned the big bucks? Let’s dive into this offseason’s free agency predictions for Sam Darnold, Ronnie Stanley, Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, D.J. Reed, and Jevon Holland. Here are some hypothetical pitches and landing spots.
Sam Darnold, QB
2024 team: Minnesota Vikings
Free agency ranking: No. 4
2024 stats: 4,319 passing yards, 35 TD passes, 12 INTs
Raiders’ offer: Three years, $125 million ($55 million guaranteed)
New Raiders coach Pete Carroll is eager to win immediately, and landing a franchise quarterback is key. With a weaker QB draft class this year, Las Vegas might aggressively pursue Darnold, offering a substantial deal after his career season. At 27, Darnold’s skills align well with coordinator Chip Kelly’s offense. The Raiders, who ranked 30th in QBR last season, need an immediate impact. — Ryan McFadden
Titans’ offer: Three years, $120 million ($85 million guaranteed)
This offer gives Darnold a $40 million yearly average and a chance to be the starter for three years. He could reenter free agency at 30 for another big contract. The Titans can use more funds and the draft to support Darnold as their long-term solution. An opt-out option after two years is included. — Turron Davenport
The decision: Darnold agrees on a new deal with the … Titans
The higher guarantee sways Darnold. While there’s concern the Titans might draft another QB, the Raiders pose the same risk. The Titans offer more money, and Darnold can hit free agency again at 29 or 30. — Graziano
Ronnie Stanley, OT
2024 team: Baltimore Ravens
Free agency ranking: No. 1
2024 stats: 17 starts, 92.3% pass block win rate
Patriots’ offer: Four years, $100 million ($65 million guaranteed)
Left tackle is a top need for the Patriots. Protecting Drake Maye’s blind side with a proven veteran is crucial. Bringing in a leader with big-game experience is worth the investment. The $25 million yearly average ties Stanley with Laremy Tunsil for third highest at the position. With $130 million in cap space, the Patriots are ready to spend. — Mike Reiss
Ravens’ offer: Three years, $60 million ($43 million guaranteed)
Ravens GM Eric DeCosta is optimistic about re-signing Stanley. The offer is competitive, averaging $20 million per season, placing Stanley among the top 10 highest-paid left tackles. The first-year cap hit is a team-friendly $12 million. — Jamison Hensley
The decision: Stanley agrees on a new deal with the … Patriots
This deal shows the Patriots’ commitment to building their offseason around Stanley. He considers himself an elite left tackle, and this contract reflects that. — Graziano
Josh Sweat, Edge
2024 team: Philadelphia Eagles
Free agency ranking: No. 5
2024 stats: 8 sacks, 33 pressures
Cardinals’ offer: Three years, $43 million ($21 million guaranteed)
The Cardinals need pass-rushing help, ranking 28th in pass rush win rate. Sweat, 28, would bring credibility to Arizona’s pass rush. He thrived under Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon, his former defensive coordinator. The offer includes a $12 million signing bonus and sack incentives. — Josh Weinfuss
Commanders’ offer: Three years, $60 million ($40 million guaranteed)
Washington needs a defensive end skilled in rushing the passer and setting the edge. Sweat’s length and quick get-off make him an appealing option. — John Keim
Packers’ offer: Four years, $72 million ($24 million guaranteed)
The Packers want to pressure quarterbacks without blitzing. Sweat’s addition would help achieve that goal. The guaranteed money is in a signing bonus, with roster bonuses each year. — Rob Demovsky
Panthers’ offer: Four years, $78 million ($46.8 million guaranteed)
The Panthers aim to rebuild their defensive front. Sweat, with 33 sacks over three seasons, fits their needs. He played in a similar scheme under Vic Fangio in Philly. — David Newton
The decision: Sweat agrees on a new deal with the … Commanders
Washington’s offer has the highest average annual salary. The guarantee is better than Green Bay’s and close to Carolina’s. Sweat just played in the Super Bowl, and Washington offers a chance to return. — Graziano
Milton Williams, DT
2024 team: Philadelphia Eagles
Free agency ranking: No. 6
2024 stats: 5 sacks, 18 pressures
Broncos’ offer: Three years, $73 million ($40 million guaranteed)
Williams, 26, is a top interior disruptor. With Broncos DT D.J. Jones poised for free agency, Williams fits well in Vance Joseph’s defense. The deal allows him to hit the market again before 30. — Jeff Legwold
Patriots’ offer: Four years, $97 million ($55 million guaranteed)
The Patriots want to build strong lines on both sides of the ball. Pursuing Stanley and Williams would demonstrate that commitment. — Mike Reiss
Vikings’ offer: Four years, $96 million ($75 million guaranteed)
The Vikings seek interior defensive line help. They have 91 sacks over two seasons, but only nine from defensive tackles. — Kevin Seifert
The decision: Williams agrees on a new deal with the … Vikings
It was between Minnesota and Denver. The fourth year and stronger guarantee favor the Vikings. They won 14 games last season and offer Williams a chance to return to the Super Bowl. — Graziano
D.J. Reed, CB
2024 team: New York Jets
Free agency ranking: No. 2
2024 stats: 64 tackles, 10 pass breakups, 0 INTs
Giants’ offer: Four years, $72 million ($40 million guaranteed)
The Giants need a No. 1 cornerback, and Reed is the best option. He can cover and tackle, and he’s familiar with the New York market. The Giants will pay him as a shutdown corner. — Jordan Raanan
Falcons’ offer: Four years, $56 million ($33.6 million guaranteed)
Reed thrived under Jets defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, now with the Falcons. Atlanta needs an elite corner opposite A.J. Terrell. However, the Falcons must shed salary to make this deal. — Marc Raimondi
Packers’ offer: Four years, $60 million ($16.5 million guaranteed)
The Packers may move on from Jaire Alexander, making cornerback a top need. Reed would play alongside veteran safety Xavier McKinney. The guaranteed money is a signing bonus. — Rob Demovsky
The decision: Reed agrees on a new deal with the … Giants
The Packers were tempting, but the Giants’ offer is $3 million more per year. Reed also gets to stay in New Jersey. — Graziano
Jevon Holland, S
2024 team: Miami Dolphins
Free agency ranking: No. 9
2024 stats: 62 tackles, 2 pass breakups, 0 INTs
Colts’ offer: Four years, $64 million ($30 million guaranteed)
The Colts need a safety and recently hired defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. This signing would maximize impact. The deal includes a $10 million signing bonus and guarantees the first-year base salary. — Stephen Holder
Jets’ offer: Four years, $80 million ($42 million guaranteed)
The Jets are desperate for safeties, and Holland is young enough to be a foundational player. He made a memorable play against the Jets in 2023. The deal includes a $20 million signing bonus and guarantees the first two years’ base salaries. — Rich Cimini
The decision: Holland agrees on a new deal with the … Jets
The Jets’ offer is significantly better, with $4 million more per year and $12 million more in guarantees. — Graziano
Editor’s note: Baun signed an extension on Wednesday and is no longer a free agent.
Zack Baun, LB
2024 team: Philadelphia Eagles
2024 stats: 150 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT
Eagles’ offer: Three years, $36 million ($14 million guaranteed)
Baun thrived as a middle linebacker under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. His versatility and instincts are crucial to the Eagles’ defense. — Tim McManus
Falcons’ offer: Three years, $31.3 million ($17.6 million guaranteed)
Inside linebacker isn’t the Falcons’ top priority, but Baun’s versatility fits their needs. The deal includes a $5 million signing bonus and a potential opt-out after 2027. — Marc Raimondi
The decision: Baun agrees on a new deal with the … Eagles
Philadelphia offers more money, and Baun is a local favorite and Super Bowl champ. He knows he can excel in Fangio’s system and loves the team and city. — Graziano
Originally Written by: NFL Nation,Dan Graziano
