2024 NFL Playoffs: A Deep Dive into the Teams, Players, and Matchups
As the calendar flips to January, the excitement of the 2024 NFL playoffs is palpable. The Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions have earned the coveted No. 1 seeds in the AFC and NFC, respectively, granting them first-round byes. This leaves the remaining 12 teams to battle it out in the upcoming wild-card round, which promises to be a thrilling three-day event. The games are spread across Saturday, Sunday, and a Monday night showdown, with ESPN/ABC broadcasting the final game of the round.
As we gear up for the wild-card weekend, several questions loom large. Which teams are poised for a deep playoff run? Which squads have vulnerabilities that could be exposed? And which players are likely to be the game-changers on the road to Super Bowl LIX on February 9 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans?
Our NFL Nation team reporters have meticulously analyzed each of the 14 playoff teams, highlighting their strengths and weaknesses. Analytics writer Seth Walder has pinpointed a key stat for each team, while Ben Solak has provided a heat check rating (from 1 to 10) for each squad. Additionally, we’ve assessed each team’s updated chances of winning it all using ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), with odds provided by ESPN BET.
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
The Chiefs, with odds of +350 to win the Super Bowl, have a 27.9% FPI chance to make it to the big game. As the top seed in the AFC, they will face the lowest-seeded wild-card team remaining in the divisional round. The Chiefs have a strong track record against potential opponents, boasting a 5-1 record against the Texans, Chargers, Steelers, and Broncos. Patrick Mahomes and his revitalized offense, featuring Hollywood Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy, are reasons for optimism. However, pass protection remains a concern, with Mahomes sacked 36 times this season. Chris Jones, with 62 pass rush wins, is a defensive force to watch. Solak gives the Chiefs a heat check rating of 10, highlighting their strong position entering the playoffs.
- Buffalo Bills (13-4)
The Bills, with +475 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 67.6% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 21.3% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They will host the Broncos in their first playoff game. Josh Allen, a leading MVP candidate, is the Bills’ beacon of hope, having led the team to 12 games with 30 or more points. However, their third-down defense is a concern, ranking fourth-highest in conversion percentage allowed. Allen’s ability to avoid mistakes is a key stat, with the lowest sack rate and fourth-lowest interception rate among quarterbacks. Solak rates the Bills’ heat check at 8, reflecting their strong finish to the regular season.
- Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
The Ravens, with +550 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 72.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 27.1% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Steelers in a wild-card matchup. The Ravens’ recent form is promising, with a four-game winning streak and a defense allowing a league-low 15.4 points per game. However, Lamar Jackson’s playoff record is a concern, with a 2-4 postseason record. The Ravens’ defensive improvement, particularly with Kyle Hamilton’s role, is a key stat. Solak gives the Ravens a heat check rating of 9, acknowledging their strong finish to the season.
- Houston Texans (10-7)
The Texans, with +6000 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 47.6% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 6.1% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They host the Chargers in the wild-card round. The Texans’ defense is their strength, with a relentless pass rush and strong secondary play. However, offensive inconsistency is a concern, with the team ranking 18th in scoring. The Texans’ offensive struggles are highlighted by their 24th rank in EPA per play since Week 10. Solak rates the Texans’ heat check at 5, noting their potential with C.J. Stroud and a strong pass rush.
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
The Chargers, with +2500 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 52.4% FPI chance to make the divisional round and an 8.8% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Texans in the wild-card round. Jim Harbaugh’s coaching success is a reason for hope, but offensive inconsistency, particularly in the second half, is a concern. The Chargers’ defense ranks in the top six in EPA allowed per designed run play and per dropback. Solak gives the Chargers a heat check rating of 5, reflecting mixed vibes due to their defensive decline.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
The Steelers, with +7500 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 27.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 4.1% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Ravens in the wild-card round. Russell Wilson’s presence is a reason for hope, but defensive lapses are a concern. The Steelers’ reliance on George Pickens is a key stat, with a significant drop in EPA per dropback without him. Solak rates the Steelers’ heat check at 1, highlighting their struggles entering the postseason.
- Denver Broncos (10-7)
The Broncos, with +6000 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 32.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 4.7% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Bills in the wild-card round. The Broncos’ defense is a strength, but their offense’s high percentage of three-and-outs is a concern. The Broncos’ reliance on man coverage and Pat Surtain II’s performance are key stats. Solak gives the Broncos a heat check rating of 7, noting their upward trajectory and strong defense.
NFC
- Detroit Lions (15-2)
The Lions, with +450 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 41.4% FPI chance to make it to the big game. As the NFC’s top seed, they will host the lowest-seeded wild-card winner in the divisional round. The Lions’ offense, with multiple 1,000-yard performers, is a reason for hope. However, an injury-riddled defense is a concern. The Lions’ reliance on blitzing is a key stat, with significant splits in performance with and without the blitz. Solak rates the Lions’ heat check at 8, acknowledging their strong offensive performance.
- Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
The Eagles, with +650 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 50.3% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 14.6% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Packers in the wild-card round. The Eagles’ elite personnel, including Saquon Barkley and a strong defense, is a reason for hope. However, slow starts are a concern. The Eagles’ dominance in the ground game is a key stat. Solak gives the Eagles a heat check rating of 8, noting their strong roster and potential.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
The Buccaneers, with +3000 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 58.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and an 11.1% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Commanders in the wild-card round. The Bucs’ versatile offense, led by Baker Mayfield, is a reason for hope. However, defensive struggles are a concern. The Bucs’ YAC over expectation is a key stat. Solak rates the Buccaneers’ heat check at 2, highlighting their struggles entering the playoffs.
- Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
The Rams, with +3500 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 45.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 5.7% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Vikings in the wild-card round. The Rams’ defensive improvement is a reason for hope, but offensive inconsistency is a concern. Puka Nacua’s target rate is a key stat. Solak gives the Rams a heat check rating of 4, noting their defensive performances but offensive struggles.
- Minnesota Vikings (14-3)
The Vikings, with +800 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 54.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 9.6% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Rams in the wild-card round. The Vikings’ balance on offense and defense is a reason for hope, but their reliance on close games is a concern. Sam Darnold’s completion percentage over expectation is a key stat. Solak rates the Vikings’ heat check at 7, acknowledging their strong performance but recent loss to the Lions.
- Washington Commanders (12-5)
The Commanders, with +3000 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 41.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 5.3% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Buccaneers in the wild-card round. Jayden Daniels’ performance is a reason for hope, but the run defense is a concern. Daniels’ rushing production is a key stat. Solak gives the Commanders a heat check rating of 3, noting their struggles in the second half of the season.
- Green Bay Packers (11-6)
The Packers, with +1600 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 49.7% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 12.2% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Eagles in the wild-card round. The Packers’ strong running game and ability to force turnovers are reasons for hope, but their record against NFC playoff teams is a concern. Jordan Love’s QBR is a key stat. Solak rates the Packers’ heat check at 2, highlighting their injury concerns entering the playoffs.
Originally Written by: NFL Nation,Ben Solak,Seth Walder
