Our guide to the NFL playoffs: Reasons for hope — and concern — for all 14 teams

2024 NFL Playoffs: A Deep Dive into the Teams, Players, and Matchups

The 2024 NFL playoffs are upon us, and the excitement is palpable as the No. 1 seeds in each conference, the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC and the Detroit Lions in the NFC, have earned their well-deserved first-round byes. This leaves the remaining 12 teams to battle it out in the wild-card round, which promises to be a thrilling three-day event. The action kicks off with two games on Saturday, followed by three on Sunday, and culminates with a Monday night showdown broadcasted by ESPN/ABC.

As we gear up for the playoffs, the burning questions on everyone’s mind are: Which teams are poised for deep playoff runs? Which squads have vulnerabilities that could be exposed during the wild-card weekend? And which players are likely to be the game-changers on the road to Super Bowl LIX?

Let’s break down what each of the 14 playoff teams needs to do to reach the grand stage at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans on February 9. Our NFL Nation team reporters have meticulously analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of each franchise, while analytics writer Seth Walder has pinpointed a crucial stat for each team. Ben Solak has also provided a heat check rating (on a scale of 1 to 10) for each playoff contender. Additionally, we’ve assessed all 14 teams’ updated chances to win it all using ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). (Odds are via ESPN BET.)

AFC

• Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +350
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 27.9%

First game outlook: The Chiefs, securing the AFC’s top seed for the second time in three seasons, will face the lowest-seeded wild-card team remaining in the divisional round. They boast a 5-1 record against potential opponents, having swept the Chargers, and defeated both Houston and Pittsburgh in a dominant stretch. The Chiefs split their games with the Broncos. Patrick Mahomes and his squad are ready to capitalize on their first-round bye.

Reason for hope: A revitalized offense. The return of receiver Hollywood Brown, the emergence of rookie wideout Xavier Worthy, and All-Pro guard Joe Thuney’s transition to left tackle have rejuvenated the Chiefs’ offense. Mahomes expressed confidence, stating, “We’ve gotten better and better before Hollywood got here. Xavier started playing better, being more confident … it kind of sets everybody perfectly in their roles.”

Reason for concern: Pass protection remains a concern, as Mahomes was sacked 36 times this season, the most in his career. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor’s 17 penalties have also been a hurdle for the Chiefs.

Stat to know: Chris Jones recorded 62 pass rush wins this season, the most by a defensive tackle. Despite a quiet season on the sack front, Jones remains a formidable force on the defensive line.

Heat check rating: 10. With a first-round bye, home-field advantage, and a healthy roster, the Chiefs are in prime position to make a deep playoff run.

• Buffalo Bills (13-4)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +475
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 67.6%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 21.3%

First game outlook: The Bills will host the No. 7-seeded Broncos, a team they haven’t faced this season. Their last encounter resulted in a narrow 24-22 loss, highlighting the need for the Bills to be on their A-game.

Reason for hope: Quarterback Josh Allen, a leading MVP candidate, has been instrumental in the Bills’ success. His ability to lead the offense to high-scoring games and minimize turnovers has been crucial.

Reason for concern: The Bills’ third-down defense has been inconsistent, allowing a high conversion rate. They must tighten up to succeed against strong playoff offenses.

Stat to know: Allen’s low sack, interception, and fumble rates underscore his efficiency and decision-making prowess, making him a key asset for the Bills.

Heat check rating: 8. With a strong finish to the regular season, the Bills are well-positioned for a successful playoff run.

• Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +550
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 72.5%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 27.1%

First game outlook: The Ravens will face the Steelers in a rubber match, having split their regular-season meetings. Baltimore’s recent form gives them an edge.

Reason for hope: The Ravens have been in top form, winning their last four games with a dominant defense and a high-scoring offense led by Lamar Jackson.

Reason for concern: Jackson’s playoff track record is a concern, with a 2-4 postseason record and struggles in high-pressure games.

Stat to know: The Ravens’ defensive improvement in the latter half of the season has been significant, with Kyle Hamilton’s role as a safety being a key factor.

Heat check rating: 9. The Ravens are peaking at the right time, making them a formidable playoff contender.

• Houston Texans (10-7)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +6000
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 47.6%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 6.1%

First game outlook: The Texans will host the Chargers, marking their eighth wild-card weekend game since 2011. Houston’s strong home record in these games is a positive sign.

Reason for hope: The Texans’ defense has been a standout, with a strong pass rush and a secondary capable of making big plays.

Reason for concern: Offensive inconsistency has plagued the Texans, with struggles in scoring and protecting quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Stat to know: The Texans’ offensive struggles are evident in their low EPA per play ranking, highlighting the need for improvement.

Heat check rating: 5. While the Texans have had a challenging season, their defense gives them a fighting chance in the playoffs.

• Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +2500
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 52.4%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 8.8%

First game outlook: The Chargers will face the Texans, aiming to overcome their playoff struggles and capitalize on their strong defense.

Reason for hope: Jim Harbaugh’s coaching experience and the Chargers’ defensive prowess provide a solid foundation for playoff success.

Reason for concern: Offensive inconsistency, particularly in the second half of games, could be a stumbling block for the Chargers.

Stat to know: The Chargers’ defensive success is attributed to their strong secondary, despite a lackluster pass rush.

Heat check rating: 5. The Chargers have potential, but their offensive struggles need to be addressed for a deep playoff run.

• Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +7500
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 27.5%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 4.1%

First game outlook: The Steelers will face the Ravens, hoping to break their playoff losing streak and capitalize on their strong defense.

Reason for hope: Russell Wilson’s presence has revitalized the Steelers’ offense, providing a much-needed spark.

Reason for concern: Defensive lapses and communication issues have been a concern, impacting the Steelers’ performance.

Stat to know: George Pickens’ impact on the Steelers’ offense is significant, with his presence enabling downfield throws.

Heat check rating: 1. The Steelers face an uphill battle, with recent struggles and injuries posing challenges.

• Denver Broncos (10-7)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +6000
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 32.5%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 4.7%

First game outlook: The Broncos will face the Bills, marking their first playoff appearance since winning Super Bowl 50. Their strong defense will be key to their success.

Reason for hope: The Broncos’ defense has been a standout, with a strong pass rush and a secondary capable of making big plays.

Reason for concern: Offensive struggles, particularly in sustaining drives, have been a concern for the Broncos.

Stat to know: The Broncos’ reliance on man coverage and Pat Surtain II’s standout performance have been key to their defensive success.

Heat check rating: 7. The Broncos have shown promise, but their offensive struggles need to be addressed for a deep playoff run.

NFC

• Detroit Lions (15-2)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +450
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 41.4%

First game outlook: The Lions, securing the NFC’s top seed for the first time in franchise history, will face the lowest-seeded wild-card winner. Their strong record against potential opponents bodes well for their playoff prospects.

Reason for hope: The Lions’ offense has been a powerhouse, with a variety of options and standout performances from key players.

Reason for concern: Injuries on defense have been a concern, impacting the Lions’ ability to maintain their dominance.

Stat to know: The Lions’ reliance on blitzing has been a key strategy, compensating for their lack of pass rush without Aidan Hutchinson.

Heat check rating: 8. The Lions are in a strong position, but their defensive concerns need to be addressed for a successful playoff run.

• Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +650
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 50.3%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 14.6%

First game outlook: The Eagles will face the Packers, aiming to build on their strong regular season and capitalize on their elite roster.

Reason for hope: The Eagles boast a talented and physical roster, with standout performances from key players on both sides of the ball.

Reason for concern: Slow starts have been a concern, with the Eagles needing to improve their first-quarter performance.

Stat to know: The Eagles’ dominance in the ground game on both sides of the ball has been a key factor in their success.

Heat check rating: 8. The Eagles are in a strong position, but their slow starts need to be addressed for a successful playoff run.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +3000
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 58.5%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 11.1%

First game outlook: The Buccaneers will face the Commanders, aiming to build on their strong offensive performances and overcome their defensive struggles.

Reason for hope: The Buccaneers’ versatile and high-powered offense has been a standout, with strong performances from key players.

Reason for concern: Defensive struggles, particularly in the secondary, have been a concern for the Buccaneers.

Stat to know: The Buccaneers’ success in generating yards after the catch has been a key factor in their offensive success.

Heat check rating: 2. The Buccaneers face challenges, with their defensive struggles posing a significant hurdle.

• Los Angeles Rams (10-7)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +3500
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 45.5%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 5.7%

First game outlook: The Rams will face the Vikings, aiming to build on their defensive improvements and overcome their offensive inconsistencies.

Reason for hope: The Rams’ defensive improvements have been a standout, with strong performances from key players.

Reason for concern: Offensive inconsistencies, particularly in the first quarter, have been a concern for the Rams.

Stat to know: Puka Nacua’s high target rate has been a key factor in the Rams’ offensive success.

Heat check rating: 4. The Rams face challenges, with their offensive inconsistencies posing a significant hurdle.

• Minnesota Vikings (14-3)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +800
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 54.5%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 9.6%

First game outlook: The Vikings will face the Rams, aiming to build on their balanced performances and overcome their challenges in one-score games.

Reason for hope: The Vikings’ balance on both sides of the ball has been a standout, with strong performances from key players.

Reason for concern: The Vikings’ reliance on close games and their kicker’s recent struggles pose challenges.

Stat to know: Sam Darnold’s improved completion percentage has been a key factor in the Vikings’ offensive success.

Heat check rating: 7. The Vikings are in a strong position, but their challenges in close games need to be addressed for a successful playoff run.

• Washington Commanders (12-5)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +3000
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 41.5%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 5.3%

First game outlook: The Commanders will face the Buccaneers, aiming to build on their strong performances and overcome their defensive struggles.

Reason for hope: Quarterback Jayden Daniels has been a standout, providing a spark for the Commanders’ offense.

Reason for concern: The Commanders’ run defense has been a concern, impacting their ability to contain opposing offenses.

Stat to know: Daniels’ rushing production has been a key factor in the Commanders’ offensive success.

Heat check rating: 3. The Commanders face challenges, with their defensive struggles posing a significant hurdle.

• Green Bay Packers (11-6)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +1600
FPI chance to make the divisional round: 49.7%
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 12.2%

First game outlook: The Packers will face the Eagles, aiming to build on their strong performances and overcome their challenges against top NFC teams.

Reason for hope: The Packers’ strong running game and ability to force turnovers have been key factors in their success.

Reason for concern: The Packers’ struggles against top NFC teams pose a significant challenge.

Stat to know: Jordan Love’s high QBR has been a key factor in the Packers’ offensive success.

Heat check rating: 2. The Packers face challenges, with their struggles against top teams posing a significant hurdle.