2024 NFL Playoffs: A Deep Dive into the Teams, Players, and Matchups
As the calendar flips to January, the excitement of the 2024 NFL playoffs is palpable. The No. 1 seeds in each conference, the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC and the Detroit Lions in the NFC, have earned their coveted first-round byes. This leaves the remaining 12 teams to battle it out in the upcoming wild-card round, which promises to be a thrilling three-day event. The games are scheduled across Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, with the final showdown being broadcast by ESPN/ABC.
As we gear up for the wild-card weekend, several questions loom large. Which teams are poised for a deep playoff run? Which squads have vulnerabilities that could be exposed in their matchups? And which players are likely to be the game-changers on the road to Super Bowl LIX on February 9 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans?
Our NFL Nation team reporters have meticulously analyzed each of the 14 playoff teams, highlighting their strengths and weaknesses. Analytics writer Seth Walder has pinpointed a key stat for each team, while Ben Solak has provided a heat check rating (from 1 to 10) for each squad. Additionally, we’ve assessed all 14 teams’ updated chances to win it all using ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), with odds provided by ESPN BET.
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
The Chiefs, with odds of +350 to win the Super Bowl, have a 27.9% FPI chance to make it to the big game. As the top seed in the AFC, they will face the lowest-seeded wild-card team remaining in the divisional round. The Chiefs have a strong record against potential opponents, boasting a 5-1 record against the Texans, Chargers, Steelers, and Broncos. Their revitalized offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, is a reason for hope, while pass protection remains a concern. Chris Jones’ 62 pass rush wins this season highlight the defensive prowess that could be pivotal in the playoffs. Solak’s heat check rating for the Chiefs is a perfect 10.
- Buffalo Bills (13-4)
The Bills, with +475 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 67.6% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 21.3% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They will host the Broncos in their first playoff game. Josh Allen’s MVP-caliber season is a beacon of hope, but the defense’s struggles on third down are a concern. Allen’s ability to avoid mistakes is a key stat, and Solak gives the Bills a heat check rating of 8.
- Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
The Ravens, with +550 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 72.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 27.1% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They will face the Steelers in a rubber match. The Ravens’ strong finish to the season is promising, but Lamar Jackson’s playoff track record is a concern. The defense’s improvement in EPA allowed per opponent dropback is a key stat, and Solak rates the Ravens at 9 on the heat check scale.
- Houston Texans (10-7)
The Texans, with +6000 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 47.6% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 6.1% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They will host the Chargers in the wild-card round. The defense is a reason for hope, while offensive inconsistency is a concern. The Texans’ rank of 24th in EPA per play since Week 10 is a key stat, and Solak gives them a heat check rating of 5.
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
The Chargers, with +2500 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 52.4% FPI chance to make the divisional round and an 8.8% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They will play at Houston in the wild-card round. Jim Harbaugh’s coaching is a reason for hope, while the offense’s inconsistency is a concern. The Chargers’ impressive EPA allowed per designed run play and per dropback is a key stat, and Solak rates them at 5 on the heat check scale.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
The Steelers, with +7500 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 27.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 4.1% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They will face the Ravens in the wild-card round. Russell Wilson’s presence is a reason for hope, while defensive lapses are a concern. George Pickens’ impact on the offense is a key stat, and Solak gives the Steelers a heat check rating of 1.
- Denver Broncos (10-7)
The Broncos, with +6000 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 32.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 4.7% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They will play at Buffalo in the wild-card round. The defense is a reason for hope, while the offense’s three-and-outs are a concern. The Broncos’ use of man coverage and Pat Surtain II’s performance are key stats, and Solak rates them at 7 on the heat check scale.
NFC
- Detroit Lions (15-2)
The Lions, with +450 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 41.4% FPI chance to make it to the big game. As the NFC’s top seed, they will host the lowest-seeded wild-card winner in the divisional round. The offense is a reason for hope, while an injury-riddled defense is a concern. The Lions’ reliance on blitzing is a key stat, and Solak gives them a heat check rating of 8.
- Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
The Eagles, with +650 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 50.3% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 14.6% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They will host the Packers in the wild-card round. Elite personnel is a reason for hope, while slow starts are a concern. The Eagles’ dominance in the ground game is a key stat, and Solak rates them at 8 on the heat check scale.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
The Buccaneers, with +3000 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 58.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and an 11.1% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They will host the Commanders in the wild-card round. A versatile offense is a reason for hope, while defensive struggles are a concern. The Buccaneers’ YAC over expectation is a key stat, and Solak gives them a heat check rating of 2.
- Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
The Rams, with +3500 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 45.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 5.7% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They will host the Vikings in the wild-card round. Defensive improvement is a reason for hope, while offensive inconsistency is a concern. Puka Nacua’s target rate is a key stat, and Solak rates them at 4 on the heat check scale.
- Minnesota Vikings (14-3)
The Vikings, with +800 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 54.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 9.6% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They will play at the Rams in the wild-card round. Balance is a reason for hope, while reliance on close games is a concern. Sam Darnold’s completion percentage over expectation is a key stat, and Solak gives them a heat check rating of 7.
- Washington Commanders (12-5)
The Commanders, with +3000 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 41.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 5.3% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They will play at the Buccaneers in the wild-card round. Jayden Daniels is a reason for hope, while the run defense is a concern. Daniels’ rushing production is a key stat, and Solak gives them a heat check rating of 3.
- Green Bay Packers (11-6)
The Packers, with +1600 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 49.7% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 12.2% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They will play at the Eagles in the wild-card round. Running the ball and forcing turnovers are reasons for hope, while struggles against top NFC teams are a concern. Jordan Love’s QBR is a key stat, and Solak gives them a heat check rating of 2.
Originally Written by: NFL Nation,Ben Solak,Seth Walder
