2024 NFL Playoffs: A Deep Dive into the Teams, Players, and Matchups
As the calendar flips to January, the excitement of the 2024 NFL playoffs is palpable. The Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions have secured the coveted No. 1 seeds in the AFC and NFC, respectively, earning them first-round byes. This leaves the remaining 12 teams to battle it out in the wild-card round, which promises to be a thrilling three-day event. The action kicks off with two games on Saturday, followed by three on Sunday, and culminates with a Monday night showdown broadcast by ESPN/ABC.
As we gear up for the playoffs, several questions loom large: Which teams are poised for deep playoff runs? Which squads have vulnerabilities that could be exposed during the wild-card weekend? And which players are likely to be the game-changers on the road to Super Bowl LIX on February 9 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans?
Our NFL Nation team reporters have meticulously analyzed each of the 14 playoff teams, highlighting their strengths and weaknesses. Analytics writer Seth Walder has pinpointed a key stat for each team, while Ben Solak has provided a heat check rating (from 1 to 10) for each squad. Additionally, we’ve assessed all 14 teams’ updated chances to win it all using ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), with odds provided by ESPN BET.
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
The Chiefs, with odds of +350 to win the Super Bowl, have a 27.9% FPI chance to make it to the Super Bowl. As the top seed in the AFC, they will face the lowest-seeded wild-card team remaining in the divisional round. The Chiefs have a strong track record against potential opponents, boasting a 5-1 record against them this season. The return of receiver Hollywood Brown and the emergence of rookie Xavier Worthy have revitalized the offense, but pass protection remains a concern, with Mahomes sacked 36 times this season. Chris Jones, with 62 pass rush wins, remains a defensive force. Solak gives the Chiefs a heat check rating of 10, citing their strong position entering the postseason.
- Buffalo Bills (13-4)
The Bills, with +475 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 67.6% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 21.3% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They will host the Broncos in their first playoff game. Josh Allen, a leading MVP candidate, has been instrumental in the Bills’ success, leading an offense that has committed only eight turnovers this season. However, the defense’s inconsistency on third downs is a concern. Allen’s ability to avoid mistakes is a key strength, and Solak rates the Bills’ heat check at 8, noting their strong finish to the regular season.
- Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
With +550 odds to win the Super Bowl, the Ravens have a 72.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 27.1% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Steelers in a wild-card matchup. The Ravens have been in top form, winning their last four games, but Lamar Jackson’s playoff struggles are a concern. The defense has improved significantly, ranking first in EPA allowed per opponent dropback in recent weeks. Solak gives the Ravens a heat check rating of 9, highlighting their strong finish to the season.
- Houston Texans (10-7)
The Texans, with +6000 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 47.6% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 6.1% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They will host the Chargers in the wild-card round. The defense has been a bright spot, but offensive inconsistency is a concern. The Texans rank 24th in EPA per play since Week 10, highlighting their struggles on offense. Solak rates their heat check at 5, noting their potential with C.J. Stroud and a strong pass rush.
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
With +2500 odds to win the Super Bowl, the Chargers have a 52.4% FPI chance to make the divisional round and an 8.8% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Texans in the wild-card round. Jim Harbaugh’s playoff experience is a reason for hope, but the offense’s inconsistency is a concern. The Chargers’ defense ranks in the top six in EPA allowed per designed run play and per dropback. Solak gives them a heat check rating of 5, citing mixed vibes due to defensive decline.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
The Steelers, with +7500 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 27.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 4.1% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Ravens in the wild-card round. Russell Wilson provides a spark on offense, but defensive lapses are a concern. The Steelers’ performance with George Pickens on the field is notably better. Solak rates their heat check at 1, citing their struggles entering the postseason.
- Denver Broncos (10-7)
With +6000 odds to win the Super Bowl, the Broncos have a 32.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 4.7% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Bills in the wild-card round. The defense is a strength, but the offense’s high rate of three-and-outs is a concern. The Broncos play more man coverage than any other team, with Pat Surtain II excelling in coverage. Solak gives them a heat check rating of 7, noting their upward trajectory.
NFC
- Detroit Lions (15-2)
The Lions, with +450 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 41.4% FPI chance to make the Super Bowl. As the NFC’s top seed, they will host the lowest-seeded wild-card winner in the divisional round. The offense is a major strength, with multiple players surpassing 1,000 scrimmage yards. However, injuries on defense are a concern. The Lions have relied heavily on blitzing since Aidan Hutchinson’s injury. Solak rates their heat check at 8, acknowledging their strong position despite defensive worries.
- Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
With +650 odds to win the Super Bowl, the Eagles have a 50.3% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 14.6% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Packers in the wild-card round. The Eagles boast elite personnel, but slow starts are a concern. They rank first in EPA per designed carry on offense and defense. Solak gives them a heat check rating of 8, noting their strong roster and potential.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
The Buccaneers, with +3000 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 58.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and an 11.1% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Commanders in the wild-card round. The offense is versatile and high-powered, but the defense has struggled with health and consistency. The Buccaneers lead the league in YAC over expectation. Solak rates their heat check at 2, citing concerns with the pass defense and Mayfield’s performance.
- Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
With +3500 odds to win the Super Bowl, the Rams have a 45.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 5.7% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Vikings in the wild-card round. The defense has improved significantly, but the offense has been inconsistent. Puka Nacua’s target rate is historically high. Solak gives them a heat check rating of 4, noting concerns with the offense but acknowledging strong defensive performances.
- Minnesota Vikings (14-3)
The Vikings, with +800 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 54.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 9.6% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Rams in the wild-card round. The Vikings’ balance is a strength, but their reliance on close games is a concern. Sam Darnold’s completion percentage over expectation has improved significantly. Solak rates their heat check at 7, noting their strong team but acknowledging the challenge of winning on the road.
- Washington Commanders (12-5)
With +3000 odds to win the Super Bowl, the Commanders have a 41.5% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 5.3% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Buccaneers in the wild-card round. Jayden Daniels is a key player, but the run defense is a concern. Daniels’ rushing production has been crucial for the Commanders. Solak gives them a heat check rating of 3, citing recent struggles and concerns with the offense.
- Green Bay Packers (11-6)
The Packers, with +1600 odds to win the Super Bowl, have a 49.7% FPI chance to make the divisional round and a 12.2% chance to reach the Super Bowl. They face the Eagles in the wild-card round. The Packers excel in running the ball and forcing turnovers, but their record against NFC playoff teams is a concern. Jordan Love’s efficiency has improved significantly. Solak rates their heat check at 2, noting concerns with injuries and their record against strong teams.
Originally Written by: NFL Nation,Ben Solak,Seth Walder
