2024 NFL Playoffs: A Deep Dive into the Teams, Players, and Matchups
As the calendar flips to January, the excitement of the 2024 NFL playoffs is palpable. The Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions have earned the coveted No. 1 seeds in the AFC and NFC, respectively, granting them a well-deserved first-round bye. Meanwhile, the remaining 12 teams are gearing up for a thrilling wild-card weekend, set to unfold over three action-packed days. With two games on Saturday, three on Sunday, and a Monday night showdown on ESPN/ABC, fans are in for a treat.
As we look ahead, several questions loom large: Which teams are poised for a deep playoff run? Which squads have vulnerabilities that could be exposed during the wild-card matchups? And which players are primed to make a significant impact on their team’s journey to Super Bowl LIX on February 9 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans?
Our NFL Nation team reporters have meticulously analyzed each of the 14 playoff teams, highlighting their strengths and weaknesses. Analytics writer Seth Walder has pinpointed a key stat for each team, while Ben Solak has provided a heat check rating (on a scale of 1 to 10) for each squad. The odds, courtesy of ESPN BET, add another layer of intrigue to the playoff picture.
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
The Chiefs, with odds of +350 to win the Super Bowl and a 31.7% chance to make it to the big game, are in a strong position. As the top seed in the AFC, they will face the lowest-seeded wild-card team remaining in the divisional round. The Chiefs have a 5-1 record against potential opponents, including the Texans, Chargers, Steelers, and Broncos. Their revitalized offense, bolstered by the return of Hollywood Brown and the emergence of rookie Xavier Worthy, gives them reason for optimism. However, pass protection remains a concern, with Mahomes sacked 36 times this season. Chris Jones’ 62 pass rush wins, the most by a defensive tackle, highlight the defensive prowess that could be pivotal in the playoffs. Solak’s heat check rating for the Chiefs is a perfect 10.
- Buffalo Bills (13-4)
The Bills, with +475 odds to win the Super Bowl and a 21.8% chance to make it, are set to host the Broncos in their first playoff game. Josh Allen, a leading MVP candidate, has been instrumental in the Bills’ success, leading an offense that has committed only eight turnovers all season. However, the Bills’ third-down defense, which ranks fourth-worst in the league, could be a vulnerability. Allen’s ability to avoid mistakes, with the lowest sack and interception rates among QBR-qualified quarterbacks, is a key strength. Solak gives the Bills a heat check rating of 8.
- Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
The Ravens, with +550 odds and a 25.9% chance to make the Super Bowl, will face the Steelers in a highly anticipated matchup. Baltimore’s defense has been stellar, allowing a league-low 15.4 points per game over the past seven weeks. However, Lamar Jackson’s playoff struggles, with a 2-4 postseason record, are a concern. The Ravens’ defensive improvement, particularly in EPA allowed per opponent dropback, is noteworthy. Solak rates the Ravens at 9 on the heat check scale.
- Houston Texans (10-7)
The Texans, with +6000 odds and a 5.7% chance to make the Super Bowl, will host the Chargers. Houston’s defense, which has held opposing quarterbacks to a QBR of 54.7, is a key strength. However, offensive inconsistency, particularly against split-safety coverage, is a concern. The Texans rank 24th in EPA per play since Week 10, highlighting their offensive struggles. Solak gives the Texans a heat check rating of 5.
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
The Chargers, with +2500 odds and a 7.7% chance to make the Super Bowl, will face the Texans. Jim Harbaugh’s playoff experience and the team’s defensive prowess, particularly in EPA allowed per designed run play and per dropback, are reasons for hope. However, the offense’s inconsistency, especially in the second half of games, is a concern. Solak rates the Chargers at 5 on the heat check scale.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
The Steelers, with +7500 odds and a 3.8% chance to make the Super Bowl, will play the Ravens. Russell Wilson’s ability to make big plays is a strength, but defensive lapses and missed assignments are concerns. The Steelers’ reliance on George Pickens for offensive success is evident, with a significant drop in EPA per dropback without him. Solak gives the Steelers a heat check rating of 1.
- Denver Broncos (10-7)
The Broncos, with +6000 odds and a 3.4% chance to make the Super Bowl, will face the Bills. Denver’s defense, ranked third in overall efficiency, is a key strength. However, the offense’s high percentage of three-and-outs is a concern. The Broncos’ reliance on man coverage and Pat Surtain’s ability to shut down opposing receivers are noteworthy. Solak rates the Broncos at 7 on the heat check scale.
NFC
- Detroit Lions (15-2)
The Lions, with +450 odds and a 40.3% chance to make the Super Bowl, are the NFC’s top seed. Their high-powered offense, featuring Jared Goff and a historic group of skill players, is a major strength. However, an injury-riddled defense is a concern. The Lions’ reliance on blitzing to compensate for a lack of pass rush is evident. Solak gives the Lions a heat check rating of 8.
- Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
The Eagles, with +650 odds and a 15.5% chance to make the Super Bowl, will face the Packers. Philadelphia’s elite roster, featuring Saquon Barkley and a top-ranked defense, is a strength. However, slow starts have been an issue. The Eagles’ dominance in the ground game on both sides of the ball is noteworthy. Solak rates the Eagles at 8 on the heat check scale.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
The Buccaneers, with +3000 odds and an 11.1% chance to make the Super Bowl, will host the Commanders. Tampa Bay’s versatile offense, led by Baker Mayfield, is a strength. However, the defense’s struggles with health and consistency are concerns. The Buccaneers’ ability to generate yards after the catch is a key stat. Solak gives the Buccaneers a heat check rating of 2.
- Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
The Rams, with +3500 odds and a 5.9% chance to make the Super Bowl, will face the Vikings. Los Angeles’ defensive improvement is a reason for hope, but offensive inconsistency is a concern. Puka Nacua’s historic target rate is a key stat. Solak rates the Rams at 4 on the heat check scale.
- Minnesota Vikings (14-3)
The Vikings, with +800 odds and a 10.1% chance to make the Super Bowl, will play the Rams. Minnesota’s balance on both sides of the ball is a strength, but their reliance on rookie kicker Will Reichard is a concern. Sam Darnold’s improved accuracy is a key stat. Solak gives the Vikings a heat check rating of 7.
- Washington Commanders (12-5)
The Commanders, with +3000 odds and a 5.3% chance to make the Super Bowl, will face the Buccaneers. Jayden Daniels’ playmaking ability is a strength, but the run defense is a concern. Daniels’ rushing production is a key stat. Solak rates the Commanders at 3 on the heat check scale.
- Green Bay Packers (11-6)
The Packers, with +1600 odds and an 11.9% chance to make the Super Bowl, will play the Eagles. Green Bay’s ability to run the ball and force turnovers is a strength, but their record against NFC playoff teams is a concern. Jordan Love’s efficiency is a key stat. Solak gives the Packers a heat check rating of 2.
Originally Written by: NFL Nation,Ben Solak,Seth Walder
