2024 NFL Playoffs: A Deep Dive into the Teams, Players, and Matchups
As the calendar flips to January, the excitement of the 2024 NFL playoffs is palpable. The Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions have earned the coveted No. 1 seeds in the AFC and NFC, respectively, granting them a well-deserved first-round bye. Meanwhile, the remaining 12 teams are gearing up for a thrilling wild-card weekend, set to unfold over three action-packed days. With two games on Saturday, three on Sunday, and a Monday night showdown on ESPN/ABC, fans are in for a treat.
As we look ahead, several questions loom large: Which teams are poised for a deep playoff run? Which squads have vulnerabilities that could be exposed during the wild-card matchups? And which players are primed to make a significant impact on their team’s journey to Super Bowl LIX on February 9 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans?
Our NFL Nation team reporters have meticulously analyzed each of the 14 playoff teams, highlighting their strengths and weaknesses. Analytics writer Seth Walder has pinpointed a crucial stat for each team, while Ben Solak has provided a personal heat check rating (on a scale of 1 to 10) for each playoff contender. The odds, courtesy of ESPN BET, add another layer of intrigue to the playoff picture.
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
The Chiefs, with odds of +350 to win the Super Bowl and a 31.7% chance to make it to the big game, are in a strong position. They have secured the AFC’s top seed for the second time in three seasons and the fifth time since Patrick Mahomes took the helm as the starting quarterback. Their first playoff game will be in the divisional round against the lowest-seeded wild-card team remaining, with potential opponents including the Texans, Chargers, Steelers, or Broncos. The Chiefs boast a 5-1 record against these teams, having swept the Chargers, beaten both Houston and Pittsburgh, and split games with the Broncos.
Reason for hope: The Chiefs’ offense is firing on all cylinders, thanks to the return of receiver Hollywood Brown, the emergence of rookie wideout Xavier Worthy, and All-Pro guard Joe Thuney’s transition to left tackle. Patrick Mahomes and the starters have been in top form, with Mahomes stating, “We’ve gotten better and better before Hollywood got here. Xavier started playing better, being more confident … it kind of sets everybody perfectly in their roles.”
Reason for concern: Pass protection remains a concern, as Mahomes was sacked 36 times this season, the most in his career. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor’s 17 penalties have also been a hurdle for the Chiefs.
Stat to know: Chris Jones recorded 62 pass rush wins this season, the most by a defensive tackle, underscoring his potential to be a game-changer in the playoffs.
Heat check rating: 10. With a first-round bye, home-field advantage, and a healthy roster, the Chiefs are in an enviable position.
- Buffalo Bills (13-4)
The Bills, with +475 odds to win the Super Bowl and a 21.8% chance to make it, are set to host the No. 7-seeded Broncos. Buffalo’s last encounter with Denver ended in a narrow 24-22 loss, but the Bills are eager to turn the tables this time around.
Reason for hope: Josh Allen, a leading MVP candidate, has been instrumental in the Bills’ success, leading the offense to 12 games with 30 or more points and committing only eight turnovers all season.
Reason for concern: The Bills’ defense has struggled on third downs, allowing a 43.8% conversion rate, which could be problematic against potent playoff offenses.
Stat to know: Allen’s low sack, interception, and fumble rates highlight his ability to avoid mistakes, a key factor in his MVP-caliber season.
Heat check rating: 8. The Bills have momentum on their side, having won 10 of their last 12 games.
- Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
The Ravens, with +550 odds to win the Super Bowl and a 25.9% chance to make it, will face the Steelers in a highly anticipated rubber match. Baltimore’s defense has been stellar, allowing a league-low 15.4 points per game over the past seven weeks.
Reason for hope: The Ravens are peaking at the right time, with a strong finish to the regular season and a defense that has been dominant.
Reason for concern: Lamar Jackson’s playoff struggles are a concern, as he has yet to capture a Super Bowl title despite his regular-season success.
Stat to know: The Ravens’ defensive improvement is evident, as they ranked first in EPA allowed per opponent dropback from Weeks 11-18.
Heat check rating: 9. The Ravens are in excellent form, with Jackson making a strong MVP push and the defense performing at a high level.
- Houston Texans (10-7)
The Texans, with +6000 odds to win the Super Bowl and a 5.7% chance to make it, will host the Chargers. Houston’s defense has been a bright spot, holding opposing quarterbacks to a QBR of 54.7 and recording 49 sacks.
Reason for hope: The Texans’ defense is formidable, with standout performances from Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.
Reason for concern: Offensive inconsistency is a concern, as the Texans rank 18th in scoring and have struggled against split-safety coverage.
Stat to know: The Texans rank 24th in EPA per play since Week 10, highlighting their offensive struggles.
Heat check rating: 5. While the Texans have had a challenging season, they have the potential to surprise in the playoffs.
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
The Chargers, with +2500 odds to win the Super Bowl and a 7.7% chance to make it, will face the Texans. Jim Harbaugh’s playoff experience and the team’s defensive prowess provide hope for a deep run.
Reason for hope: Harbaugh’s track record in the playoffs and the Chargers’ strong defense are reasons for optimism.
Reason for concern: The Chargers’ offense has been inconsistent, particularly in the second half of games.
Stat to know: The Chargers rank in the top six in EPA allowed per designed run play and per dropback, thanks to a strong secondary.
Heat check rating: 5. The Chargers have the potential to make noise in the playoffs, but their offensive struggles are a concern.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
The Steelers, with +7500 odds to win the Super Bowl and a 3.8% chance to make it, will face the Ravens. Russell Wilson’s presence has revitalized the offense, but defensive lapses remain a concern.
Reason for hope: Wilson’s ability to stretch the field gives the Steelers’ offense a new dimension.
Reason for concern: Defensive lapses have plagued the Steelers, who have given up an average of 380.5 yards and 27.3 points during a late-season slide.
Stat to know: George Pickens’ impact on the offense is significant, as the Steelers’ average depth of target increases with him on the field.
Heat check rating: 1. The Steelers enter the playoffs on a four-game losing streak, with several key players dealing with injuries.
- Denver Broncos (10-7)
The Broncos, with +6000 odds to win the Super Bowl and a 3.4% chance to make it, will face the Bills. Denver’s defense has been a standout unit, but the offense’s struggles with three-and-outs are a concern.
Reason for hope: The Broncos’ defense is among the best in the league, with a strong pass rush and playmaking ability.
Reason for concern: The offense’s inability to sustain drives has put pressure on the defense.
Stat to know: The Broncos play more man coverage than any other team, with Pat Surtain II excelling in his role.
Heat check rating: 7. The Broncos have been trending upward, with a strong defense and a promising rookie quarterback.
NFC
- Detroit Lions (15-2)
The Lions, with +450 odds to win the Super Bowl and a 40.3% chance to make it, are the NFC’s top seed for the first time in franchise history. Their high-powered offense, led by Jared Goff, has been a force to be reckoned with.
Reason for hope: The Lions’ offense is dynamic, with multiple playmakers capable of overwhelming defenses.
Reason for concern: Injuries on defense have been a challenge, and the Lions may need to win shootouts in the playoffs.
Stat to know: The Lions have relied heavily on the blitz since Aidan Hutchinson’s injury, with significant differences in performance when blitzing versus not blitzing.
Heat check rating: 8. The Lions are in a strong position, but defensive concerns linger.
- Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
The Eagles, with +650 odds to win the Super Bowl and a 15.5% chance to make it, will face the Packers. Philadelphia’s elite roster and ground game are key strengths, but slow starts have been an issue.
Reason for hope: The Eagles have a talented and physical roster, with a strong running game and defense.
Reason for concern: Slow starts could be costly against strong playoff opponents.
Stat to know: The Eagles rank first in EPA per designed carry on offense and defense, highlighting their dominance in the ground game.
Heat check rating: 8. The Eagles are in a good position, but Jalen Hurts’ health is a concern.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
The Buccaneers, with +3000 odds to win the Super Bowl and an 11.1% chance to make it, will host the Commanders. Tampa Bay’s versatile offense is a strength, but the defense has struggled with injuries and consistency.
Reason for hope: The Buccaneers’ offense is high-powered, with Baker Mayfield leading the way.
Reason for concern: The defense has been inconsistent, particularly in the secondary.
Stat to know: The Buccaneers lead the league in YAC over expectation, with several players contributing to their success.
Heat check rating: 2. The Buccaneers have struggled down the stretch, with concerns on both sides of the ball.
- Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
The Rams, with +3500 odds to win the Super Bowl and a 5.9% chance to make it, will face the Vikings. The defense has improved significantly, but the offense has been inconsistent.
Reason for hope: The Rams’ defense has been dominant in recent weeks, with strong performances from the defensive front.
Reason for concern: The offense has struggled to find consistency, particularly in the first quarter.
Stat to know: Puka Nacua’s target rate is the highest for a player with at least 200 routes run since 2007.
Heat check rating: 4. The Rams have shown improvement, but offensive concerns remain.
- Minnesota Vikings (14-3)
The Vikings, with +800 odds to win the Super Bowl and a 10.1% chance to make it, will face the Rams. Minnesota’s balanced team is a strength, but the kicking game is a concern.
Reason for hope: The Vikings have a balanced team, capable of winning in multiple ways.
Reason for concern: The kicking game has been inconsistent, with rookie Will Reichard in a slump.
Stat to know: Sam Darnold’s completion percentage over expectation has improved significantly this season.
Heat check rating: 7. The Vikings are a strong team, but the kicking game is a concern.
- Washington Commanders (12-5)
The Commanders, with +3000 odds to win the Super Bowl and a 5.3% chance to make it, will face the Buccaneers. Jayden Daniels has been a standout player, but the run defense is a concern.
Reason for hope: Daniels has been a dynamic playmaker, leading the Commanders to several game-winning drives.
Reason for concern: The run defense has been a weakness, ranking among the worst in the league.
Stat to know: Daniels leads the league in total EPA on designed runs and scrambles, highlighting his impact on the ground.
Heat check rating: 3. The Commanders have been inconsistent, with concerns on both sides of the ball.
- Green Bay Packers (11-6)
The Packers, with +1600 odds to win the Super Bowl and an 11.9% chance to make it, will face the Eagles. Green Bay’s strong running game and ability to force turnovers are strengths, but they have struggled against top NFC teams.
Reason for hope: The Packers excel in running the ball and forcing turnovers, key factors for playoff success.
Reason for concern: The Packers have struggled against top NFC teams, with a 0-5 record against the Eagles, Lions, and Vikings.
Stat to know: Jordan Love ranks fifth in QBR, with significant improvement in efficiency this season.
Heat check rating: 2. The Packers have concerns, particularly with injuries to key players.
Originally Written by: NFL Nation,Ben Solak,Seth Walder
