NFL Favorites Poised to Make History as Bettors Reap Rewards
As we approach the final week of the NFL regular season, there’s a buzz in the air that’s hard to ignore. NFL betting favorites, affectionately known as “the chalk,” are on the brink of setting a new record. With 183 games won outright this season, they are just five victories shy of breaking the all-time record set back in 2005. As we head into Week 18, the favored teams have won an impressive 71.8% of games, marking the highest winning percentage for favorites since 2005 and the second-best since the NFL adopted a 16-game schedule in 1978, according to ESPN Research.
Let’s take a moment to rewind to the start of the season. Sportsbooks were riding high with underdogs pulling off 26 upsets in September, the second-most ever for the opening month. Nevada sportsbooks celebrated a net win of $80.9 million in September, making it the most lucrative month in the state’s 75-year betting history. But as the season progressed, the tables turned. The upsets that characterized the early season began to dwindle, and by December, favorites were on fire. In Week 17 alone, favorites won as many as 15 of 16 games, with the point spread varying on the Green Bay Packers–Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans–Jacksonville Jaguars games. Overall, in December, favorites are 56-17 straight-up, boasting a 76.7% win rate, the second-highest for the month in the last 50 seasons.
This winning streak for favorites has been a boon for the betting public, who typically back the perceived superior team, especially in parlays. Chris Andrews, a seasoned Las Vegas sportsbook director with the South Point, estimated that his shop needs the underdog in “75%” of NFL games. “Maybe more this year,” Andrews shared with ESPN in a text message.
Favorites have covered the spread in 53.9% of games this season, the best rate since 2017 and the seventh-best in the Super Bowl era. Joe Brennen, head of Prime Sportsbook, noted, “Some of our seasoned traders have said this is the worst NFL season since 2017.”
Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow highlighted that with so many favorites winning, bettors were poised for a big weekend. “The biggest decisions all went the way of the customers in the Chargers and Bengals [on Saturday],” Mucklow said. “The parlay buster in the New York Giants outright win [over the Indianapolis Colts] was the difference between a historic day for the customers versus a huge sigh of relief for the book.”
Looking ahead to Week 18, there’s an unusual twist with the two-time defending-champion Kansas City Chiefs starting the week as 10-point road underdogs to the Denver Broncos, who are fighting for their playoff lives. Despite Kansas City having clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the odds are stacked against them. John Murray, vice president for the Westgate SuperBook, quipped, “Maybe an underdog can win a football game? That would be cool.”
- Favorites have won 183 games outright this season.
- Favorites have a 71.8% winning percentage entering Week 18.
- Favorites are 56-17 straight-up in December.
- Favorites have covered the spread in 53.9% of games this season.
- Kansas City Chiefs are 10-point underdogs to the Denver Broncos in Week 18.
As we gear up for the final week, all eyes will be on whether the favorites can continue their dominant run and make history. For bettors, it’s been a season to remember, and Week 18 promises to be just as thrilling.
Originally Written by: David Purdum
