How Good is the NFC North? Breaking Down the Final Five Weeks of the 2024 NFL Regular Season
As we enter the final five weeks of the 2024 NFL regular season, one question looms large: just how good is the NFC North? Spoiler alert: it’s historically good. The Detroit Lions (11-1), Minnesota Vikings (10-2), and Green Bay Packers (9-3) are not just dominating their division—they’re dominating the entire league. These three teams hold three of the top four records in the NFC and three of the top seven in the entire NFL. Let that sink in for a moment.
According to ESPN Research, this marks the first time since the 1970 merger that three teams from the same division have entered Week 14 with a win percentage of at least .750. That’s not just impressive—it’s unprecedented. Even the Chicago Bears, sitting at 4-8, have been competitive, losing to their division rivals by a combined seven points over the past three weeks. Oh, and they just fired head coach Matt Eberflus after a Thanksgiving loss, so they’re not exactly coasting to the finish line either.
With every NFC North team set to face each other over the final five weeks, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Will the Lions hold on to win the division for the second straight year? Can the Vikings or Packers knock them off the top? And could the Bears play spoiler under interim head coach Thomas Brown? Let’s break it all down.
Detroit Lions (11-1)
FPI’s overall ranking: 1
Chances to win division: 84.7%
Chances to make the playoffs: 100%
Chances to make/win Super Bowl: 38.2%/24.3%
Remaining games: vs. Packers, vs. Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings
Why the Lions Could Win the Division
The Lions are the NFL’s most balanced team across offense, defense, and special teams. At 11-1, they’re off to the best start in franchise history, with divisional wins over Minnesota, Green Bay, and Chicago. They’re also the league’s only undefeated team on the road (6-0). After last year’s NFC Championship run, Detroit looks poised to repeat as NFC North champions. This team is the real deal.
Why the Lions Could Make a Deep Playoff Run
Last season, the Lions ended a 30-year drought with a postseason win over the Los Angeles Rams before falling one game short of the Super Bowl. With most of that core roster back, including stars like Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Lions are even better this year. That playoff experience could be the key to taking the next step.
Biggest Concern Going Forward
Injuries. The Lions’ defense has been hit hard, with key players like Aidan Hutchinson and Alex Anzalone on injured reserve. While defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has done a great job developing depth, the question remains: can they sustain this success if more players go down?
Lions’ X-Factor Player
Jameson Williams. The wide receiver has the talent to be a game-changing deep threat, but his off-field decisions have raised concerns. If he can stay focused, he could be the difference-maker Detroit needs.
Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
FPI’s overall ranking: 7
Chances to win division: 10.0%
Chances to make the playoffs: 99.8%
Chances to make/win Super Bowl: 10.7%/5.2%
Remaining games: vs. Falcons, vs. Bears, at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions
Why the Vikings Could Win the Division
It won’t be easy. The Vikings have the NFL’s fourth-toughest remaining schedule, but they’re peaking at the right time. Quarterback Sam Darnold is playing the best football of his career, and if the Lions stumble, Minnesota could be in position to steal the division in Week 18.
Why the Vikings Could Make a Deep Playoff Run
Defense wins championships, and the Vikings’ defense has been elite. They lead the league in interceptions (18) and rank fourth in opposing QBR. If their defense keeps games close, they’ll be a tough out in the playoffs.
Biggest Concern Going Forward
Age. The Vikings rely heavily on veterans like Harrison Smith (35) and Stephon Gilmore (34). Fatigue could become an issue as the season wears on.
Vikings’ X-Factor Player
Sam Darnold. The quarterback has been lights out recently, but he’s never led a team through a playoff push. How he handles the pressure will determine Minnesota’s ceiling.
Green Bay Packers (9-3)
FPI’s overall ranking: 4
Chances to win division: 5.3%
Chances to make the playoffs: 99.1%
Chances to make/win Super Bowl: 14.4%/8.0%
Remaining games: at Lions, at Seahawks, vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears
Why the Packers Could Win the Division
It all hinges on Thursday night’s game against Detroit. A loss would all but eliminate Green Bay from the division race, but a win could keep their hopes alive. The Packers have been red-hot lately, outscoring opponents 68-27 over their last two games.
Why the Packers Could Make a Deep Playoff Run
The run game. Josh Jacobs has been a workhorse, ranking fourth in the NFL in carries. His ability to control the clock could be a game-changer in the postseason.
Biggest Concern Going Forward
Penalties. The Packers lead the league in offside penalties, which could prove costly in tight games. Head coach Matt LaFleur has called it a “huge problem.”
Packers’ X-Factor Player
Kicker Brandon McManus. Since joining the team, he’s been nearly automatic, giving Green Bay a reliable weapon in close games.
Chicago Bears (4-8)
Remaining games: at 49ers, at Vikings, vs. Lions, vs. Seahawks, at Packers
Why the Bears Could Shake Up the Division
Don’t let their record fool you—the Bears have been competitive in every divisional game, losing by a combined seven points to Green Bay, Minnesota, and Detroit. With rookie quarterback Caleb Williams showing promise, Chicago could play spoiler down the stretch.
What Impact Has Thomas Brown Had on Williams?
Since taking over as offensive coordinator, Brown has helped Williams improve his QBR from 39 to 77. The rookie has thrown five touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last three games. That’s a huge step forward.
How Far Are the Bears From Contending?
With a better offensive line and the right head coach, the Bears could be in the mix as soon as 2025. Williams has the talent to compete with the division’s best quarterbacks, but Chicago needs to nail its offseason moves.
Players to Watch
- Caleb Williams: The rookie QB’s development is key to Chicago’s future.
- Keenan Allen: The veteran wideout has been a bright spot and could earn an extension.
The NFC North is shaping up to be a battle for the ages. Buckle up—it’s going to be a wild ride.
Originally Written by: Eric Woodyard
