Live Tracking the NFL Playoff Picture: Updated Chances to Clinch Two Open Spots, Two Division Titles
As we approach the thrilling conclusion of the NFL regular season, fans and analysts alike are glued to the unfolding drama of playoff scenarios. ESPN Analytics’ live NFL playoff chances are at the forefront of this excitement, offering a dynamic blend of current in-game win probabilities and the Football Power Index (FPI) season projections. These projections provide a real-time glimpse into each team’s postseason likelihood as we navigate through the Week 18 slate. The projected final standings are constantly updated, and we’re keeping a close eye on some tight postseason races and the 2025 draft order for non-playoff teams. Let’s dive into how things are stacking up in both conferences.
Current NFC Playoff Picture
The NFC playoff picture is as intense as ever, with several teams vying for those coveted spots. The top seed in the NFC is still up for grabs, and it all comes down to a nail-biting showdown on Sunday night. The Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions are set to face off for the bye and the NFC North title. This game is a must-watch, as the winner will not only claim the division crown but also secure the top seed in the conference, earning a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The stakes couldn’t be higher, and we’re tracking every twist and turn live.
Current AFC Playoff Picture
Over in the AFC, the playoff picture is equally compelling. The Denver Broncos have clinched the final spot in the AFC field with a commanding 38-0 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. This win secures them the No. 7 seed, and they are now set to face the Buffalo Bills on the road in the wild-card round. The Broncos’ path to the playoffs was anything but straightforward, with losses in Week 16 and Week 17 keeping fans on the edge of their seats. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals were in the mix until Sunday afternoon, but ultimately, it was Denver that closed the deal.
How the Bucs Won the NFC South
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have once again claimed the NFC South title, marking their fourth consecutive season as division champs. Their 27-19 win over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday was a testament to their resilience, as they mounted a comeback to secure the victory. With this win, the Bucs will be the 3-seed in the NFC playoffs and are set to face the Washington Commanders in the wild-card round.
Looking Ahead to the 2025 NFL Draft
While 14 teams will ultimately make the playoffs, 18 others will begin their offseasons at the conclusion of Week 18. These franchises will soon be making crucial personnel decisions, evaluating their coaching staffs, exploring the trade market, and navigating the free agent pool. The 2025 NFL draft is also on the horizon, set to take place on April 24 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Each team will have the opportunity to land a top prospect in Round 1.
- The Tennessee Titans hold the No. 1 pick.
- They are followed by the Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, New England Patriots, and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Who will be the lucky team to draft Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders or Travis Hunter? What about Miami’s Cam Ward and Penn State’s Abdul Carter? The draft order for the league’s bottom 18 teams is set, and the anticipation is building.
Methodology
Playoff probabilities are updated as the games progress, based on ESPN Analytics’ live win probabilities and its NFL Football Power Index (FPI) projections. Live in-game win probabilities measure multiple factors, including score, time remaining, field position, down-and-distance, team opponent strength, and game site. These live probabilities are used by the FPI’s projections, which simulate the season based on each team’s strength, schedule, and tiebreaking rules. The result is a live representation of a team’s various playoff, division, and seeding chances, along with an updated projection of the final standings. Those simulations also project the top 18 picks in the 2025 draft.
Edited by Ben Arledge and Dane Beavers.
Produced by ESPN Creative Studio: Dominique DeMoe, Jarret Gabel, Luke Knox, Munehito Sawada, Garrett Siegel, and Rachel Weiss.
Illustrations by Josue Evilla. ESPN Analytics: Henry Gargiulo, Chris Harden, and Matt Morris.
Originally Written by: ESPN.com
