Live tracking the NFL playoff picture: Updated chances to clinch two open spots, two division titles

Live Tracking the NFL Playoff Picture: Updated Chances to Clinch Two Open Spots, Two Division Titles

As we dive into the final week of the NFL regular season, the stakes couldn’t be higher. With ESPN Analytics’ live NFL playoff chances, fans can keep a close eye on how their favorite teams are faring in the race to the postseason. This tool combines current in-game win probabilities with the Football Power Index (FPI) season projections, offering a dynamic view of each team’s postseason likelihood throughout the Week 18 slate. The projected final standings are updated regularly, and we’re also keeping tabs on a few tight postseason races and the 2025 draft order for non-playoff teams. Let’s see how things stack up in both conferences throughout every game.

Current NFC Playoff Picture

The NFC playoff picture is as thrilling as ever, with several teams vying for those coveted spots. While the exact rankings and team names are not detailed here, the excitement is palpable as fans eagerly await the outcomes of the final games. Each team is fighting tooth and nail to secure their place in the postseason, and the competition is fierce.

Current AFC Playoff Picture

Over in the AFC, the playoff race is equally intense. Teams are battling it out on the field, with every play potentially making or breaking their chances. The stakes are high, and the pressure is on as the final week unfolds. Fans are on the edge of their seats, watching closely to see which teams will emerge victorious and claim their spot in the playoffs.

We’re down to the final week of the regular season, and there are two playoff spots (one in the AFC, one in the NFC) and two division titles there for the taking. Plus, the No. 1 seed in the NFC hasn’t been clinched — that will come down to Sunday night.

We’re tracking the closest, most interesting races live during Week 18. We have you covered through all the swings, big plays, and surprises.

Who Will Win the NFC South?

This was a 50-50 race at the beginning of Week 17, but things changed quickly when the Buccaneers won and the Falcons lost. Now, Tampa Bay would be the NFC South champ for a fourth consecutive season with a win or tie against the Saints or a loss/tie from the Falcons against the Panthers. Atlanta would need to win and see Tampa Bay lose to flip the script.

And unlike the AFC North race, the loser of this division title race won’t be making the playoffs.

While 14 teams will ultimately make the playoffs, 18 others start their offseasons at the conclusion of Week 18. Those franchises will soon be making personnel decisions, evaluating their coaching staffs, working the trade market, and navigating the free agent pool. But the 2025 NFL draft also lies ahead (April 24 in Green Bay, Wisconsin), and each team will have the chance to land a top prospect in Round 1.

Who is set up to take Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders or Travis Hunter? What about Miami’s Cam Ward and Penn State’s Abdul Carter? Here is how the draft order projects at this moment for the league’s bottom 18 teams, along with their chances to pick at No. 1 and in the top five.

Projected 2025 NFL Draft Order

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Methodology

Playoff probabilities are updated as the games progress, based on ESPN Analytics’ live win probabilities and its NFL Football Power Index (FPI) projections. Live in-game win probabilities measure multiple factors, including score, time remaining, field position, down-and-distance, team opponent strength, and game site. These live probabilities are used by the FPI’s projections, which simulate the season based on each team’s strength, schedule, and tiebreaking rules. The result is a live representation of a team’s various playoff, division, and seeding chances, along with an updated projection of the final standings. Those simulations also project the top 18 picks in the 2025 draft.

Edited by Ben Arledge and Dane Beavers.

Produced by ESPN Creative Studio: Dominique DeMoe, Jarret Gabel, Luke Knox, Munehito Sawada, Garrett Siegel, and Rachel Weiss.

Illustrations by Josue Evilla. ESPN Analytics: Henry Gargiulo, Chris Harden, and Matt Morris.