Judging Five Possible Overreactions to the Full NFL Schedule: The 49ers Have It Easy, Right?

Judging Five Possible Overreactions to the Full NFL Schedule: The 49ers Have It Easy, Right?

Hey there, NFL fans! It’s that time of year again when we all get a little bit carried away with the release of the new NFL schedule. Let’s be honest, this whole week is an overreaction, right? We’ve known the 2025 opponents for every NFL team since the end of the 2024 regular season. Wednesday night’s announcement of the full 2025 schedule — following a few days’ worth of individual-game reveals (mostly involving the Eagles) — is mainly noteworthy because it offers fans and reporters the chance to make a bunch of flight and hotel reservations.

But hey, it is fun. We sit here in the middle of May, with the NBA and NHL playoffs dominating sports coverage, feeling about as far from the NFL season as possible. So to see it start to take shape — to play the win-win-lose-win-lose-win game with your favorite team’s game-by-game schedule — is a good feeling for NFL fans. We want to treat it like a game week. And you know what that means …

That’s right. It’s schedule release overreactions! Let’s judge whether a few potential takeaways from the 2025 schedule are legitimate or irrational.

Note: To assess strength of schedule throughout these overreactions, we used the admittedly imperfect method of using opponent win-loss records from the previous season.

Jump to a potential overreaction on:
49ers’ very easy schedule
Giants’ very hard schedule
Lions’ road/outdoor schedule
Vikings’ international schedule
Cowboys’ second-half schedule

The 49ers Will Cruise Back into the Playoffs

Flip the calendar back a year and the 49ers were one of the strongest favorites to reach or even win the Super Bowl. They were on a three-year streak of advancing at least to the NFC Championship Game and had just lost the Super Bowl to the Chiefs in overtime. But a stunning rash of injuries — most notably to star running back Christian McCaffrey — sunk San Francisco’s 2024 season. The Niners finished 6-11 and in last place in the NFC West.

This year, the 49ers project to have the league’s easiest 17-game slate. Their 2025 opponents combined for a .415 win percentage in 2024. Their nondivision home games are against the Falcons, Panthers, Jaguars, Titans and Bears, and their nondivision away games are against the Browns, Texans, Colts, Saints, Buccaneers and Giants. There are just two 2024 playoff teams on San Francisco’s out-of-division schedule this season (Texans and Buccaneers), and the only in-division games it will play against 2024 playoff teams are the two versus the Rams.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Oh, it’s totally fair to expect the 49ers to bounce back and be a contender this season. During the Kyle Shanahan era, they’ve been exactly that whenever they’ve been able to avoid the kind of terrible injury luck they had last season. But it’s important to remember how much has changed in San Francisco this offseason.

The Niners have said goodbye to wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr., guard Aaron Banks, defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, cornerback Charvarius Ward and safety Talanoa Hufanga. Nearly half of the starting lineup from the Super Bowl they played in 15 months ago is no longer on the team. They still have Brock Purdy at quarterback, and getting McCaffrey, wideout Brandon Aiyuk and left tackle Trent Williams back healthy will certainly help. But it’s not fair to expect the 2025 49ers to just snap back to what they were in 2023.

Also, the past three teams that entered the season with the “easiest” schedule (again, according to previous campaign’s winning percentages) all finished with losing records. That tells you a lot about the relevancy of having the “easiest” schedule.

Jaxson Dart Will Be the Giants’ Starting Quarterback by November

The Giants traded up to select Dart in the first round of this year’s draft because they believe he can be their franchise quarterback of the future. They also signed veterans Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston in free agency, giving them starting QB options in case they didn’t get one in the draft or the guy they did draft wasn’t ready to start right away. The Giants’ plan, as of now, is to start Wilson and give Dart as much time as he needs to get ready — the whole 2025 season, if need be. And the fact that the Giants have the hardest schedule in the NFL could be a big reason to let Dart have the whole season to learn behind the veterans.

Of course, the tough-looking schedule also could mean the Giants fall out of contention early and decide to get Dart some NFL game experience in a lower-pressure environment. The Giants have games at Washington, Dallas, New Orleans, Denver and Philadelphia in the first eight weeks of the season, and their three home games in that stretch are against the Chiefs, Chargers and Eagles.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

We all know this never works, right? Teams always say they want to give their rookie quarterback whatever time he needs, and they very often say they’re willing to sit him the entire season if needed. Think back to last season’s Patriots, who started Jacoby Brissett while rookie Drake Maye rode the bench to begin the campaign. But inevitably, once losses start piling up, the team decides it has to make a change. The Patriots won their opener but lost the next four games, and Maye was the starting QB in Week 6 (and for the rest of the season).

Literally the only time this rest-the-rookie-all-season plan has worked was with the 2017 Chiefs, who started 5-0 and stayed in first place all season behind Alex Smith while Patrick Mahomes sat on the bench. (And even then, Mahomes played with backups in the final game of the regular season.) The odds of the Giants starting 5-0 against the Commanders, Cowboys, Chiefs, Chargers and Saints and staying in first place all season feel slim, at best.

All of the history around these situations tells us Dart will play at some point this season. Wilson hasn’t been a very good starting quarterback for the past four years. Winston is a stopgap guy at this point in his career. Dart is the Giants’ future, and unless their present is going to be a very pleasant surprise to a lot of people, they’re going to want to get that future going as soon as possible. It could be as early as the Week 5 at New Orleans, after the Week 6 Thursday night game against the Eagles or after the Week 8 game in Philly.

The Lions’ Two-Year NFC North Title Streak Will Come to an End

After not winning their division since 1993, the Lions finished first with a 12-5 record in 2023 and repeated as NFC North champs with a 15-2 record last season. They’ve seen a lot of turnover on their coaching staff this offseason, with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson now the coach of the Bears and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn the new coach of the Jets. But the roster remains extremely strong on paper, and getting star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson back from his season-ending leg injury should only help.

It’s important to remember, though, that this division had three playoff teams last season, and that the Lions needed to beat the Vikings in the final game of the regular season to seal their second straight division title.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Not to take anything at all away from the brilliant season that Dan Campbell’s bunch just had, but you may recall that 15 of the 18 games they played (including their playoff matchup) were indoors. Sure, they won all three of their outdoor games — at Green Bay in Week 9, at Chicago in Week 16 and at San Francisco in Week 17. But let’s not forget that Lions quarterback Jared Goff has a 51.4 career QBR and a 1.9 career TD/INT ratio in outdoor games versus a 61.7 QBR and a 3.2 TD/INT ratio in indoor games.

Why does this matter? Well, this season’s Lions schedule features seven outdoor games. In addition to their annual in-division trips to Green Bay and Chicago, the Lions play at Philadelphia, Washington, Kansas City, Baltimore and Cincinnati in 2025. And of Detroit’s nine road opponents this season, seven made the playoffs in 2024. The Lions’ road opponents this season combined for a .667 win percentage in 2024, giving them the toughest road strength of schedule by any team in the Super Bowl era.

Factor in the strength of the division, nearly half of their games being outdoors and having to play road matchups against five teams that went deeper than they did in the 2024 postseason, and the Lions’ path to a three-peat in the North looks very daunting.

The Vikings Got a Raw Deal with Back-to-Back Games in Dublin and London

The Vikings will travel to play the Steelers in the first-ever NFL game in Dublin in Week 4, then play the Browns in London in Week 5. It is the first time a team will play consecutive NFL games in different countries outside of the United States.

The arrangement likely keeps the Vikings away from home for 10 days, as they’ll surely stay overseas for the week between the two games rather than fly home and fly back. And in what shapes up as an incredibly competitive NFC North division, it’s the kind of thing that could set a team back if it doesn’t handle it the right way.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

The Vikings are cool with this, guys. They knew about it well ahead of time. Coach Kevin O’Connell told London reporters that it was “kind of a joint decision” between the team and the NFL. And while it may be historic, playing games in consecutive weeks in two different foreign countries, it’s not like these countries are Australia and Finland. The flight from Dublin to London isn’t much longer than the flight from Minneapolis to Green Bay, which the Vikings make literally every year.

The past couple of years, the Jaguars have played consecutive weeks in London and stayed over in between. O’Connell and his staff are sure to use the 10 days away as a bonding experience for the team.

And as O’Connell pointed out the other day when the games were announced, the Vikings are technically the road team in both of these games. That means that, while most NFC teams will play nine road games this season, the Vikings will play seven road matchups and two neutral-site games. The Vikings have never won at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, and they’ve won only one game in Cleveland since 1989. That’s two would-be outdoor road games in hostile places that can get cold and windy that the Vikings now don’t have to worry about this season. Minnesota’s going to be just fine with this arrangement.

The Cowboys Could Have a Very Unhappy Holiday Season

Dallas has a Week 10 bye, which is just about the ideal time to have one. They also come out of it to play the Raiders on a Monday night. So they will 13 days off before starting the second half of their season. They’d better rest up …

After the Raiders game, the Cowboys have a home matchup against the Eagles on short rest, then a Thanksgiving Day home game against the Chiefs on even shorter rest. So after 13 days without playing, they’ll play three games in 11 days, with two of those coming against last season’s Super Bowl teams. Then they’re at Detroit the following Thursday before home games against the Vikings and Chargers in Weeks 15 and 16, respectively. Then they are at Washington on Christmas with another Sunday-to-Thursday turnaround before finishing with a likely layup against the Giants in New Jersey.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

I mean, even acknowledging the fact that all the same teams that were good last season aren’t sure to be good again this season, that is a rough stretch. Three short-week games in the final six weeks of the season is no team’s idea of a good time. All four of the Cowboys’ post-bye road games are in different time zones than the one they play in. And all four of their post-bye home games are against teams that made the playoffs last season.

If the Cowboys want to take their turn in their annual flip-flopping of the NFC East title between them and the Eagles, they may have to build up a big pre-bye division lead.