Four-Team Race for the NFL Draft’s Top Pick: Who Will Land No. 1?
The 2025 NFL Draft is fast approaching, and the race for the coveted No. 1 overall pick is heating up. With just a few weeks left in the regular season, the picture is becoming clearer. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) projections, the New York Giants, New England Patriots, and Carolina Panthers each have at least a 10% chance of securing the top pick. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders could re-enter the mix depending on the outcome of their Monday night matchup against the Falcons.
To break it all down, ESPN’s NFL Nation reporters and draft analyst Matt Miller have taken a closer look at these struggling franchises. How did they end up here? What’s next for them? And most importantly, how might they use the No. 1 pick? Let’s dive in, starting with the team most likely to land the top spot: the New York Giants.
New York Giants (2-12)
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 40.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 90.7%
The biggest problem this season: The Giants’ offense has been a disaster, averaging a league-worst 14.4 points per game. They’ve cycled through four quarterbacks, none of whom have been able to stay upright behind a porous offensive line. Outside of rookie Malik Nabers, the team lacks playmakers, and depth issues plague the roster.
Sizing up the remaining schedule: The Giants face the Falcons, Colts, and Eagles to close out the season. While the Eagles may rest their starters in Week 18, the Giants are still underdogs in all three matchups. A 12-game losing streak to end the season is a real possibility.
What we’re hearing on offseason moves: Despite owner John Mara’s October vote of confidence in coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen, a league-worst record in Year 3 could force an organizational overhaul. Impending free agents like Darius Slayton and Azeez Ojulari may not want to return to a team in turmoil.
What they could do with the top pick: The Giants are desperate for a quarterback after releasing Daniel Jones. Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, who has thrown 35 touchdown passes this season, is the top-ranked QB in the class. His accuracy, toughness, and explosive playmaking make him the ideal choice for New York.
New England Patriots (3-11)
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 25.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 89.4%
The biggest problem this season: The Patriots’ offensive line has been a revolving door, with nine different configurations in 13 games. They rank dead last in pass block win rate, and their receiving corps lacks a true threat. Even the defense, typically a strength, has regressed under first-year head coach Jerod Mayo.
Sizing up the remaining schedule: The Patriots face the Bills twice and the Chargers, making their final stretch the toughest in the league, according to ESPN Analytics. Their best shot at a win might come in Week 18 if the Bills rest their starters.
What we’re hearing on offseason moves: With approximately $96 million in cap space, the Patriots are expected to be aggressive in free agency. Both Mayo and EVP Eliot Wolf are likely to return, as owner Robert Kraft anticipated growing pains in their first year.
What they could do with the top pick: The Patriots need help everywhere except quarterback. Texas’ Kelvin Banks Jr., the top-ranked offensive tackle, could be their choice. Banks has allowed just 0.3% pressure over 696 snaps this season, making him a cornerstone for their rebuild.
Carolina Panthers (3-11)
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 13.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 86.1%
The biggest problem this season: Injuries have decimated the Panthers’ defense, which ranks last in the league. Losing Pro Bowl lineman Derrick Brown and linebacker Shaq Thompson early in the season left the unit too thin to compete.
Sizing up the remaining schedule: The Panthers face Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta, all of whom are fighting for playoff spots. A 3-14 finish seems likely.
What we’re hearing on offseason moves: The Panthers are sticking with quarterback Bryce Young, who has shown enough promise to keep his starting job. They’ll focus on adding an edge rusher in free agency and the draft.
What they could do with the top pick: Colorado’s Travis Hunter, a two-way star, could be the perfect fit. Hunter’s versatility as a wide receiver and cornerback would provide an immediate boost on both sides of the ball.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 8.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 48.8%
The biggest problem this season: The Raiders’ quarterback situation has been a mess. Injuries and poor play have derailed their offense, with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell both sidelined.
Sizing up the remaining schedule: The Raiders face the Jaguars, Saints, and Chargers. A win against Jacksonville could knock them out of the running for the top pick.
What we’re hearing on offseason moves: Coach Antonio Pierce and GM Tom Telesco may not both return, and new minority owner Tom Brady could play a role in shaping the team’s future.
What they could do with the top pick: The Raiders need a quarterback. Colorado’s Sanders and Miami’s Cam Ward are both strong options, with Ward’s dual-threat ability making him particularly intriguing.
Originally Written by: Jordan Raanan
