Facts vs. Feelings: Navigating Fantasy Football Playoffs with Data and Heart
Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggests otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.
This past weekend, I found myself in a local theater, supporting a friend (and fellow fantasy football leaguemate) in a production of Samuel Beckett’s existential masterpiece, “Waiting for Godot.” The play, a minimalist exploration of life’s absurdity, revolves around two aging friends waiting for someone who never arrives. It’s a story that’s as much about the waiting as it is about the characters themselves. And as I sat there, surrounded by a mix of theatergoers—some laughing wildly, others dozing off—I couldn’t help but draw a parallel to the waiting game we play in fantasy football.
Whether it’s waiting for a breakout performance, a player to return from injury, or simply the next week’s matchups, fantasy football is its own kind of existential exercise. Do we wait patiently, or do we act impulsively? Do we trust the data, or do we follow our gut? As we head into the playoffs, these questions become even more pressing. So, let’s channel Beckett’s Vladimir and declare: “Let us not waste our time in idle discourse! Let us do something, while we have the chance!”
It’s playoff time, baby. Let’s dive into the players who could make or break your fantasy season in Week 15.
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings
Who better to kick off this existential journey than Sam Darnold, a man once haunted by “seeing ghosts”? Since landing in Minnesota, Darnold has exorcised those demons and is quietly having a career year. Currently ranked as fantasy’s QB7 overall, he’s averaging over 18.6 fantasy points per game. That average is bolstered by a monster 34.6-point performance in Week 14, but even before that, Darnold had a solid floor, scoring at least 19 points in seven of his first 13 games.
With the return of T.J. Hockenson and the emergence of Jordan Addison, Darnold’s production has soared. He’s thrown two or more touchdown passes in 10 of 13 games this season, a feat matched only by Joe Burrow. Heading into Week 15, Darnold faces a Chicago defense that has allowed six passing touchdowns in its last three games. He’s a top-8 QB option this week, and if you’re still doubting him, it’s time to reconsider.
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns
Jerome Ford might not be a standalone fantasy star, but he’s quietly eating into Nick Chubb’s workload. Ford has averaged 9.5 carries per game with Chubb in the lineup over the past two weeks and has been the more efficient rusher, posting 4.6 yards per carry compared to Chubb’s 3.1. He’s also shown pass-catching ability, with nine receptions since Cleveland’s Week 10 bye.
With the Browns officially eliminated from playoff contention, there’s a chance they could shut Chubb down early, making Ford a sneaky stash for Week 16’s plus matchup against Cincinnati. If you’re looking for a potential playoff hero, Ford might be your guy.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Travis Etienne Jr. has been a frustrating player to roster this season. Despite his talent, he’s averaging just nine carries per game, and his workload has been steadily decreasing. In Week 14, rookie Tank Bigsby out-touched Etienne 19-8 and out-snapped him 52% to 48%.
While Etienne has been more involved in the passing game, his lack of rushing volume makes him a risky start in Week 15. If you have other options like Isiah Pacheco or D’Andre Swift, it might be time to bench Etienne.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a model of consistency this season, scoring 10+ fantasy points in 11 of 12 games. However, his ceiling has been lower in recent weeks, as he hasn’t cleared 12.5 points or scored a touchdown since Week 11. The good news? St. Brown has a prime opportunity to bounce back this week against a Buffalo defense that has struggled against slot receivers. Expect the “Sun God” to shine once again in what’s projected to be a high-scoring game.
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
Rookie Malik Nabers has been a target magnet, leading all wide receivers in target share (34.4%) and ranking fourth in total targets (11.6 per game). Unfortunately, those opportunities haven’t translated into consistent production, thanks to the Giants’ revolving door at quarterback. But with matchups against Baltimore, Atlanta, and Indianapolis on the horizon, Nabers has a chance to finish the season strong. Consider him a top-10 WR option for the fantasy playoffs.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
It’s time to face the harsh reality: Kyle Pitts is no longer a viable fantasy option. He hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points in five straight games and has seen his snap share shrink to 58%. While the Raiders’ defense presents a favorable matchup, Pitts’ recent lack of production makes him impossible to trust. If you’re still holding out hope, it might be time to let go.
As we head into the final stretch of the fantasy season, remember: the waiting game is part of the journey. Whether you’re riding high or scraping by, make the most of the time you have. Good luck in Week 15!
Originally Written by: Liz Loza
