Fantasy Football Matchup Rankings: Who to Start and Sit This Week
Let’s face it, fantasy football managers: making those weekly lineup decisions can feel like solving a Rubik’s Cube blindfolded. It’s the ultimate test of strategy, research, and sometimes just plain luck. But don’t worry, we’ve got you covered with matchup rankings that break down the best and worst positional matchups for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. These rankings are based on Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (Adj. FPA), which evaluates how defenses perform relative to the difficulty of their schedules. Let’s dive into the details and help you dominate your league this week!
What Are Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (Adj. FPA)?
Adj. FPA measures how far above or below their average fantasy points players perform against a specific defense. A positive number means the matchup is favorable, while a negative number means it’s unfavorable. Keep in mind, these rankings consider all players at a position, so if a team uses multiple running backs or wide receivers, the averages reflect the entire group’s performance.
One important note: matchups are just one piece of the puzzle. A favorable matchup doesn’t guarantee success, and an unfavorable one doesn’t mean you should automatically bench a star player. For a more comprehensive guide on who to start and sit, check out ESPN’s weekly rankings.
All fantasy points referenced are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchup Highlight: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (vs. New England Patriots)
Kyler Murray has struggled against tougher defenses this season, averaging just 14.0 fantasy points against the eight stingiest defenses for quarterbacks. But here’s the good news: the Patriots are not one of those defenses. In fact, they’ve allowed three consecutive quarterbacks to score over 21 fantasy points, including the mobile Anthony Richardson (21.16 points in Week 13). This matchup kicks off a dream stretch for Murray, as his next three opponents (NE, @CAR, @LAR) all rank among the nine worst in Adj. FPA to quarterbacks.
Matchup to Avoid: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
Jalen Hurts is a fantasy stud, ranking as the No. 4 quarterback this season with a 21.7 weekly average. However, this week’s matchup against the Steelers is a tough one. Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed a single quarterback to score 20 fantasy points against them this season, and only four have reached 15 points. They’ve also been particularly effective against rushing quarterbacks, limiting the league’s top rushing QBs to just 9.3 points per game. Hurts is a risky play this week.
- Defenses to Avoid: Steelers (-5.9 Adj. FPA), Bills (-3.4 Adj. FPA)
- Defenses to Exploit: Jets (7.2 Adj. FPA), Bengals (6.5 Adj. FPA)
Running Backs
Matchup Highlight: Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders (at New Orleans Saints)
Brian Robinson Jr. is trending up after scoring 17.9 PPR points last week on a 45% snap rate. With Austin Ekeler on injured reserve, Robinson is the clear lead back for Washington. The Saints have been a goldmine for opposing running backs, allowing 18+ points to the position in four of their last five games. Their league-worst 0.80 points per rushing attempt makes Robinson a must-start this week.
Matchup to Avoid: James Cook, Buffalo Bills (at Detroit Lions)
The Lions have been a nightmare for running backs, allowing just three 20-point performances all season. James Cook, who relies heavily on touchdowns for fantasy production (37% of his points), faces a tough road against a defense that has allowed only 15 goal-to-go rushing plays all year. Cook is a high-risk, low-reward option this week.
- Defenses to Avoid: Lions (-7.9 Adj. FPA), Patriots (-5.6 Adj. FPA)
- Defenses to Exploit: Giants (6.9 Adj. FPA), Colts (3.9 Adj. FPA)
Wide Receivers
Matchup Highlight: Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
Jakobi Meyers has been a target machine, seeing double-digit looks in three straight games and averaging 17.2 PPR points during that stretch. The Falcons have been a disaster against wide receivers lately, allowing seven 11+ point performances in their last five games. Meyers is a strong WR2 play this week.
Matchup to Avoid: A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Steelers)
Steelers cornerback Joey Porter has been a lockdown defender, allowing a 58% catch rate and no touchdowns in coverage. The Steelers have the league’s best Adj. FPA (-3.6) against No. 1 wide receivers. Brown’s recent dip in targets (5.9 per game over the last eight weeks) makes him a risky WR2 this week.
- Defenses to Avoid: Steelers (-10.7 Adj. FPA), Giants (-9.0 Adj. FPA)
- Defenses to Exploit: Falcons (16.4 Adj. FPA), Bengals (9.3 Adj. FPA)
Tight Ends
Matchup Highlight: David Njoku, Cleveland Browns (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
David Njoku has been on fire, leading all tight ends with 29 targets and 43.4 PPR points over the last two weeks. The Chiefs have struggled against tight ends who run routes from the slot, making Njoku a top-tier option this week.
Matchup to Avoid: Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Chargers)
Otton’s usage has dipped since Week 11, and the Chargers have been elite against tight ends, allowing just four to score 10+ points all season. Avoid him this week.
- Defenses to Avoid: Chargers (-6.5 Adj. FPA), Falcons (-3.7 Adj. FPA)
- Defenses to Exploit: Browns (11.0 Adj. FPA), Dolphins (5.0 Adj. FPA)
Originally Written by: Mike Clay
