Cowboys Shock Commanders in Wild Week 12 Upset
Week 12 of the NFL season delivered one of the most jaw-dropping games of the year, and it came courtesy of the Dallas Cowboys. In a matchup that had bettors and fans alike glued to their screens, the Cowboys pulled off a stunning upset over the Washington Commanders, winning in the final seconds of a game that will be talked about for weeks to come.
Heading into the game, Dallas was a massive 11-point underdog, opening at +9.5 at ESPN BET. The Commanders were heavily favored, with over 70% of public bettors backing Washington at multiple sportsbooks. At ESPN BET, a staggering 90% of bets and 87% of the handle were placed on the Commanders’ moneyline. BetMGM also reported that Dallas, listed at +450, was the third-most-bet underdog to win outright on Sunday.
Despite the odds, the Cowboys never let Washington get too comfortable. The Commanders’ largest lead was a mere six points in the third quarter, and Dallas capitalized on Washington’s struggles. Bettors took notice, with 66% of live moneyline bets at ESPN BET backing the Cowboys as the game unfolded.
A Wild Finish for the Ages
The game reached a fever pitch in the final nine minutes of regulation, with both teams combining for an astonishing 41 points. According to ESPN Research, this marked the most points scored in the last nine minutes of a game since 2012. Up until that point, the two teams had only managed 19 combined points, making the late-game explosion a dream scenario for those who bet the over, which closed around 45.
Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, described the outcome as a win for over bettors. “The over in the Cowboys-Commanders game was the best result of the morning for the customers, although it took a while to get across the line,” Mucklow said in an email to ESPN. He also noted that it was the second-biggest decision of the day for the book.
With this victory, the Cowboys became the first double-digit underdog to win outright this season. According to ESPN Research, this is the latest in a season for such an upset to occur since 2016. Additionally, both Dallas and the Carolina Panthers covered as double-digit underdogs, snapping a five-game ATS (against the spread) winning streak for big favorites.
Other Underdogs Make Noise
It wasn’t just the Cowboys making waves on Sunday. The Tennessee Titans also pulled off an upset, defeating the Houston Texans 32-27 despite being 7.5-point underdogs. This marked the Titans’ first ATS win in seven games, ending a brutal stretch where they had gone 1-9 against the number.
Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers nearly pulled off a monumental upset against the Kansas City Chiefs, closing as +10.5 underdogs. Although they fell short, the Panthers have now covered in three straight games for the first time since 2022.
As for the Chiefs, their narrow victory continued a troubling trend for bettors. Kansas City is 10-1 straight up but just 4-7 ATS this season, tied for the third-worst spread record in the league. The Chiefs have failed to cover in five straight games, matching their longest ATS losing streak under head coach Andy Reid.
Big Bets and Notable Trends
- A bettor at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas placed a $1 million wager on the Los Angeles Rams +3 (-120) in their game against the Philadelphia Eagles. The potential payout? A cool $1,833,333.
- The San Francisco 49ers closed as 6.5-point underdogs to the Green Bay Packers, snapping their streak of 36 consecutive regular-season games as the favorite. This was the third-longest such streak in the Super Bowl era.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving was a hot topic in the prop betting market. His Over 14.5 yards for the longest run was the most popular player prop at DraftKings, and he delivered with a 56-yard scamper. However, bettors who took him not to score a touchdown at -200 odds were left disappointed after his 6-yard touchdown run.
Another trend that bookmakers are noticing this season is the dominance of favorites in afternoon games. “The morning games were close to breaking even; the book’s saving grace was the upsets in Houston and Washington,” Mucklow said. “As seems to be the case each week, the afternoon games continue to belong to the customers, with favorites going 34-11 for the season straight up.”
College Football Betting Drama
In college football, the Colorado Buffaloes suffered a significant setback with a 37-21 loss to Kansas. Colorado had been one of the most talked-about teams in the nation, and their loss was a blow to bettors who had backed them heavily. The Buffaloes had covered in eight straight games, the longest active streak in the nation, before this defeat.
Despite the loss, Colorado’s Travis Hunter remains a bright spot. The two-way star had 125 receiving yards, two touchdowns, seven tackles, and a pass defensed, solidifying his status as the Heisman Trophy favorite with odds of -700 at ESPN BET.
Elsewhere, Ole Miss saw its national championship odds plummet after a 24-17 loss to Florida, while SMU clinched a spot in the ACC championship game with a dominant win over Virginia. Ohio State continued to impress, easily covering its -10.5 spread against Indiana and shortening its national championship odds from +300 to +260.
Looking Ahead
With underdogs making noise and favorites continuing to dominate in certain spots, Week 12 was a rollercoaster for bettors. As the NFL and college football seasons heat up, the betting landscape remains as unpredictable as ever. Stay tuned for more drama, upsets, and betting buzz in the weeks to come!
Originally Written by: Doug Greenberg and David Purdum
