NBA Insiders: The Wild West Playoff Race Heats Up
Apr 7, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
As we approach the thrilling conclusion of the 2024-25 NBA regular season, the anticipation is palpable. Teams across the league are gearing up for what promises to be an unforgettable postseason battle. The Western Conference, in particular, is a hotbed of competition, with the race for playoff spots tighter than ever. The Nos. 3 to 8 seeds are in a constant state of flux, separated by a mere 1½ games at most. It’s a nail-biting scenario that has fans on the edge of their seats.
All eyes are on the Minnesota Timberwolves, LA Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, and Golden State Warriors, all vying for that coveted No. 6 seed to avoid the play-in tournament. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Lakers are on the brink of securing their first top-six seed since the 2019-20 campaign. On the flip side, the Phoenix Suns are teetering on the edge of elimination, desperately trying to catch the Sacramento Kings for a shot at the play-in.
The Western Conference drama is reaching a fever pitch, with questions swirling about the futures of stars like Kevin Durant and the strategic maneuvers of Stephen Curry and the Warriors. The final day of the regular season on Sunday could be the ultimate decider in this wild race.
Here’s what our NBA insiders Michael C. Wright, Brian Windhorst, Dave McMenamin, Ohm Youngmisuk, Tim MacMahon, Kevin Pelton, and Zach Kram have to say about this wild West.
What’s next for Ja Morant and the Grizzlies as they fight for home-court advantage under an interim coach?
The Memphis Grizzlies have finally broken through under interim coach Tuomas Iisalo, with Ja Morant delivering a buzzer-beater to cap a 30-point performance against the Miami Heat. With the regular season winding down, the Grizzlies must focus on the elements of Iisalo’s system that will best position them for playoff success. Iisalo aims to feature Morant more offensively, but the team must also optimize Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane. General manager Zach Kleiman is seeking “clarity of direction” under Iisalo, and a surprising playoff run could stabilize the situation between the team and Morant following the abrupt firing of Taylor Jenkins. — Michael C. Wright
Which team in the West poses the biggest threat to the Oklahoma City Thunder?
The Denver Nuggets, the last Western team to win the NBA title (2023), are the most likely to upset the Oklahoma City Thunder, who boast the best point differential in league history. Nikola Jokic is a formidable matchup problem, even for a team with 7-foot rim protectors like Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Jokic’s 35 points, 18 rebounds, and 8 assists in a March 10 win over Oklahoma City, aided by Jamal Murray‘s 34 points, secured a 2-2 split in the regular-season series. The Nuggets will need similar production from Murray to overcome Oklahoma City’s top-ranked defense, led by Lu Dort. — Tim MacMahon
What’s next for the Suns if they miss the play-in entirely?
Missing the playoffs with a $400 million payroll, including luxury taxes, is a nightmare scenario for the Suns. Trading Bradley Beal is complicated by his no-trade clause, and while the Suns don’t want to trade Kevin Durant, their options for escaping the second apron all seem to lead to him. Durant, who will be 37 next season, is still worth his $55 million salary, but his potential two-year, $120 million max extension may not attract suitors. The Suns might have to choose between getting a desirable package of players and draft capital or settling for flexibility. The Clippers’ decision to prioritize flexibility over retaining Paul George last summer could serve as a model for the Suns. — Brian Windhorst
What will it take for the Lakers to make an NBA Finals run?
The Lakers need an accommodating draw. With a few games left, they could finish anywhere from No. 3 to No. 8 in the West. Securing the No. 6 spot or better would give them a week to prepare for the playoffs and allow injured players like LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Rui Hachimura time to heal. Finishing No. 4 or better would give them home-court advantage, where they have the second-best home record in the West. Coach JJ Redick expressed a desire for home-court advantage, saying, “We’d like to have home court [advantage].” The Lakers would prefer to face the Grizzlies, given their playoff success against them in 2023, or the Clippers, avoiding travel and enjoying home-court support. Avoiding a showdown with Oklahoma City until the conference finals would be ideal. — Dave McMenamin
The team the Warriors should want to avoid in the first round is: _______.
Oklahoma City. Falling into the play-in tournament would be a setback for the Warriors, who have been holding onto the sixth spot. If they drop below sixth, they would lose a valuable week off and face a young, athletic Thunder squad. Despite their championship pedigree, the Warriors would face a tough matchup against MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, emerging stars Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, and a top defense led by Lu Dort and Alex Caruso. The Warriors would prefer to avoid the league’s best team in the first round and use their time off to prepare. — Ohm Youngmisuk
What’s behind the Timberwolves’ late-season surge, and is it sustainable?
The Timberwolves have maintained a top-10 defense all season, but their offense has surged recently. Since March, they’ve had the third-best offense, thanks to hot shooting from Mike Conley (53.2% from 3-point range) and Donte DiVincenzo (43% from deep). Jaden McDaniels (38.2%) and Julius Randle (36.6%) have also improved, providing spacing for Anthony Edwards. However, sustaining this level of shooting is unlikely, and the Timberwolves have benefited from a relatively easy schedule. — Zach Kram
What do the projections say the likely first-round matchups in the West will be?
With less than a week left in the regular season, the Western Conference playoff picture remains uncertain. Oklahoma City is the only team with a secure position at the top. Unlike the Eastern Conference, where the 4-5 matchup is more predictable, no single Western matchup occurs in more than 27% of simulations using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index. The most likely series, between the Grizzlies and the Houston Rockets, may not be set until after the first night of play-in action. — Kevin Pelton
Originally Written by: NBA insiders
