NBA Cup Semifinals: Betting Angles, MVP Picks, and Why Trae Young Could Steal the Show
Vegas, baby! The NBA is back in Sin City, and this time, it’s not for Summer League. The league has returned to Las Vegas to crown the winner of the inaugural Emirates NBA Cup. After months of anticipation, the final four teams are set, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. The Eastern bracket features the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks taking on the third-seeded Atlanta Hawks, while the Western bracket pits the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder against the second-seeded Houston Rockets. It’s a showdown of elite talent, and the buzz is palpable.
According to ESPN BET, the Thunder are the clear favorites to win the Emirates NBA Cup at +125. They’re followed by the Bucks (+240), Rockets (+450), and Hawks (+525). As for the NBA Cup Tournament MVP race, the odds mirror the team rankings. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the pack at +115, with Giannis Antetokounmpo (+320), Alperen Sengun (+600), and Trae Young (+850) rounding out the top contenders.
While the Thunder and SGA are the favorites, let’s be honest—where’s the fun in going with the chalk? This tournament has all the makings of a wild ride, and there are plenty of intriguing angles to explore. Let’s break down the matchups and some potential value plays for bettors and fans alike.
Atlanta Hawks +3.5 over Milwaukee Bucks (-105); Trae Young to win Cup MVP (+850)
Don’t sleep on the Hawks. They’re coming into the semifinals red-hot, having won seven of their last eight games. That stretch includes two wins over the Eastern Conference-leading Cleveland Cavaliers and a dominant 15-point victory over the Bucks in Milwaukee. If there’s one thing we’ve learned from years of March Madness, it’s that a hot team is a dangerous team in a single-elimination format.
And speaking of March Madness, another lesson from the tournament is the power of a dominant lead guard. Enter Trae Young. The Hawks’ star is a walking highlight reel and the engine of their offense. He leads the NBA with 12.2 assists per game and has already posted five 30-point, 10-assist double-doubles this season. Just last week, he dropped a jaw-dropping 31-point, 20-assist performance against the Lakers. If the Hawks pull off the upset, Young is the clear frontrunner for MVP honors, making his +850 odds an enticing play.
Houston Rockets +5.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder (-106)
Defense wins championships—or at least keeps games close. The Thunder and Rockets rank second and third in the NBA in fewest points allowed, and both teams showcased their defensive prowess in the quarterfinals. The Thunder held the Mavericks to just 104 points, while the Rockets stifled the Warriors, holding them to a mere 90 points. With both teams leaning on their defense, this semifinal matchup has all the makings of a grind-it-out affair.
These two squads have already faced off twice this season, with each team winning on its home court. Now, on a neutral site, the Rockets have a legitimate shot to keep things close. Getting 5.5 points in a defensive battle could be a sneaky good value play for Houston backers.
Damian Lillard to win Cup MVP (+1800)
Let’s talk about Dame Time. The Bucks may have the second-shortest odds to win the Cup, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing at an MVP level, but don’t overlook Damian Lillard. If the Bucks are going to hoist the trophy, it’s likely because Lillard is lighting it up. He’s got the scoring chops, the clutch gene, and the ability to take over games on the biggest stage.
Lillard has been on a tear lately, scoring 25 or more points in seven of his last eight games. His best stretch came in a back-to-back against the Cavaliers, where he averaged 38.5 points, 8.0 assists, and 7.5 three-pointers per game. If he replicates that kind of performance in the semifinals and finals, he could easily challenge Giannis for MVP honors. At +1800, Lillard’s odds are a steal for anyone looking for a high-upside play.
Key Takeaways
- The Thunder are the favorites to win the Emirates NBA Cup at +125, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the MVP race at +115.
- The Hawks are a dangerous underdog, riding a hot streak and led by the electrifying Trae Young, who’s +850 to win MVP.
- Defense will be the name of the game in the Thunder-Rockets matchup, making Houston +5.5 an intriguing bet.
- Damian Lillard’s +1800 MVP odds offer tremendous value if the Bucks win the Cup.
With the semifinals set to tip off, the stage is set for an unforgettable finish to the NBA’s newest tournament. Whether you’re rooting for the favorites or hoping for an underdog story, one thing is certain: Vegas is about to deliver some basketball magic.
Originally Written by: André Snellings
